Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very cold temps on the gfs

Teens 

you are misrepresenting the facts look at the 850 temps too those 2M temps in the teens are suspect IMO

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you are misrepresenting the facts look at the 850 temps too

I know

I'm talking about surface temps

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know

I'm talking about surface temps

I know that and do you actually believe it ? this is more realistic IMO

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I know that and do you actually believe it ?

Remember feb 2007 ? March 2007?

It is certainly possible  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Remember feb 2007 ? March 2007?

It is certainly possible  

[HVSnowLover]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Canadian more impressive then GFS for Sunday

Yea im going with cmc/euro more than gfs for Sunday

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I know that and do you actually believe it ? this is more realistic IMO

The airmass is very cold so yes I could buy surface temps in the teens or low 20s. It also depends on the track.  

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember feb 2007 ? March 2007?

It is certainly possible  

are you talking about the 12 hour sleet storm we had in nyc?

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

are you talking about the 12 hour sleet storm we had in nyc?

Yes

Brutal

[mikem81]

The early week storm next week is complex given the PV positioning and SE ridge and impacts on track for 850 and 2m temps. Look at ensembles instead of OP runs for now...

[mikem81]

 

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro is an ice event for Sundays

[MJO812]

Euro is coming in flatter for next week

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is coming in flatter for next week

It separates the waves.  First one Monday is flat; then a big miller B tuesday-Wed .. Icy

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It separates the waves.  First one Monday is flat; then a big miller B tuesday-Wed .. Icy

Yep very icy 

Trended colder again.  Have to get the 850s to cooperate. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep very icy 

Trended colder again.  Have to get the 850s to cooperate. 

LOL NYC starting at 17 degrees on the Euro and max is mid 20s but yes upper levels are iffy so ice.

[HVSnowLover]

I think Euro is not done trending south for Tuesday its quite unusual for surface to be that cold in this area and 850s to be warm, also other models are further SE 

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro is an ice event for Sundays

I think Sunday is mostly sleet for the metro area

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

LOL NYC starting at 17 degrees on the Euro and max is mid 20s but yes upper levels are iffy so ice.

Temps are similiar to the gfs

[weatherbear5]

That high is in a perfect spot to lock in cold air at the surface. That’s the look of an ice storm right there, unless we can get the mid levels to cool

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think Sunday is mostly sleet for the metro area

It looks as if UKMET is the only model giving us a couple inches of snow sunday. Hopefully it's right, but obviously ice looks more likely right now since most other models are showing that.

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep very icy 

Trended colder again.  Have to get the 850s to cooperate. 

Looks as if Euro does give us several inches of snow before changing to ice tuesday. Obviously a long way to go with this one.

[Juliancolton]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This visual reminds me a lot of the 'finger rafting' sea ice phenomenon with the interleaved stripes of cooler and warmer air. I wonder if the physical mechanisms are anything alike.

[WarrenCtyWx]

I can't recall a prolonged ice storm here in NW NJ (thankfully). We've had a great many sleet storms though.

[Brian5671]

I would thing an ice storm would come more from an overrunning event vs a storm coming up the coast....

[wdrag]

I've no confident change to the topic as updated at 830AM and reassess tomorrow morning.  The 14th event is light,  15th?, the 16th might not be as heavy as some of the models which may leave it colder and more snow?  

18th-19th...  think heaviest qpf since our Feb 1 event. It looks pretty cold at the surface with generally primary low pressures, so far, along our coasts for this entire period per 12z/11 NAEFS.  Probably not much snow along I80-Li, especially 18th-19th (replaced by sleet, freezing rain and on LI and coastal NJ.. rain). 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I would thing an ice storm would come more from an overrunning event vs a storm coming up the coast....

Agreed this entire setup seems funky to me. 

Great banana high pressure and AO blocks the storm from running over us, yet the h5 look we are definitely east of the trough. 

 

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I would thing an ice storm would come more from an overrunning event vs a storm coming up the coast....

May come in two pieces 18 and 19... instead of one stronger system. If that happens, going to be colder surface, at least inland. Precip rates may be too heavy for heavier FRAM glaze but I have to think at pretty good chance of a quarter inch of glaze coming this 5 day period, interior east-northeast slope high terrain. Worthy of monitoring. I'm not convinced by current modeling that it cant snow the first 6-12 hours on the 18th along I84. If it further warms aloft, then that snow won't happen. 

[mikem81]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed this entire setup seems funky to me. 

Great banana high pressure and AO blocks the storm from running over us, yet the h5 look we are definitely east of the trough. 

 

Its a miller B so way different than a miller A. We have one LP going up into the Lakes region which causes upper levels to warm..

[mikem81]

Need the primary low to die off a bit sooner...