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Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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BxEngine
BxEngine

Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. 

wdrag
wdrag

fwiw... GFSv16 is back running (12z cycle). Unsure how it long it will continue. LI not much snow but some ice and looks like a fair amount of snow/ice I84 corridor or maybe north of that? Back tomorr

wdrag
wdrag

859AM/14:  The GGEM/RGEM are going to win this Monday battle of no precip vs freezing precip occurring. The 06z EC and lesser so GFS, are capitulating to a two part event beginning Monday morning.  Th

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

clown range but then a rainstorm to wash it all away-LOL

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

This storm could signal a pattern change however there are signals that blocking will return late Feb. 

However I'm pretty sure this will be a cutter.

Us having snow cover for more than 2 weeks is very rare so I expect the blocking to break down and a lot of melting to start by the 18-19th storm and beyond. 

Hopefully the melt doesn't happen all at once. If the 16th storm delivers then that'll aggregate the flooding potential. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, sferic said:

@snywx @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash

 

Exciting times coming up, how much new snow do you think we'll pick up by next Friday?

Saturday's Storm

Tuesday's Storm

Thursday's Storm

You guys should do better up there but for the city I think the real storm is Tuesday's storm. I don't like either of the other storms for the city in terms of snow potential.  

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This storm could signal a pattern change however there are signals that blocking will return late Feb. 

However I'm pretty sure this will be a cutter.

Us having snow cover for more than 2 weeks is very rare so I expect the blocking to break down and a lot of melting to start by the 18-19th storm and beyond. 

Hopefully the melt doesn't happen all at once. If the 16th storm delivers then that'll aggregate the flooding potential. 

Too far out to know but Euro is not as torched for next Thu-Fri as the gfs is. Even with a low going through upstate NY its snow/ice to light rain. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This storm could signal a pattern change however there are signals that blocking will return late Feb. 

However I'm pretty sure this will be a cutter.

at some point the pattern will break and we'll get that.  Fun times for another week though.  Maybe more....

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

@wdrag.  I need to split to the topics bc it is a bit confusing.    We will keep this thread for the 16th threat.   I will create a new one for the Valentine's day threat.    Any of threat after that, do what you do.  You can start an Feb 18th thread if you want.  Thanks for everything. 

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