Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

Don’t mind sleet. I just don’t want rain to ruin my beautiful snow pack. 

I think we will likely see some plain rain Tuesday morning but most of QPF will fall as sleet and ZR. Now the further north and west you are the better your chances. I'm 20-25 miles north of you so that could make a big difference I guess. Whatever we lose we will have to make it up on Thursday. 

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Here in Liberty NY it kooks like ice  and plenty of it ( half inch likely) . Minimal snow <2 inches with this first event. Later in the week hopefully mainly snow but pure rain up here doubtful

Will look at 00z suite to see if things waffle north  or south the nowcasting  and HRRR tomorrow

 

@snywx( Middletown a skating rink )   @Ericjcrash ( you look to be getting the most snow) and @crossbowftw3 you seem to be in the icing camp too

 

Hopefully end of week storm delivers the good and builds on our base which should stay intact with the freezing and below temps

I doubt we all see .5", but .25-.4is a good call

[HVSnowLover]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro and NAM have a heavy elevated convection signal near the coast early Tuesday. So there could  be quite a bit of ponding of water on the area roadways. Especially with the snowmelt and temperatures into the 40s. Should be an impressive temperature gradient between Toms River  and Sussex County, NJ.

 

 

 

In practice I find with these storms the temp usually sits in the mid 30s and then spikes to low 40s for like one hour. Hopefully doesn't totally destroy the entire snowpack although it will definitely take a big hit

[Jeff Grann]

11 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

If the temps were in the lower to mid 20’s  and held steady it would make a great factor in ice accumulation. Point and click forecast for me is a high of 28 tomorrow and temps rising slightly Monday night into Tuesday.

North of Storm King Mtn will lock in the LL cold considerably longer that down by the RT 17 Harriman-Middletown corridor in this situation. The big ice will be in NW Orange County and then from Cornwall North to Marlboro. We drop dews tonight with the light northerly drain down the river

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Euro and NAM have a heavy elevated convection signal near the coast early Tuesday. So there could  be quite a bit of ponding of water on the area roadways. Especially with the snowmelt and temperatures into the 40s. Should be an impressive temperature gradient between Toms River  and Sussex County, NJ.

 

 

 

wow even the Poconos are in the mid 40s

think we finally hit 50 here, Chris?

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

North of Storm King Mtn will lock in the LL cold considerably longer that down by the RT 17 Harriman-Middletown corridor in this situation. The big ice will be in NW Orange County and then from Cornwall North to Marlboro. We drop dews tonight with the light northerly drain down the river

Will see if the CAD is hard to displace up this way.

[sussexcountyobs]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow even the Poconos are in the mid 40s

think we finally hit 50 here, Chris?

 

With deep snow pack, I would be skeptical if temps get that high at the surface. It's quite possible,  but I doubt it. If it does? It will be very brief. 

[Blizzardo]

13 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

With deep snow pack, I would be skeptical if temps get that high at the surface. It's quite possible,  but I doubt it. If it does? It will be very brief. 

Ive seen temps get pretty warm with a good snowpack and rain. Creates a very foggy airmass.

[NJwx85]

While the models have trended warmer for Tuesday morning, low level cold air is almost always undermodeled.

[Jeff Grann]

45 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Will see if the CAD is hard to displace up this way.

It will be because it's a weak storm and no big pressure gradient to flush it out. We will keep the light cold drain until most of the storm is done

[NJwx85]

I can see the pessimism near the city and Central Jersey but North of Rt 80 is a different world and North of 287 is going to be mostly if not all ice. The HRRR also has spotty activity all day tomorrow.

[ForestHillWx]

Ice storm warning here.
 

While I am a weather enthusiast, working from home and relying on power/internet makes me pray the warm air wins out. 

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Ice storm warning here.
 

While I am a weather enthusiast, working from home and relying on power/internet makes me pray the warm air wins out. 

Very true. Only a fool would route for an ice storm. Most likely someone who's never actually been through a real one.

[Brian5671]

New NAM is a flooding rainstorm for most here....

[Brian5671]

Storm track over Philly with a stale airmass won't lead to much ice for anyone if the NAM is right....heavy rains even if below freezing would not accrete that well.  

[sferic]

I wonder with rest of 00z suite if low perhaps ticks east

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New NAM is a flooding rainstorm for most here....

Some significant ponding for sure. 

Temps will struggle to warm though so prob not your typical warm (50-60F) cutter. 

[White Gorilla]

Will always root for rain if the alternative is ZR with loss of power 

[wdrag]

Good morning American Weather membership interested in ice.  I am no longer posting on this thread, only the OBS thread which is now active with icing. Will not be posting much if at all 930A-4P as in travel. 

[Snowshack]

Some sleet forecast to mix in all the way up to the southern adirondacks now.  Amazing how far this has trended.  Still should be 6-12” in that area. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Some sleet forecast to mix in all the way up to the southern adirondacks now.  Amazing how far this has trended.  Still should be 6-12” in that area. 

Yea it's basically an all ice event now (little to no snow) even near Albany. I am pretty confident now this is a mainly plain rain event for NYC and all the immediate suburbs.  I think it's a very tricky forecast for our further Northern and Western suburbs (mostly 33 degree rain vs mostly ice) 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brett said:

Just looked at piviotal it seems the NAM starts as a brief mix with no snow then goes to plain rain rather quickly and torrential rain at that

Right but we know models can underestimate low level cold air so while it may go quickly to rain I also wouldn't rule out a prolonged period of icing  in a place iike Mahwah.   

[snywx]

13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Right but we know models can underestimate low level cold air so while it may go quickly to rain I also wouldn't rule out a prolonged period of icing  in a place iike Mahwah.   

Even at 30-32f it’s a nonevent. Temps are gonna have to be in the 25 range for this to be significant. Current temp up here is already 25

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Even at 30-32f it’s a nonevent. Temps are gonna have to be in the 25 range for this to be significant. Current temp up here is 25

I agree. I do not expect a significant icing event in our subforum at this point. This setup trended away from that. 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I agree. I do not expect a significant icing event in our subforum at this point. This setup trended away from that. 

I pray you are right. 

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

Even at 30-32f it’s a nonevent. Temps are gonna have to be in the 25 range for this to be significant. Current temp up here is 25

I have already gotten to 27 here in Narrowsburg, and probably won’t move much below 28 tonight. Even though the ZR happens at night it’ll probably be coming down too heavy to accrete well + fast overall motion leads me to believe max totals might be closer to .3-.4 than up to .6.

[Brian5671]

33 here just had a light rain shower....

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, Brett said:

Just looked at piviotal it seems the NAM starts as a brief mix with no snow then goes to plain rain rather quickly and torrential rain at that

most of these advisories (except well inland) will be canceled fairly quickly....

[Brian5671]

Just now, Brett said:

I can’t believe I am up to 30 already I thought I would still be in the mid 20’s at this time

the airmass is stale and any left over cold will quickly be routed out.    Would be another thing if temps were 15-20 this am....

[gpsnavigator]

The temperature here in Sparta has dropped in the last hour from 33 to 30 with a light mist.  Our deck is starting to glaze over again after having previously melted.  Don't know if it means anything, but that's what we are seeing here.