Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[NEG NAO]

here is part of the problem

[HVSnowLover]

I think the storm on Monday is ruining the storm on Tuesday (or saving) depending on your perspective. Without that wave to warm things up we would have had a sleet/zr event to the coast. Now I think its plain rain southeast of I287 although still tricky forecast just NW of the city.   

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thats a flood threat.

Euro has been consistently way further east of the GFS for the late week storm. I could be way off but I really don't believe if the Tuesday storm amps the way the models are now showing this is happening on Friday.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I think the storm on Monday is ruining the storm on Tuesday (or saving) depending on your perspective. Without that wave to warm things up we would have had a sleet/zr event to the coast. Now I think its plain rain south of I287 although still tricky forecast just NW of the city.   

whenever the NAO is going into positive territory and the southeast ridge is gaining strength the cold air at all levels along the coast can't stay in place......

[NEG NAO]

the 12Z Canadian moves that strong high pressure into a favorable position for the later week storm BUT that 540 line to the north of us and the configuration of the whole setup looks suspicious IMO

[EastonSN+]

GFS v.16 has been steady as a rock. Absolutely no point in using the old version.

[MJO812]

I was looking back and old model runs from last week and what a difference.  We were hyped over a very snowy week coming up next week lol

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was looking back and old model runs from last week and what a difference.  We were hyped over a very snowy week coming up next week lol

Way it goes. Looks like a lot of garbage on tap. Hopefully we find a way to squeeze out another one.

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was looking back and old model runs from last week and what a difference.  We were hyped over a very snowy week coming up next week lol

If you want to see snow for this week you can still find it on the 12z Ukie.  This is a poster child for a bad algo.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

If you want to see snow for this week you can still find it on the 12z Ukie.  This is a poster child for a bad algo.

Most likely sleet

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Most likely sleet

over 9 inches of sleet ??? I will believe that when I see it too.....

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Most likely sleet

Do you really believe that what it shows down in Virginia today is all sleet?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Do you really believe that what it shows down in Virginia today is all sleet?

It is certainly not snow and yes

CAD

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It is certainly not snow and yes

CAD

Ok.  If you have MPING on your phone look and see what is actually being reported as coming down there.

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

over 9 inches of sleet ??? I will believe that when I see it too.....

The algo is counting all frozen precip as snow.  So if the snow map is showing 9", it's not showing 9" of sleet, it's showing 9" of snow.  Don't use snow maps in these types of setups (or ever).  Go back to the basics to figure out precip type.  

[HVSnowLover]

I doubt Ukie is all sleet,  pretty sure the late week storm at least starts as snow on the run verbatim. We need that high to stay locked in and not have the setup change on us like Tuesday.  

[NEG NAO]

IMO this is a more realistic clown map call it whatever you want snow, sleet, marbles.......

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO this is a more realistic clown map call it whatever you want snow, sleet, marbles.......

Oh I hope. My go to model is GFS v.16 it absolutely nailed the blizzard and follow up storm.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, Snowcane21 said:

Competition is what gets you the best models.  Who cares what country they come from. 

it's not "competition"  it's people working together.  If it was all about competition, then the Euro wouldn't have been number one for more than a decade now.  

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

I have my doubts about all of the models .......this is going to be a week of nowcasting IMO

it's going to be mostly rain here- the writing is on the wall.  Enjoy tonight's event, it's likely the last frozen event we have for awhile here.

 

[eduggs]

The UK is almost all sleet, freezing rain, or rain. Same for the CMC. A little bit of snow at the beginning that inevitably mixes faster than expected. The snow maps are garbage. As others have said they convert total liquid equivalent falling in a non-rain column to snow at 10:1.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Oh I hope. My go to model is GFS v.16 it absolutely nailed the blizzard and follow up storm.

here is your GFSv16 - This is probably the most likely outcome with a stronger southeast ridge and positive NAO developing - can see the outline of the southeast ridge on it

[HVSnowLover]

12Z Euro is colder for this storm, the ice line is now down to the Bronx/Westchester border it looks like 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

12Z Euro is colder for this storm, the ice line is now down the Bronx/Westchester border it looks like 

Is it just the surface temps? Wonder if the mid-levels have also trended cooler?

[HVSnowLover]

Even Central Park has a dewpoint of 30 at the height of the storm which would be a red flag for ice potential on the Euro   

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Is it just the surface temps? Wonder if the mid-levels have also trended cooler?

Everything came a bit south, still mainly ice for your area but the snow line is closer to you 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Everything came a bit south, still mainly ice for your area but the snow line is closer to you 

question now is are we going to start trending back towards the colder solutions of a couple days ago ?? - last 2 storms started to trend back too their original solutions just before the storm began.......

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Everything came a bit south, still mainly ice for your area but the snow line is closer to you 

the ice line is down to central NJ on the 12Z Euro

[Northof78]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the ice line is down to central NJ on the 12Z Euro

Did it show any snow on the front end?

[wdrag]

5PM check in: Kind of looks like a 12-18 modest ice storm ~0.15-0.40" glaze for the I84 corridor, especially high terrain.  Non-freezing rain will probably encroach to near I80 in NJ and southern CT near I95. Here's a graphic from WPC.   Probably begins late 15 and ends Tuesday sometime toward midday?  At 536PM, added the new 72 hour statistical prob of 1/4" glaze. Pretty high prob down here in NNJ.