HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looks like a minor event also on Feb 9 2-4" in some area... rain south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 tuesday evening? Maybe some turns at lovely Bousquet mountain after work for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: tuesday evening? Maybe some turns at lovely Bousquet mountain after work for me! Durning the daytime. Not expecting much, but possibly better than today for some. Still have some spread in the track of the surface low, which will have implications on how far north the rain/snow mix will be. As of right now this looks most likely across the South Coast, while the rest of the region sees mainly snow. In addition how quickly this low deepens will impact how much snowfall we receive. If it spins up quicker than we will be able to squeeze out a bit more snowfall versus a slower spin up. Have leaned toward the WPC guidance, which is closer to the EPS/GEFS. This depicts a weaker wave and less snowfall than previously anticipated. Matches up well with the decrease in the 24 hr snowfall amounts AOA 3" per EPS probabilities - right now it shows roughly a 10 to 40 percent chance with the highest chances along the MA/NH border. The previous run ranged from roughly 20 percent 60 percent. Right now totals are between 1-3 inches generally across the interior and a dusting to an inch for the south coast. Not completely out of the question there are some 4" amounts across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Could see a few places needing an Advisory, but will need to see if the downward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 NAM the warmest, others snowy for most (not including Cape Ann of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Any bit counts right now. Be nice to see the later week storm produce for the berkshires as well. Not liking the slight southern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looks like a solid 3-6” event for pretty much all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a solid 3-6” event for pretty much all of SNE Hopefully the 3k NAM is too far north. It has the hot hand though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This pattern contributing to Tuesday ... situates throughout the rest of the week, too. The "low" on Tuesday escapes seaward, and there's really only negligible suppression south of the apparent baroclinic axis .. such that it persists roughly along the 39th parallel through the end of the weak - contributing to Steve's thread impetus... but that part of this blurred by fast flow uncertainties... I mentioned this in the other thread ( month ); this is a powderkeg week ... probably through the 15th .. 17th for that matter. We are getting a semi- permanent + PP draped out from the NP/S Manitoba to Ontario .. under which around that 39 there is a long easterly flow collocated with ton of thickness packing. It's spring already along the Gulf of Mexico interface region - meanwhile, sub -20C plumes of air are amassed under said surface ridging over S/SE Canada. That's gas, plus air ... well mixed to the proper detonation ratio - where's the match? What makes this particularly interesting for me is that while all the above is setting up and synoptically evolving in ALL guidance through the mid/ latter week ( possibly beyond ..), the GEFs and EPS indicate a -1 to +1 SD correction in the PNA mode ... It's like a crime to transmit that much PNA mode change in the stormy direction, whilst that powderkeg exists ...and dare NOT storm.. Wow. Yet, all we get is/are these piddling WAA bursters and shrapnel faux cyclogenesis smears like Tuesday - That said, and to point ( sorry - just wanted to cover a bit about the over-arcing theme of the week/ .. next weekend ) Tuesday I think has a shot at over-producing. Mind you .. that doesn't mean calling the Nat Guard and putting them on stand-by or anything .. But, that intense baroclinic gradient is so rich that anything that breaks out gets a kind of 'synergistic' feed-back/constructive interference and even weakly close attending cyclones may end up with a couple of sneaky parallel bands on the flop side of the polar boundary bulge.. You can kind of see that in the QPF management in these runs. I love nickle and dime patterns - ... It's almost like Tuesday, Steve's notice for late Thursday ...and that unfocused aspect later in the weekend, is all one event - just different chapters in a novella. And, while this is all happening, there's a back ground potential to see something more important emerge given to tandem -AO nadir ( timed for 7 days from now), together with the -1 to +1 SD PNA.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Hopefully the 3k NAM is too far north. It has the hot hand though. You’re not running anything that far north. I mean I suppose you could have a snow to ice deal but with everything else snow to the coast.. toss it until other stuff shows it. Nam does better with coastals qpf issues aside . This is just overrunning basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You’re not running anything that far north. I mean I suppose you could have a snow to ice deal but with everything else snow to the coast.. toss it until other stuff shows it. Nam does better with coastals qpf issues aside . This is just overrunning basically Yeah I agree with you Kevin. I think the blocking should tend to keep things south of CT track wise. Should be a good refresher to prime for a bigger event at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a solid 3-6” event for pretty much all of SNE Ceiling .. perhaps. I'm thinking it's 4 ...maybe 5" over achiever frankly... I think there's a cap on the cyclogenesis proficiency - it doesn't have a lot of jet mechanics for inducing the cyclonic scaffolding of jet structures... but, it has intense baroclinic/thickness packing ...so, any UVM is maximizing due to a steep elevate frontal escape ...and with a cold atmosphere in place, an IB/ SGZ efficiency look to it - ...have to roll up sleeves and look at discrete model products and other machine assists to prove it, but just based upon my experience/ synoptic overview combined - sure other Mets have hot takes too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Blocking sucks. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ceiling .. perhaps. I'm thinking it's 4 ...maybe 5" over achiever frankly... I think there's a cap on the cyclogenesis proficiency - it doesn't have a lot of jet mechanics for inducing the cyclonic scaffolding of jet structures... but, it has intense baroclinic/thickness packing ...so, any UVM is maximizing due to a steep elevate frontal escape ...and with a cold atmosphere in place, an IB/ SGZ efficiency look to it - ...have to roll up sleeves and look at discrete model products and other machine assists to prove it, but just based upon my experience/ synoptic overview combined - sure other Mets have hot takes too lol Yeah agree Tippy. Just not enough impetus to get into warning levels . Minimal forcing. You can envision a big area of light to moderate snow , but not great snow growth.. so you slowly pile up 3-6” of sand . A Ray favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’d say 1-3 south of like and 3-5 north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah agree Tippy. Just not enough impetus to get into warning levels . Minimal forcing. You can envision a big area of light to moderate snow , but not great snow growth.. so you slowly pile up 3-6” of sand . A Ray favorite Well that's the thing .. it's minimal forcing ( yes ) like you say, but the growth would be decent with UVM feeding the SGZ ... that's sort of how we get to over-produced results. Maximizing one or two kinematic processes among a stew of modest aspects and suddenly we got 5" of solid advisory - But agreed with steady light to moderate, ... perhaps stacking by virtue of the over-arching pattern being the primary cause, it allows it to carry on for 12 hours that way ...So we may end up some interesting amounts for being only a vague cyclone mechanics. Yup - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d say 1-3 south of like and 3-5 north For now ..yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just noting also ... fwiw - the Euro/GGEM/GFS/NAVGEM/ICON/KOREAN/NAM/JMA/EPS/GEFS rule appears in effect - they all have a weakly closed isobaric bulge with qpf lobe over top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d say 1-3 south of like and 3-5 north That seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That seems likely Actually it’s north and south if one looks past snow maps . They made that mistake yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually it’s north and south if one looks past snow maps . They made that mistake yesterday I dunno... ULL to me seems to favor the Pike area... you to ORH, but splitting hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 NAM looks to have caved for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Snow should break out in CT and W MA overnight Monday , and progress NE early Tuesday AM. Probably a school closing day in CT due to the timing. Seems like a solid high end advisory event 3-6” even to the coast . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d say 1-3 south of like and 3-5 north Yea, I went similar for First... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 What are we thinking? 2-4”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: What are we thinking? 2-4”? 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-6 Yeah 18z euro looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This could be heaven for everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Time to peek at this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 looking at maps, this looks to start late morning Tuesday.. hopefully we can add another 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nice look on NAM for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now