ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Well Reggie is coming in a good tick south of 06z. So much for consistent cross-guidance trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 seems locked north of pike, will see how this trends for folks to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: seems locked north of pike, will see how this trends for folks to the south That's how I feel. Another event 24 hrs to go and lots of wobbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hazey again, per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets toss the NAM. I like north trends!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I like north trends!!! I know you do lol. Everyone likes trends for their backyards on here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 26 minutes ago, dryslot said: They will be wrong, This will slide south. Brian's and your's semi-melts, or perhaps post of resignation, may have worked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 My guess is the href will look pretty nice, atleast N of the pike. Scrolling through the ARW, NMM, ext there's some pretty bullish 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not sure what NAM biases are for this sort of synoptic evolution. In past diatribes ...I have futilely attempted to encourage folks simmer down, and to consume 72 hour NAM with an extra dose of incredulity, when it comes to fuzzy deep navy blue or even magenta snow-QPF off its west Atlantic/ .. near EC cyclogenesis and track guidance. It just did it on this list gig frankly - ... post after post after posts strung together explaining how 'it could actually score a coup this time.' Lol .. No but this is not a west Atlantic cyclo - babble low. Nor is it a relay through the outer short range/ .. mid range temporal seam. Last night I was intrigued - a little ..I say that in the relative sense - by this critter because it is riding along what I see as a rather enhanced baroclinic region associated with the mean polar boundary. Right now ( and modeled throughout the week ...) the vagaries of the winds et al have managed to draped some rather breath-taking cold, astride the Canadian side of the U.S. border... As these 'little critters' zip along ...they subsequently probe plumes of that air mass down; these then mix into and homogenize the air mass quite cold within the mean E. low level wind trading around the underside of the attending polar highs up there ( synoptically suggested in this abv annotation... ) As these ripplet jet maxes that seem innocuous ( and really are in lesser circumstances ) ... zip along, they have enough momentum discontinuity to trigger some restoring inflow lift. But, because it is flowing into a rather upright ( tendency..) of the elevated frontal slope (think of it like a cold wall as opposed gentler slope), that will maximize psuedo adiabatic instability popsicle headache. Particularly in the 850 to 700 mb sigma depth. It'll come down to where the SGZ heights situated in the passage ...but ( 1994 ) and other historical examples show that almost non-discerned jet accelerations along these sort of thermally compressed frontal interfaces like you see above - which sets up for tomorrow and also persists through next weekend if you believe the general handling... - have a way of delivering goodies. It all means these little guys may over-produce. Over-produce doesn't me 38.7" of snow... it means, there's a like ...I dunno, say 30% top side that's negotiable and probably not really able to be forecast - almost synergistic, via maximizing one or two kinematic process among of a stew of minor events that by weight ... sort of hide them. ( This whole song and dance may play out again later Thursday ... then again later Saturday - this sort of nickel repetition has been pretty persistently in the models, too. ) In summary: this doesn't say where this "maximizes" .. . it just elucidates the enhanced potential/ .. native instabilities that are in place and fertility for event success. I wasn't surprised when I saw some of the overnights start double .2" liq equiv to .4 or even .5" ... Whether this comes N or S along that axis - I yeah good luck... Probably the IBM cluster LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So we praise it when it shows our snowy solution and toss when it doesn't. How many millions of posts did it take for you to figure that out? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know you do lol. Everyone likes trends for their backyards on here. You sound surprised at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: How many millions of posts did it take for you to figure that out? You have to cut him some slack he's new to the board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: You have to cut him some slack he's new to the board. we have to hope to get an overperformer for us up here before the suppression takes hold, possibly. A 3-4 incher would be nice tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 RGEM closes off at 925mb, thus mitigating the warm intrusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: we have to hope to get an overperformer for us up here before the suppression takes hold, possibly. A 3-4 incher would be nice tomorrow. This is starting to look like 2010 all over again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This is starting to look like 2010 all over again. Other than the feet of snow at my house in MD. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So we praise it when it shows our snowy solution and toss when it doesn't. Do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Other than the feet of snow at my house in MD. LOL Give it time, They should make up some ground over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICON ticked south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ICON ticked south too. kind of paltry on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: kind of paltry on qpf Yeah... definately not as juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ICON ticked south too. hope rises, then is dashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: hope rises, then is dashed. Good news is that it's the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: kind of paltry on qpf Nah heavy heavy snows north of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: This is starting to look like 2010 all over again. Well, WPC talks overnight about the artic air slowing down and being focused more in the center and midwest. that could be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Y'allz ability to disconnect from rationalism and apparent understanding, and still allow a single guidance depiction evoke "dashing" of anything ... is really rather remarkable - lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Nah heavy heavy snows north of pike nope, actually less north than south so you have the ICON going for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Y'allz ability to disconnect from rationalism and apparent understanding, and still allow a single guidance depiction evoke "dashing" of anything ... is really rather remarkable - lol... We are post-modern in here. Rationality has died, in fact The Enlightenment is at risk. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'm hoping for an inch out of this thing so I can go cross country skiing across from my house two days this winter instead of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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