NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 4 am tomorrow morning. I honestly think we could be under one by then. These long duration light precipitation events must make NWS pull its hair out. Reasonable that much of the area could get >5”, but over like 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: with the Storm starting Wedneday afternoon...when will Yoga post our winter storm watch copy and paste? Well not sure who Yoga is lol... but if YODA is awake... post it he may at the 4am cycle 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Oh my... that should mean there are some monsters in the indvids 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: These long duration light precipitation events must make NWS pull its hair out. Reasonable that much of the area could get >5”, but over like 48 hrs? This is what LWX says in their definition of a WSWatch -- https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#:~:text=A Winter Storm Warning is,AND%2FOR Winter Storm Watch A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh my... that should mean there are some monsters in the indvids I find this graphic best for showing the "monster" potential. DC-south (really I-81) has the best shot right now if you believe the ens. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ^exactly. So we may not hit warning criteria, although it could be pretty close in lots of places. A watch is probably reasonable by tomorrow either way unless something major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Harrisonburg jackpot potential would check out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh my... that should mean there are some monsters in the indvids 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro has been a little too far south all winter...this is PERFECT where it is now for an eventual DC to Baltimore jack! I was just about to say this.... if I was in the DC-BAL corridor I’d be thrilled to see the Max where it is right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6/25 12z EPS are whiffs, 10/25 are double digit events, everything else appears to at least a plowable snowfall for BWI, DCA, and IAD. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Oh thank god. Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times. 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times. 100%! Hell, with this season’s trends, even being just north of the northern edge of the snow Max is a great spot to be in at D3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 6/25 12z EPS are whiffs, 10/25 are double digit events, everything else appears to at least a plowable snowfall for BWI, DCA, and IAD. Aren’t there like 50 of those things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro has some really tasty panels in there. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Aren’t there like 50 of those things? I only have access to 25 of the members through my AWIPS thin client. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: This has heartbreak written all over it for me. Better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all? I actually think you’re in a great spot for QPF IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Speaking of shifts, I could see Wed trend a small bit south and then Friday trend a bit north. Looks good regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Wednesday A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. This is a lovely looking PZF. Please pan out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in along the eastern slopes of the Appalachains. Meanwhile, low pressure will be sliding by to our south. Wintry weather is expected to continue into Thursday. Still some uncertainty in regards to precipitation type for the duration of the event. Guidance overnight, which now includes the NAM, have started to trend cooler aloft, leading to a snowier solution across the region, especially the northern half. Do expect some mixing of sleet, snow, and freezing rain to occur across the southern half of the CWA. Will be tough, as usual, to pin point that mixing line at this point. This system continues into Friday morning as well, which will make this a fairly long-duration event. For the weekend, the pattern remains quite unsettled. An even colder arctic air mass will become wedged into the region Saturday, setting the stage for yet another winter weather event. First part of the day could be dry, though there is some spread there, so will maintain some chance POPs during the day. The bigger event comes late Saturday night into Sunday. Details are still fuzzy concerning temperatures aloft, thus not really sure of precip types at this point, but am growing increasingly confident in another winter storm. At this point, would certainly favor our northwestern zones, given climatology. However, plenty of time for things to change, so will continue to monitor in the coming days NWS also talking about nice accumulations. Gotta love these types of moisture feed events in our area. We historically do pretty well with them. Just need to fine tune a few details but 6+ seems quite likely for Wed into Thursday for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: DT seems pretty excited. Either that or his all caps method of typing makes it seem like he's yelling every single word How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. Agreed but besides the wording this time he simply attached today’s 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, IronTy said: Glad to see mostly hits or misses to the south. Also think there will be a double jackpot for this event. 1 in the western mountains from upslope flow and the other along the Delmarva from the coastal storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. I can't get his article out of my head from the 31st-2nd storm last weekend when things seemed to be crumbling for significant snow chances around here and he said he sees a real possibility of Baltimore/DC to get into the 18-24 inch bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 DT’s like the SREFS, not necessarily great but you dont mind having him onboard either 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I can't get his article out of my head from the 31st-2nd storm last weekend when things seemed to be crumbling for significant snow chances around here and he said he sees a real possibility of Baltimore/DC to get into the 18-24 inch bullseye. Right??? He’s a salesperson. Not a met. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 How cold is max cold period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How cold is max cold period? Thought I saw someone say lows near 0 and highs in the mid teens for one day early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How cold is max cold period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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