Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wrong runs I just saw that lol my cache is all screwed up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here....nice tick N on the 12k NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Must be dry asf....juicy NAM manages a whopping c-2". Little refresh to the piles anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ICON came N: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 These ticks N at around 48-54 hrs out have been too predictable this year for whatever reason. Euro is alone on the island....again. If it doesnt tick N at 0z...by 12z tomorrow latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 You can see why the ICON came N if you compare the SE ridge run over run. Imo even tho the icon isn't the best guidance, as a global model it is likely seeing the SER flex more than the mesos. At least on the broader scale as opposed to micro, that change might carry weight if we see other globals signal the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS seeing some strengthening in the same region. Nothing massive but probably just enough that we can get in on the snows Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS didn't make the move this run but is colder and while it cuts precip off N shield, the snow right along the PA/MD border looks juicier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The same SEPA dry slot for all 3 waves as 12z ECM, like GFS cheated in the classrom 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Snow maps are meh. Given temps in the 20s and the surface maps qpf depiction, expected better than 1-3" but we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Sunday is looking too amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS doesnt give us any precip out of tomorrow's event so everything south of turnpike is mid-late week events. Modeling keeps trying to kill the precip from both waves as it gets into Philly metro area. Still think this thing gets even more juice and has a bullseye between I-70 (draw a line due east from Bmore) and Pa TPK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z GFS first wave stayed north, second two waves stayed south, 4th wave move north and rained lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Snow maps are meh. Given temps in the 20s and the surface maps qpf depiction, expected better than 1-3" but we take. Not only that but it's going to be super light (intensity) considering the duration and only picking up a couple inches (if?).... Already 17F @ 11:10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z GFS struck out like Ryan Howard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 CMC has the same dryslot And no Sunday wave 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gotta let all this play out like our other three successful events this season‼️‼️ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ECM went souther to non eventville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM went souther to non eventville Between going further south and that annoying dry slot this is destined to fail...we're running out of time for a N shift. 15F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Between going further south and that annoying dry slot this is destined to fail...we're running out of time for a N shift. 15F 6z suite all ticked N with wave 1 but light precip. Wave 2 light precip. Sunday mix to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 North shifts will happen today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z suite all ticked N with wave 1 but light precip. Wave 2 light precip. Sunday mix to rain. 6z Euro seems to have gone S. And the qpf is pretty sad throughout our area... 25F/Overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 6z Euro seems to have gone S. And the qpf is pretty sad throughout our area... 25F/Overcast Euro is almost all by itself right now. Even the eps don't agree. We've seen this many times recently at this same exact range. Chances are good it comes N at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12k NAM tick N again. Another 'slight' improvement. Still 36-48 hrs to adjust. Eta: both waves adjusted N wave 2 Friday misses tho just to our S but close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12k NAM tick N again. Another 'slight' improvement. Still 36-48 hrs to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like wave #1 falls mainly overnight, so that should help freshen up the snow pack. No point worrying about wave #2 until wave #1 clears the field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I still think this will be 3-6" region wide Wednesday night into thursday when all is said and done. Wave 2 may be another 1-3/2-4 type deal, not as confident that comes north enough. I'll be surprised if wave 1 is a complete fail here though, I think at the very least it will be a 1-3" refresher. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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