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Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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mikem81

mikem81

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible.

Its not Snow....Better track offshre but something is forcing a lot of warming aloft...

 

850th.us_ma.png

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BxEngine
BxEngine

Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. 

wdrag
wdrag

fwiw... GFSv16 is back running (12z cycle). Unsure how it long it will continue. LI not much snow but some ice and looks like a fair amount of snow/ice I84 corridor or maybe north of that? Back tomorr

wdrag
wdrag

859AM/14:  The GGEM/RGEM are going to win this Monday battle of no precip vs freezing precip occurring. The 06z EC and lesser so GFS, are capitulating to a two part event beginning Monday morning.  Th

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible.

I would still lean towards a snow or snow and sleet mix. In order to get significant freezing rain conditions have to be perfect. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
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1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Its not Snow....Better track offshre but something is forcing a lot of warming aloft...

 

850th.us_ma.png

Yeah, the same mechanism that's driving the precipitation. It's called warm air advection and without it we wouldn't have a storm. The strong shortwave in the Tennessee Valley is driving warm moist air up over the cold, dry air to the North creating lift. Because the trough is so flat you end up with a relative weak wave that quickly scoots East on the strong LLJ. 

The trough is somewhat amplified in the plains but then gets flattened out. You would want this to dig much further South before then trying to come North which would have forced a redeveloping surface low. 

All in all if this ends up verifying it's a waste of solid cold air.

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mikem81

mikem81

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah, the same mechanism that's driving the precipitation. It's called warm air advection and without it we wouldn't have a storm. The strong shortwave in the Tennessee Valley is driving warm moist air up over the cold, dry air to the North creating lift. Because the trough is so flat you end up with a relative weak wave that quickly scoots East on the strong LLJ. 

The trough is somewhat amplified in the plains but then gets flattened out. You would want this to dig much further South before then trying to come North which would have forced a redeveloping surface low. 

All in all if this ends up verifying it's a waste of solid cold air.

Agreed. The models have a new piece of energy Monday which prevents the trough from digging and keeps the artic boundary north as well  and the Tuesday storm starts out too far north....

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Agreed. The models have a new piece of energy Monday which prevents the trough from digging and keeps the artic boundary north as well  and the Tuesday storm starts out too far north....

The next system for Thursday time frame has potential but the high is retreating. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Those we could deal with better than freezing rain, though I could care less about sleet. I will say that those events, at least the Feb one, were big snow events elsewhere, like out in PA, not sure what the deal is with this. Sleet, although less than ZR, is just a pain. But the weather doesn't care what I think....darn it...

If it was like Feb 1922 then it would be exciting (17 inches of snow over three days with sleet and freezing rain mixed in, 4.5 inches of LE)

Based on what happened in Texas, either way it's better to be safe, I'm not going anywhere during this storm.

There has been a pattern with storms this year, they trend further north and closer to the coast than modeled (even if they get suppressed in the mid range.)

 

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The warm air aloft is caused by the strengthening SE ridge and an attempt to have a primary low feature that drives warm mid level air in. This is all cutting into a strong surface high in Canada that is keeping cold low level air in place. Hopefully the ice storm depictions don’t happen. No one wants a 0.5” or more freezing rain event that would cause tens of thousands of power outages. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The warm air aloft is caused by the strengthening SE ridge and an attempt to have a primary low feature that drives warm mid level air in. This is all cutting into a strong surface high in Canada that is keeping cold low level air in place. Hopefully the ice storm depictions don’t happen. No one wants a 0.5” or more freezing rain event that would cause tens of thousands of power outages. 

Ordinarily I would be scared of power outages, but we didn't get them in Jan 1994....you were around for that historic event (I think), what was the reason we didn't have them then and why would they be more likely now?

I'm much more scared of driving accidents.

 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The warm air aloft is caused by the strengthening SE ridge and an attempt to have a primary low feature that drives warm mid level air in. This is all cutting into a strong surface high in Canada that is keeping cold low level air in place. Hopefully the ice storm depictions don’t happen. No one wants a 0.5” or more freezing rain event that would cause tens of thousands of power outages. 

Have to hope the CMC and Euro is right because the gefs Ukie and GFS are nasty.

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weatherbear5

weatherbear5

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types.

The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area.

Freezing rain is more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. I would still favor mostly plain rain for the city but the surface temps on the GFS sure give me pause for concern.

The GFS is usually too warm at the surface. 

The scary thing about this setup is that models are notoriously bad at estimating WAA above the surface and CAD at the surface

Methinks this has the makings of the biggest ice storm  a lot of areas have seen in a while, particularly at the coast

Heres hoping it trends colder aloft for more sleet or snow than FZRA

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why? I take it you never see them in England? ;)

 

Ice is beautiful. It's a spectacular nature scene when everything is coated with sparkling ice, so some weather enthusiasts are going to root for it even though it causes problems. But this storm could easily be more of a sleet/snow situation like 12z UKMET is showing, rather than freezing rain. Or plain rain like GGEM is showing. A lot of possible solutions and obviously way too early to know.

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romba

romba

Posted
Posted

No wind if it's icy please, really don't want to lose power for an extended time. 

 

I suggested a Nat Gas generator to the wife for in the future, she said said kitchen gets remodeled first. I lose lol

 

If we lose power for a day or more though I think her tune will quickly change, lack of power hits on so many basic civilized levels.

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, romba said:

No wind if it's icy please, really don't want to lose power for an extended time. 

 

I suggested a Nat Gas generator to the wife for in the future, she said said kitchen gets remodeled first. I lose lol

 

If we lose power for a day or more though I think her tune will quickly change, lack of power hits on so many basic civilized levels.

Best of luck r, in some cross gender discussions logic is your worst enemy. As always ....

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Ordinarily I would be scared of power outages, but we didn't get them in Jan 1994....you were around for that historic event (I think), what was the reason we didn't have them then and why would they be more likely now?

I'm much more scared of driving accidents.

 

I don’t really remember 93-94, I was 7 years old then. I remember bits and pieces. The first real memory I have was the 95-96 winter specifically Jan 96 which really got me into weather. 

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