Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[gpsnavigator]

Sparta, NJ @ exactly 800 feet elevation:

Temp 28.2, RH 96% with lots of icy patches.  Some spots are just wet, presumably where they've salted, but if you hit a spot where they haven't - watch out!

Let's see how fast the warm air wins out.  

[gravitylover]

6 hours straight freezing mist and drizzle now. The roads suck everywhere other than on Rt 6. I know because I just had to drive to the local urgent care because my wife went down outside the back door and wrecked her ankle.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, gravitylover said:

6 hours straight freezing mist and drizzle now. The roads suck everywhere other than on Rt 6. I know because I just had to drive to the local urgent care because my wife went down outside the back door and wrecked her ankle.

Yikes.

Looks like nothing appreciable has happened here yet in Sullivan, real accretion seeming more probable to happen with the main slug.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

6 hours straight freezing mist and drizzle now. The roads suck everywhere other than on Rt 6. I know because I just had to drive to the local urgent care because my wife went down outside the back door and wrecked her ankle.

Your area always seems to get a lot of ice, i guess somewhat elevated in Putnam county? 

[gravitylover]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Your area always seems to get a lot of ice, i guess somewhat elevated in Putnam county? 

Yeah I'm on the ESE slope of one of the tallest hills in town. We get Taconic High Country weather but are far enough south and east to be strongly maritime influenced so it tends to be cold and wet. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Almost every model is now showing no ZR for the 95 corridor and even nearby there and less to the NW, too.  I'm guessing all the advisories might be cancelled and most of the ice storm warnings converted to advisories for up to 0.1" of ZR, except maybe for the Poconos/Sussex, where they might still get up to 1/4".  And I would think everything will be ok just about everywhere by the morning rush hour.  

Same thing every time.   Very hard to get a true ice storm for most parts of this subforum.   Imagine last Sunday predicting this storm would be mostly heavy rain with embedded thunder and temps 45-55?

[NJwx85]

 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-161200-
 /O.CON.KPHI.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1500Z/
 Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-
 Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
 Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
 701 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021
 
 ...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
 
 * WHAT...Significant icing. Additional ice accumulations of two 
   tenths to four tenths of an inch.
 
 * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and 
   northeast Pennsylvania.
 
 * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.
 
 * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
   ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous 
   conditions could impact the morning commute.
 
 * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet and freezing rain will move into the
   area through the first half of this evening before changing to 
   mainly freezing rain by the overnight. Precipitation may 
   eventually change to a period of all rain in places by Tuesday 
   morning before winding down.
 
 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
 Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
 flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
 emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. 
 
 The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
 be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 

[psv88]

32/31 nw Suffolk. Freezing mist 

[gpsnavigator]

Doesn't it look like the bulk of the precip is awfully far west?  Meaning this 4 tenths of an inch of ice, or even 2 is even more unlikely.

[gmendevils8204]

1 minute ago, gpsnavigator said:

Doesn't it look like the bulk of the precip is awfully far west?  Meaning this 4 tenths of an inch of ice, or even 2 is even more unlikely.

Hardly anything coming down by me.  At best, a very fine misty rain.  Just took a walk and the ground is merely wet right now.

[gpsnavigator]

3 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Hardly anything coming down by me.  At best, a very fine misty rain.  Just took a walk and the ground is merely wet right now.

That's what I've got too, which is freezing up here, and I'm down to 27.7

Oddly enough, a lot of Sussex County, NJ, and parts of Morris County are having power issues tonight that don't seem to be related to this event.  

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Same thing every time.   Very hard to get a true ice storm for most parts of this subforum.   Imagine last Sunday predicting this storm would be mostly heavy rain with embedded thunder and temps 45-55?

Yep that's why I don't know why people freak about ice (SE of I287). It almost never happens. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

27 with light ZR. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.49" of rain so far today.

Current temp 37

[Rjay]

48 in Holbrook

[bluewave]

Upper 40s and rain here in SW Suffolk with dense fog. Getting to see the first grassy patches of bare ground in a while. So it looks like the fog is quickly eroding the snowpack.

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yep that's why I don't know why people freak about ice (SE of I287). It almost never happens. 

Correct.

Someone said this will be a historic ice storm last week.

I responded that type of event for our area is almost impossible to predict 5 days out.

[SleetStormNJ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Upper 40s and rain here in SW Suffolk with dense fog. Getting to see the first grassy patches of bare ground in a while. So it looks like the fog is quickly eroding the snowpack.

Much cooler here west of Hudson thus far so snowpack held remarkably well despite rain and absorbing/runoff of water. We'll see how much it takes a hit temps warm here but i think the expected warm surge close to 50s on modeling will bust a bit in in North/Central Jersey.

Either way snowpack and piles was getting a bit dirty and disgusting amounts of salt were on the roads/lots the past week.  Time for refresher Thursday perhaps/hopefully.

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Upper 40s and rain here in SW Suffolk with dense fog. Getting to see the first grassy latches of bare ground in a while. So it looks like the fog is quickly eroding the snowpack.

Upper 40s is your snowpack killer

[bluewave]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Upper 40s is your snowpack killer

But the bigger snow piles are still doing OK.

[the_other_guy]

For the record I am in Bethel Maine at Sunday River.

 

At 7 AM it is sleeting.

 

We never even had a shot with this one in New York

[Northof78]

Did not lose much snow at all last night, holding in mid 30s, even if we, for a time pop into 40s later today, without rain, should be some melting, but nothing that bad,  should be there strong for Thursday...

[lee59]

Temperature 49 degrees with a SE wind gusting to almost 30mph. Had .9 inch of rain so far. Surprising how much snow is still left, I am thinking it will take a good hit by the end of the day.

[gravitylover]

Yeah it doesn't appear to have hurt the snowpack too badly and it will surely lock up tight tonight with temps in the teens. My worry is all of the standing water out there right now that has no place to go because of all the snow and ice blocking storm drains and watercourses. Things could get interesting.

[MJO812]

46 here in south Brooklyn

This storm  is more amped than what the models showed. Places near the lakes are getting sleet right now.

insane

[NJwx85]

 

[gpsnavigator]

I'm at 33, down from 36 a couple of hours ago.  No glaze that I can see and a light rain is still falling after heavier stuff earlier.

[Brian5671]

40 here.  On and off heavy rain as the back edge approaches....still have solid snowcover

[Rjay]

Made it to 50 degrees. 

[jm1220]

Snowpack is holding up decently well here but still taking a big hit with temps near 50 and rain. Hopefully we can salvage a fair amount before the event on Thu.