Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 NAM definitely the warmest model. GGEM would be the coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 so ...what are we lookin' at Will ... advisory? low end warn' ?? ... my guess is right now we are on the borderline between "special weather statement" should cover, vs Advisory... pending the Euro... Didn't see the Euro QPF but the 00z was reasonably well cyclonically formed upon exist so - it's got that goin' for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 RDPS showing heavy snow over Northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 5AM start in CT 7AM for ORH area 9AM for metro Boston sound reasonable? All days snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: so ...what are we lookin' at Will ... advisory? low end warn' ?? ... my guess is right now we are on the borderline between "special weather statement" should cover, vs Advisory... pending the Euro... Didn't see the Euro QPF but the 00z was reasonably well cyclonically formed upon exist so - it's got that goin' for it. I'm thinking 3-5ish right now for most of SNE and into S VT/S NH....a little less near the south coast and taering as you head north. But there is room for a stripe of 6-7" totals if things break right. On some of these runs, there is a banding sig....so that has to be watched. It would prob be pretty high ratios again too. Like someone gets 7" on 0.40" of QPF in a band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS albeit weak, did have lift in the DGZ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS albeit weak, did have lift in the DGZ. Yeah...I've been thinking this synopsis might over-achieve in getting that to happen, because the ambient frontogenicity ( thermal packing ...blah blah ) ...well, the front has steepness to it, so any draw up that slope is going to be efficient even if weak, in squeezing out growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 55 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looking at the individual HREF members... all of the 12z members are wetter (more QPF) than their 00z counterparts. Worth watching to see if that becomes more of a trend today. Thanks for that kind of analysis, that gets us (me) beyond just reacting to each model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ukie in the GGEM/RGEM camp with closed off 925mb mitigating warm air intrusion along south coast. South of Pike deal. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie in the GGEM/RGEM camp with closed off 925mb mitigating warm air intrusion along south coast. South of Pike deal. Dream team, there.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dream team, there.... Uncle and his son? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ukie was pretty juicy. That's a nice event for almost all of SNE and into S NH/S VT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ukie looked nice for all. Hopefully a 2-4 deal for most to build. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Uncle and his son? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Which one is the son and which one is the uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro looking good. Little warmer than 00z run at 925mb. Mix along the coast. Look best along the Pike region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice bump north on the 12Z Euro from the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro looking good. Little warmer than 00z run at 925mb. Mix along the coast. Look best along the Pike region Smidge north of 06z....sell the drunk Candien and Brit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Weathermodels.com added the off hr 06z and 18z Euro maps now with the 0z and 12z run, One less book mark, Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That's a nice sig for NW CT to the pike region up into S NH for a weenie band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Kutchie koo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Smidge north of 06z....sell the drunk Candien and Brit. Not really a huge difference when you take all the 12z models in. 20-30mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Prob see her settle back a bit at 18z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just like I’d hoped! Intensification prior to arrival! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kutchie koo Wow! And a little enhancer for Jeff, just cause he began a slow melting process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Wow! And a little enhancer for Jeff, just cause he began a slow melting process. I would have gone off of the deep end if I were up there....its been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 If the ratios look high (all that dgz stuff) I'll get excited because that'd be the 2nd biggest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a nice sig for NW CT to the pike region up into S NH for a weenie band May be prudent to take a compromise of 10:1 and Kuctchie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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