nsof Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Watches will put up in the 3pm - 4pm or so range. I don't think warnings... Watches wouldn't make sense with the storm mainly being tonight-tomorrow morning. Will stay as WWA or be upgraded to a WSW. WSW criteria is also different for SEPA compared to SNJ so it will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I think WSW? Who really cares....give me 2-4" and I could give two shits if I am under a WWA or WSW. My new bar is 4.5” for this one now lol. I love to set myself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsof Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Within 12 hours of the event, here is Mt. Holly's criteria FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, nsof said: Watches wouldn't make sense with the storm mainly being tonight-tomorrow morning. Will stay as WWA or be upgraded to a WSW. WSW criteria is also different for SEPA compared to SNJ so it will be interesting to watch. I may be I'm losing my mind but I don't remember only a WWA for/a 2-4" event. (if that stays) And I don't remember a warning for 2-4" (again, if that stays)...it would freak people out. A Watch makes sense to me....tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsof Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I may be I'm losing my mind but I don't remember only a WWA for/a 2-4" event. (if that stays) And I don't remember a warning for 2-4" (again, if that stays)...it would freak people out. A Watch makes sense to me....tough call. Lol not using your mind. This might help though. https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx#:~:text=Usually issued 6 to 18,for at least three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrweissm Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I may be I'm losing my mind but I don't remember only a WWA for/a 2-4" event. (if that stays) And I don't remember a warning for 2-4" (again, if that stays)...it would freak people out. A Watch makes sense to me....tough call. I don't think it makes sense to leave as a watch. Someone would have to make a decision and either leave as advisory or move right to warning. The time to issue a watch has passed. If it was me and 5''s is the threshold I would probably go with warning if there was better chance at 5'' or more. If i thought chances of it getting to 5'' were not great I would probably leave as advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 38 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Kidding or you don't know? Joking sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Pretty sure Ralph was here when Tombo was here? Tombo was a solid poster and did a mean play by play... is the other forum free or a pay site? May have to check it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forky thinks this continues to trend north Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: is the other forum free or a pay site? May have to check it out. I believe its free? I havent been over there in a while, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 34 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Most of the old members from this site are on phillywx.com forum Ralph. He used to post here. I post on 4 different forums - but this one is the most laid back - the others all have some drama based on mods.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, yankeex777 said: I believe its free? I havent been over there in a while, though. Free 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: I post on 4 different forums - but this one is the most laid back - the others all have some drama based on mods.... When you don't even need a moderator you know it's laid back. Lol. This is a great subforum. I think Ant agrees, since he's posting here alot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: is the other forum free or a pay site? May have to check it out. I'm banned from that forum I guess I'm a terrible weenie 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, wkd said: When you don't even need a moderator you know it's laid back. Lol. This is a great subforum. I think Ant agrees, since he's posting here alot. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: I'm banned from that forum I guess I'm a terrible weenie How? You're pretty mellow.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: How? You're pretty mellow.... Some moderators are too strict on there. I posted models with no content. Banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Some moderators are too strict on there. I posted models with no content. Banned. That's ridiculous, they speak for themselves lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: How? You're pretty mellow.... Damn I'm trying to say this without coming off like a dick to the guys over there or to ant as I don't know this from personal experience since I don't post there just have seen it happen there... they aren't very kind to people posting model content without analysis... while here we are just happy he's sharing the premium shit 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Some moderators are too strict on there. I posted models with no content. Banned. Some people go on a power trip being a "Mod"... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Damn I'm trying to say this without coming off like a dick to the guys over there or to ant as I don't know this from personal experience since I don't post there just have seen it happen there... they aren't very kind to people posting model content without analysis... while here we are just happy he's sharing the premium shit This lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Sref wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 SREFs plumes increased from 3.5" to 5.5" at KPHL since last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Mean Total QPF on the plumes is 0.56" at KPHL. Do your own ratios however you please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Thinking a 10pm - 1am start time....W to E 33F / DP 20F...not that low. Really don't want to deal w/virga... Been noticing how the radar has seemed to show precip farther east than modeled, and it appears they're getting flurries west of D.C., so I'm thinking maybe as early as 8 or 9 pm here, unless the air here is super dry. RH is 52%, so it's not that dry. Looking forward to tonight! Might have to have the traditional pre-snow kettle fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, KamuSnow said: Been noticing how the radar has seemed to show precip farther east than modeled, and it appears they're getting flurries west of D.C., so I'm thinking maybe as early as 8 or 9 pm here, unless the air here is super dry. RH is 52%, so it's not that dry. Looking forward to tonight! Might have to have the traditional pre-snow kettle fire. Yeah, I originally thought midnight then jacked it back to 10pm+...now maybe earlier?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Considering the mesos and Euro seem to have a stripe of 5-8 from BWI to ACY and points north I wouldn't be surprised to see warnings in some spots. I see sterling added some in northern MD and I wouldn't be shocked if Mt Holly does that for its part of MD and northern DE. Definitely feels like the heaviest is between the PA TPK and I-70 then down the Ac expressway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Philly just needs 4" for warning criteria, so I could see them under a warning. But yeah... Atmospheric memory/seasonal trend ftw! Warning criteria there is 5 inches for the 12 hour criteria (used to be 4 inches), and 7 inches for the 24 hour criteria. Edit: Saw the map posted earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I get a kick out of this forum hahaha. RPM has trended N. Gives the corridor marginal warning level snow. See if that holds. Have been busy w scholastic stuff this week so I haven't followed this one to closely. That said I think a good rule of thumb with the currebt pattern is..if a model shows a medium range hit, ignore. If a model shows a lr hit, pay attention. For a given sfc low, expect a South bias. If a model says big hit, prolly a small hit. Model says small hit, get big hit. A lot of mets suspect lack of airplane data is hurting models. This winter has been interesting in that the model biases have been glaring and obvious. Would be a good year to use if teaching a fcsting class and wanted to give model bias examples. Not subtle. Wrt watch advisory warning...it wouldn't make sense to issue a watch (imho). A watch is a timing issue. A storm is expected to occur, but not certain yet, couple days away. Same as other nws watch types. Bc they've issued an advisory step one would be ammending advisory to mention high end potential. If model and nowcast trends this pm suggest warning crtieria are more likely they would prolly then upgrade to WSW. If you took curr guidance verbatim it would qualify as a wsw in spots. Since models are not infallable, may see later tnght. Folks have already noted earlier precip onset vs short range models. Ratios will work in our favor. (I'm partly joking on the long range vs medium range remark but gosh does it feel that way!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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