LVblizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Here we go again... At this point models all agree on a bunch of overrunning snow starting Wednesday night and lasting into at least Thursday morning. But from there it gets tricky. Some models want to bring the shortwave north, resulting in more freezing rain, while others want to keep it south, giving us yet another nice snowstorm. Regardless, it looks like we’ll have some more wintry precip later this week. Here’s last night’s Euro ensemble mean for this time period. Definitely something to keep a close eye on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12z cmc has 3 separate waves that bring snow in the region, unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Lol and that isn’t even the main batch that’s the appetizer event that’s been showing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12GFS absolute weenie run...wow 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12GFS absolute weenie run...wow I have a headache after reviewing digital GFS snow today, there should be a side effect warning on the screen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: I have a headache after reviewing digital GFS snow today, there should be a side effect warning on the screen CmC honking too. Going out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Euro is a hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Today has been a top 3 weenie day of my life. There is literally 3 legit threats of snow, it’s snowing out, and it has only been a week since a MECS. Besides the waa and first coastal that second coastal on the gfs and euro day 7 is very intriguing. Just a nutty pattern. It could all fall apart but I don’t think it will. This block is legit. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Eps agrees Snowy week ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 La niña who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: La nina who? Just like 2010-2011 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Can we please keep posting the model maps as I’m not advanced enough to do this on my own. Can someone start by posting that gfs run. Thank you so much. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Can we please keep posting the model maps as I’m not advanced enough to do this on my own. Can someone start by posting that gfs run. Thank you so much.CMC for Thursday GFS for Thursday Both are showing area wide 6+”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Can we please keep posting the model maps as I’m not advanced enough to do this on my own. Can someone start by posting that gfs run. Thank you so much.CMC for the 12thGFS for the 12thBoth are sour now but with the way all models have trended NW it’s early on this one . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The new king in town has those two storms back to back with no break. All hail the ICON!!! Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM is way north at 6z and an extreme outlier on that side. Euro 0z appears farther South. 6z GFS just gave most of the area 12"+ of white cold smoke fluff with temps during the event in the mid 20s. 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: I think gfs is a bit overdone. This screams classic light/mod pixie dust event 3-6” to me. Areas far west of the city will do a lot better since the flow is west to east the mountains may do it’s dirty work to precip shield like old school clippers. Question is do you get some light coastal enhancement like GFS shows and then does the wave Friday bring enough precip N. My guess right now is it’ll just be one event with the second mainly south and then another event Sunday, but this will change in a few hours lol. 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont disagree. But the ICON at 6z ticked N with the precip shield. Ratios will be high. Duration looks extended. But probably a flush hit from the first wave, Southern areas with the second wave Friday AM. But we'll see. BTW, NAM likely the N extreme outlier BUT we also said that last week and we know what happened there. Also, we have the Feb/Nina SE Ridge effect fighting back this time. It hasn't been prevalent it has been a flat ridge but it has been there thus what is setting up our gradient. Could be just enough influence to keep this drifting South like a normal year. Im not buying folks saying suppression is an issue here. I think it is a fine balance between PV CAA and a weak flat SER. If we didn't have the PV pressing that SER would be flexing. And if we didn't have the SER thisnis cold and dry arctic blast. Overunning will be thrown farther N. I will put $ on that. 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wanted to add, the mean flow isn't due W to E as you mentioned. Look at 250mb and even 500mb-700mb. There is a connection coming out of the far W GOM and at the surface moisture is funneling around the flattish SER from that area and overunning the CAA dome. These events tend to juice up as they approach with overunning not being modeled well in the N areas. I do tend to to agree with you wrt the GFS probably being overdone right now. But I cant be certain. 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: I agree there is some enhancement west of us but the flow is still fairly zonal once it gets to our region right? There is a nice jet enhancement north of us which will keep this from going too far N unless that changes, I guess my point is we just need more latitude with the precip shield because wherever it sets up up west of the apps it’ll like just shoot straight east. Friday slightly different story 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You bring up a good point there. You're pretty good at picking out where to chase and I often sit here and nod my head to myself that you did it again. But I saw you suggest something about VA in another thread and I did a quick smh. Im concerned more for ice down that way. But we know things will bounce around the next 3 days. 54 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Haha trust me when I choose a place to chase I get screwed. Finally the last event I listened to a pro and it worked out. What did you get in warminster yesterday? My dad lives near Davisville/street rd he said like 7? But he was just eyeballing. I drove up there early in the day during the heavy band 49 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Interesting, 6z euro is farther south with first batch, but there is more interaction with NS headed towards the second wave. This run would have been a big hit for Friday I believe 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 7" on the nose 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If we don't get one we get the next, that's my early take here. Should be some accum snow at some point Wednesday late-Friday. Just not sure how much. 30 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Agreed. Hopefully both. Heh. This run looks like it def would have had a lot more focus for friday. Long way to go 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12z Rgem and nam are both 4-6" of powder region wide with wave 1 Wednesday night. We take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ummmmm no mention of the 12z Euro? Everyone okay? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Ummmmm no mention of the 12z Euro? Everyone okay? East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Still think this will end up as a 3-6" storm for the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 With the trend this winter of everything to be further north and more precip I feel like we're in a good spot for the two waves Wednesday night-Friday. Would much rather be slightly north of the bullseye than in it this far out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10° Buckingham PA low temp. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I mentioned this in AM but my bet is one of the waves trends weaker and the other stronger. Like I’ve been saying our best bet imo is Friday. Has a better jet structure and more H7 juice. 18z gfs is best case scenario right now. I hope euro shows something similar this evening. This is a really good setup for mid Atlantic, could be some sneaky high totals in S de and S NJ too with some weak coastal enhancement. Well see. Obviously most favorable spot is west of city. Give me 5” of powder and I’m happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18z GEFS snow mean is way N and doesn't agree with the op much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GEFS snow mean is way N and doesn't agree with the op much at all. Yeah looking at individuals they’re all over the place. It’s a balancing act between favoring thurs vs fri and some even bring Friday N causing mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah looking at individuals they’re all over the place. It’s a balancing act between favoring thurs vs fri and some even bring Friday N causing mixing issues. Eps is also all over. Alot of members north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 We all know this is coming north. EPS made move already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Have a suspicion op models start the N tick tonight. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice tick N on the 12k NAM. Wrong runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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