Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[gravitylover]

31 and freezing mist here. It's sketchy out there boyz 

[eduggs]

Definitely seems a little warmer than forecasted. It will probably cool off a few degrees or two this afternoon/evening. Anybody already below freezing right now will probably see some decent icing. 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Definitely seems a little warmer than forecasted. It will probably cool off a few degrees or two this afternoon/evening. Anybody already below freezing right now will probably see some decent icing. 

Been hanging right between 29-30 here in Narrowsburg which is definitely a bit warmer than guidance. As we probably don’t go below 27-28 tonight I’ll probably cap our icing potential right around .3”.

[bluewave]

The 12z Euro warmed up for tomorrow. Now has us getting into the 50s. So the early morning heavy thunderstorms could lead to some flooding issues with the big snow piles along the side of the roads.

 

 

[White Gorilla]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro warmed up for tomorrow. Now has us getting into the 50s. So the early morning heavy thunderstorms could lead to some flooding issues with the big snow piles along the side of the roads.

 

 

I am glad to see temps going above freezing even up here 

[gpsnavigator]

TWC still very bullish on this ice storm in northern jersey and surrounding areas.  Yet their future cast shows us 40+ degrees by morning.

Maybe the morning commute is OK?

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, gpsnavigator said:

TWC still very bullish on this ice storm in northern jersey and surrounding areas.  Yet their future cast shows us 40+ degrees by morning.

Maybe the morning commute is OK?

Most everyone will get above freezing by 6-7 AM save the elevations. Most of the ice will be melted off by afternoon.

 

...and then any water will re-freeze pretty quick tomorrow night. 

[NJwx85]

You guys do realize that enough ice could fall before temperatures warm to cause major power issues right?

It won't matter if we hit 50 degrees tomorrow morning if the power lines are already down.

[NJwx85]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

Most everyone will get above freezing by 6-7 AM save the elevations. Most of the ice will be melted off by afternoon.

And hundreds of branches and lines could be down by then.

[White Gorilla]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys do realize that enough ice could fall before temperatures warm to cause major power issues right?

It won't matter if we hit 50 degrees tomorrow morning if the power lines are already down.

This is true, but it will depend on when temps rise above 32 and when the heaviest starts.  If shorter duration, ice impacts will be less.  But we have to be prepared for the worst case regardless. 

[NJwx85]

Step 1, freezing rain falls, freezing on contact.

Step 2, most main roads are treated so issues are minimal, but bridges and ramps could be dicey. Some secondary roads could be hazardous. It only takes a light glaze to cause dangerous travel. 

Step 3, the temperature starts to rise, but even 0.1 to 0.2" ice accretion on branches and power lines is enough to bring them down.

Step 4, eventually the temperature rises above freezing, but how much damage is already done by then?

[White Gorilla]

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys do realize that enough ice could fall before temperatures warm to cause major power issues right?

It won't matter if we hit 50 degrees tomorrow morning if the power lines are already down.

At least restoration efforts will be easier with milder temps and melting ice 

[RU848789]

Almost every model is now showing no ZR for the 95 corridor and even nearby there and less to the NW, too.  I'm guessing all the advisories might be cancelled and most of the ice storm warnings converted to advisories for up to 0.1" of ZR, except maybe for the Poconos/Sussex, where they might still get up to 1/4".  And I would think everything will be ok just about everywhere by the morning rush hour.  

[gravitylover]

30/28 and it's been freezing mist for a few hours now. There was a solid period of freezing drizzle this morning that was a little messy but now it's really sketchy on anything that wasn't doused in salt. I'm nowhere near as entertained by ice as I used to be.

[wishcast_hater]

28 degrees with a light mist. Nothing freezing so not sure what’s going on. No way we get anything frozen tonight. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Almost every model is now showing no ZR for the 95 corridor and even nearby there and less to the NW, too.  I'm guessing all the advisories might be cancelled and most of the ice storm warnings converted to advisories for up to 0.1" of ZR, except maybe for the Poconos/Sussex, where they might still get up to 1/4".  And I would think everything will be ok just about everywhere by the morning rush hour.  

You can see a CAD signature here with the V shaped isobars sagging down into VA. The airmass is certainly running a few degrees warmer than expected but they still have the warnings/advisories up for a reason. 

 

[crossbowftw3]

8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Almost every model is now showing no ZR for the 95 corridor and even nearby there and less to the NW, too.  I'm guessing all the advisories might be cancelled and most of the ice storm warnings converted to advisories for up to 0.1" of ZR, except maybe for the Poconos/Sussex, where they might still get up to 1/4".  And I would think everything will be ok just about everywhere by the morning rush hour.  

Upton still has the ISW in place but icing potential now down to up to 1/4”: 

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Ice Storm Warning, significant icing expected.
  Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch. For the Winter
  Weather Advisory ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York,
  Orange County.

* WHEN...For the Ice Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 10
  AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM
  EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I am glad to see temps going above freezing even up here 

They need to improve the globals so they stop underestimating the SE Ridge.

New Euro run

 

Old run

 

 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They need to improve the globals so they stop underestimating the SE Ridge.

New Euro run

 

Old run

 

 

It's not the Southeast ridge, look at the difference in strength and position of the high.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's not the Southeast ridge, look at the difference in strength and position of the high.

Sure it is. Notice the SE Ridge or WAR extending more strongly into the Canadian Maritimes. Very difficult to lock in the surface CAD with a pattern like that. The 50/50 low got pushed further NE near Greenland.

New run

Old run

 

 

[NJwx85]

I'm throwing in the towel, the 18z 3k NAM is even warmer. 

The only thing I will cautiously say is that the soundings only show the LHV reaching the mid 30's for highs, and it doesn't really get above 34 until after the precip shuts off. It wouldn't take much of an error for some areas to stay below freezing longer. 

Should have known that the severe weather down South was going to prompt a more amped up solution.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm throwing in the towel, the 18z 3k NAM is even warmer. 

The only thing I will cautiously say is that the soundings only show the LHV reaching the mid 30's for highs, and it doesn't really get above 34 until after the precip shuts off. It wouldn't take much of an error for some areas to stay below freezing longer. 

Should have known that the severe weather down South was going to prompt a more amped up solution.

LHV will reach well into the 40s tomorrow

[crossbowftw3]

should also be said that most of this comes down in about 5-6 hours and in some heavier precip...accounting for runoff .15-.3 is probably the realistic range for many with elevated areas that stay the coldest getting up to .5”.

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

LHV will reach well into the 40s tomorrow

Not until all of the precip is long over.

[PoTown]

Last three updates on the Albany NWS Winter Page has reflected the following decline for projected ice accumulation in Poughkeepsie... / .24, .17, and now .12

[White Gorilla]

25 minutes ago, PoTown said:

Last three updates on the Albany NWS Winter Page has reflected the following decline for projected ice accumulation in Poughkeepsie... / .24, .17, and now .12

Great news 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Great news 

Looking at current temps I actually think this will be a bit colder than modeled during the storm and the warm air will really come in after the storm is over. 

[gravitylover]

The ice is currently being downplayed. I've had freezing precip for nearly 5 hours straight now and the whole place is frozen solid. It's easily .1" thick, probably a bit more. 

[RU848789]

33F with very light rain and the reported RH is 92% which gives a wet bulb temp of 31.5F, so freezing rain is not out of the question yet.  I did just check and no signs of anything freezing yet.  

[HVSnowLover]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

33F with very light rain and the reported RH is 92% which gives a wet bulb temp of 31.5F, so freezing rain is not out of the question yet.  I did just check and no signs of anything freezing yet.  

It's 32 here but everything is wet, even at 32 rain is just basically rain.