Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, Brett said:

The models don’t have any snow for my area until Thursday. I live in northern Bergen Co on the NY border

Which makes sense. Any measurable snow with this event will be 50+ miles N and W. 

[HVSnowLover]

Im still skeptical that it will be plain rain in the interior, the gfs is not going to be good with thermals. Either way love that this is so amped, I think it's really helping with Thursday  

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Which makes sense. Any measurable snow with this event will be 50+ miles N and W. 

At this point Albany is on the fringe of plowable snow vs ice/rain. This storm is long done in terms of snow for almost all of this subforum. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, Brett said:

Getting the feeling that Thursday ends up further north it seems like every storm this winter has ended up moving further north in the last two days or so

Thursday looks to be far more wintry than Tuesday right now. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

At this point Albany is on the fringe of plowable snow vs ice/rain. This storm is long done in terms of snow for almost all of this subforum. 

By measurable I mean an inch at the start and that is still possible far N and W. 

[wdrag]

No additional info from me, at least til 730P.  Looks like some tree damage and power outages to me I84 corridor into nw NJ, e central PA. No science on power outages. Should know a lot more tomorrow morning. 

[crossbowftw3]

Ice Storm Warnings beginning to populate for the NNJ folks:

 

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
  three tenths to one half of an inch with up to one inch of snow
  and sleet.


* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and
  northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute on Tuesday.

[Rtd208]

Winter Weather Advisory in effect here from 1pm Monday until 5am Tuesday for freezing rain. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch possible.

[Pequest]

When was the last time northern NJ had an Ice Storm Warning?

[HeadInTheClouds]

Winter storm watch just issued in MHV for heavy mixed precip. 

[SnoSki14]

Don't see the need for warnings and advisories around here. 

Temps will be above freezing.

[hudsonvalley21]

[NJwx85]

This is another example of Upton not pulling the trigger on ice storm warnings when it’s more then warranted for the LHV.

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

What a load of garbage. I truly hate how Upton downplays every ice amount.

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, Pequest said:

When was the last time northern NJ had an Ice Storm Warning?

when was the last time one verified?   Seems difficult in many areas as the precip often turns to rain  with temps just above freezing

[North and West]

when was the last time one verified?   Seems difficult in many areas as the precip often turns to rain  with temps just above freezing

I really hope it doesn’t ice up. No power and a 15° night makes no one happy.


.

[SnowGoose69]

I'm not too worried about ice issues for the metro despite the NE wind flow...there will likely be periodic FZRA til mid aftn tomorrow but even that is iffy.  The air mass is pretty stale.  I could easily see even with the NE wind the metro being 34-36 all day tomorrow anyway.  We went above guidance today as it is

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not too worried about ice issues for the metro despite the NE wind flow...there will likely be periodic FZRA til mid aftn tomorrow but even that is iffy.  The air mass is pretty stale.  I could easily see even with the NE wind the metro being 34-36 all day tomorrow anyway.  We went above guidance today as it is

Agree this is not an ice setup at this point, maybe tomorrow morning some light spotty ZR but that wave that comes in tomorrow will warm us up, once that wave became more apparent and stronger the ice chances for the metro were done (which I know most on here prefer). It's going to be two dreary days of 33-36 degree rain I287 southeast. North of there it's a different world. 

[hudsonvalley21]

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What a load of garbage. I truly hate how Upton downplays every ice amount.

They do have a history of being conservative at times. In their defense, our forecast area has such a variable and challenging forecast by location. I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes. 

[wishcast_hater]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Agree this is not an ice setup at this point, maybe tomorrow morning some light spotty ZR but that wave that comes in tomorrow will warm us up, once that wave became more apparent and stronger the ice chances for the metro were done (which I know most on here prefer). It's going to be two dreary days of 33-36 degree rain I287 southeast. North of there it's a different world. 

I don’t see us getting much even up here around i84. In my life every storm that was supposed to start as snow and mix to rain happened way sooner than later. One of the exceptions was the Valentines Day storm in 2007. 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not too worried about ice issues for the metro despite the NE wind flow...there will likely be periodic FZRA til mid aftn tomorrow but even that is iffy.  The air mass is pretty stale.  I could easily see even with the NE wind the metro being 34-36 all day tomorrow anyway.  We went above guidance today as it is

completely agree-it was 38 here today well above guidance.  Unless you have a fresh source of cold air, any ZR will cause temps to rise to 32 and then just above.  Also, moderate to heavy ZR will not accrete that well.   IF you want a true ice storm you need temps holding in the 20's and light ZR for many hours.

[bluewave]

Euro and NAM have a heavy elevated convection signal near the coast early Tuesday. So there could  be quite a bit of ponding of water on the area roadways. Especially with the snowmelt and temperatures into the 40s. Should be an impressive temperature gradient between Toms River  and Sussex County, NJ.

 

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What a load of garbage. I truly hate how Upton downplays every ice amount.

While I agree they are, in this particular case I am not super expecting significant icing south of Orange County but could be wrong. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Ice storm warning.  That sucks. I'd rather have 40° and rain. Nothing worse than an ice storm. 

[hudsonvalley21]

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

when was the last time one verified?   Seems difficult in many areas as the precip often turns to rain  with temps just above freezing

If the temps were in the lower to mid 20’s  and held steady it would make a great factor in ice accumulation. Point and click forecast for me is a high of 28 tomorrow and temps rising slightly Monday night into Tuesday.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

If the temps were in the lower to mid 20’s  and held steady it would make a great factor in ice accumulation. Point and click forecast for me is a high of 28 tomorrow and temps rising slightly the Thru Monday night into Tuesday.

the point and click for me in Sullivan has 30 for a high tomorrow and not falling much during the night to maybe 28 before briefly spiking around 36-37 Tuesday morning. I think this icing event won't have great accretion rates overall but can still be messy.

[HeadInTheClouds]

9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I don’t see us getting much even up here around i84. In my life every storm that was supposed to start as snow and mix to rain happened way sooner than later. One of the exceptions was the Valentines Day storm in 2007. 

You are probably going to be surprised then. I see Dutchess county pretty much a lock to get a good deal of sleet and at least .20 ZR. 

[wishcast_hater]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

You are probably going to be surprised then. I see Dutchess county pretty much a lock to get a good deal of sleet and at least .20 ZR. 

Don’t mind sleet. I just don’t want rain to ruin my beautiful snow pack. 

[sferic]

Here in Liberty NY it kooks like ice  and plenty of it ( half inch likely) . Minimal snow <2 inches with this first event. Later in the week hopefully mainly snow but pure rain up here doubtful

Will look at 00z suite to see if things waffle north  or south the nowcasting  and HRRR tomorrow

 

@snywx( Middletown a skating rink )   @Ericjcrash ( you look to be getting the most snow) and @crossbowftw3 you seem to be in the icing camp too

 

Hopefully end of week storm delivers the good and builds on our base which should stay intact with the freezing and below temps

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Don’t mind sleet. I just don’t want rain to ruin my beautiful snow pack. 

I think some sleet but mostly ZR there, may flip to plain rain east of the Hudson but probably not for that long.