Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[IrishRob17]

  On 2/12/2021 at 12:07 PM, BxEngine said:

Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. 

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[Santa Claus]

going to need to rely on observations and nowcasting the next several days to navigate the rapidly changing p-types, borderline temps, and waves of precip.  Monday looks like an opportunity to do stuff, if you want to do stuff.

Tuesday looks bad.

[SnoSki14]

Clown range but Nam is really amped on the 16th. 

Seems like models thinking they'll be a phase, which would be good news for the following system. 

If the 16th event is strung out then the next system will be a strong cutter or hugger.

The recent -5 AO is a huge red flag for a wintry event so I fully expect that to occur at some point before winter ends.

[MJO812]

Sleet

[hazwoper]

  On 2/12/2021 at 9:22 PM, MJO812 said:

Sleet

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that looks wayyyy different on Tidbits....

[crossbowftw3]

  On 2/12/2021 at 7:40 PM, sferic said:

@snywx @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash What are your opinions since we span from Delaware Counties  to Orange County

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We’re still probably good to go for mostly snow but I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some mixing 

[sferic]

  On 2/12/2021 at 10:28 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

We’re still probably good to go for mostly snow but I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some mixing 

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I say between 6-12 inches for us by this time next week

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/12/2021 at 9:00 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Clown range but Nam is really amped on the 16th. 

Seems like models thinking they'll be a phase, which would be good news for the following system. 

If the 16th event is strung out then the next system will be a strong cutter or hugger.

The recent -5 AO is a huge red flag for a wintry event so I fully expect that to occur at some point before winter ends.

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Seems like one of those kitchen sink years....all depends on if March is mellow or roaring....

[MJO812]

Gfs is a big sleet storm for the coast

[weatherbear5]

  On 2/12/2021 at 9:25 PM, hazwoper said:

that looks wayyyy different on Tidbits....

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On Tidbits it’s only “model derived”. That map is 10-1

also, it only seems to show rain and snow. 2-M temps are below freezing verbatim, even on the Island until after 12z Tuesday

[crossbowftw3]

  On 2/12/2021 at 10:33 PM, sferic said:

I say between 6-12 inches for us by this time next week

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Another 6-12 on top of the 20” of depth already present...let’s just hope any potential warmup in the next few weeks is gradual and doesn’t involve much rain.

[weatherbear5]

  On 2/12/2021 at 11:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a big sleet storm for the coast

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Looking at soundings, that could easily be FRZA

[Rjay]

  On 2/12/2021 at 9:25 PM, hazwoper said:

that looks wayyyy different on Tidbits....

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The icon on tidbits doesn't have sleet or freezing rain in their algo.  They also don't have soundings or mid-level temps as a parameter to look at but what they do have is surface temps so you can see some of that green is not plain rain.

Oh and the icon is trash so I'd never give it much thought. 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

  On 2/12/2021 at 11:18 PM, Rjay said:

The icon on tidbits doesn't have sleet or freezing rain in their algo.  They also don't have soundings or mid-level temps as a parameter to look at but what they do have is surface temps so you can see some of that green is not plain rain.

Oh and the icon is trash so I'd never give it much thought. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Icon has been doing really well this winter 

[Rjay]

  On 2/12/2021 at 11:23 PM, MJO812 said:

Icon has been doing really well this winter 

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Just bc a bunch of weenies say it doesn't make it true.  Show me some stats. 

[USCG RS]

  On 2/12/2021 at 11:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a big sleet storm for the coast

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This is a classic set up for a significant ice storm down to the coast. Snow pack is still pretty fresh and that's a heck of a cold air source draining down. I would not be surprised for wintry precip, including Zr. 

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/12/2021 at 11:30 PM, USCG RS said:

This is a classic set up for a significant ice storm down to the coast. Snow pack is still pretty fresh and that's a heck of a cold air source draining down. I would not be surprised for wintry precip, including Zr. 

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No one really wants freezing rain. It's such a mess, and we have what looks like days of it coming. I hope to God its sleet at least.

[TriPol]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:11 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ll take sleet over rain definitely

but if it’s freezing rain or rain I’ll take the rain

- snow weenie 

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I don't know one weather weenie that ever roots for freezing rain. Even sleet sucks, but every now and then it can offer something interesting. I've never seen the coast have anything more than .10 of an inch as freezing rain. 

[Santa Claus]

  On 2/13/2021 at 12:42 AM, weatherpruf said:

No one really wants freezing rain. It's such a mess, and we have what looks like days of it coming. I hope to God its sleet at least.

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yeah it's kind of neat as a novelty but the weather in front of us could be insane if it's even 50% of worst case.  like i said earlier about borderline temps, we could thread the needle in either direction with these upcoming events.

[The Iceman]

  On 2/12/2021 at 11:25 PM, Rjay said:

Just bc a bunch of weenies say it doesn't make it true.  Show me some stats. 

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Do you have stats showing the icon is trash? Not totally trolling, I just legitimately have never seen icon verification scores one way or another anywhere so a link to see how good or poor it's done recently would be a cool bookmark. 

[SnoSki14]

Guidance is coming in warmer so I don't see ZR being a concern. It'll probably just be a cold rain for most of NYC metro. NW areas will need to watch out though.

The 18th could be more problematic.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:34 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Guidance is coming in warmer so I don't see ZR being a concern. It'll probably just be a cold rain for most of NYC metro. NW areas will need to watch out though.

The 18th could be more problematic.

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Agree at this point we probably want the 16th as amped as possible and take the rain instead of the ZR and hope it leads to a further south solution on the 18th  

[White Gorilla]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:38 AM, HVSnowLover said:

Agree at this point we probably want the 16th as amped as possible and take the rain instead of the ZR and hope it leads to a further south solution on the 18th  

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Totally rooting for the 18th to deliver a blue bomb for us before the big melt commences the week after, if I am not mistaken about long term guidance. 

[HVSnowLover]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:41 AM, White Gorilla said:

Totally rooting for the 18th to deliver a blue bomb for us before the big melt commences the week after, if I am not mistaken about long term guidance. 

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Yea where you are you may get an ice bomb on Tuesday and a blue bomb at the end of the week. 

[White Gorilla]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:42 AM, HVSnowLover said:

Yea where you are you may get an ice bomb on Tuesday and a blue bomb at the end of the week. 

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If it's an ice bomb, praying for sleet, not ZR.  Sleet is good pack preserver and snow on top of that would be just epic.  We shall see.  Models are so quick to change.  For all I know we could all be looking at 2 flood bombs next week. 

[Rjay]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:32 AM, The Iceman said:

Do you have stats showing the icon is trash? Not totally trolling, I just legitimately have never seen icon verification scores one way or another anywhere so a link to see how good or poor it's done recently would be a cool bookmark. 

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It's been a year since I've seen a graphic with the icon rated but it's a trash model that the NWS never mentions.   Hopefully someome can find it.

I still use this link and it doesn't have the icon.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[KeithB]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:46 AM, White Gorilla said:

If it's an ice bomb, praying for sleet, not ZR.  Sleet is good pack preserver and snow on top of that would be just epic.  We shall see.  Models are so quick to change.  For all I know we could all be looking at 2 flood bombs next week. 

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God forbid...because I have high hopes for this coming week! 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/13/2021 at 2:05 AM, Rjay said:

It's been a year since I've seen a graphic with the icon rated but it's a trash model that the NWS never mentions.   Hopefully someome can find it.

I still use this link and it doesn't have the icon.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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how is it that no one ever talked about it before this season?

I never heard about it on these forums prior to this year

 

[USCG RS]

  On 2/13/2021 at 2:05 AM, Rjay said:

It's been a year since I've seen a graphic with the icon rated but it's a trash model that the NWS never mentions.   Hopefully someome can find it.

I still use this link and it doesn't have the icon.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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I am having trouble finding the verification scores, however,

The ICON is German and the model we use is their 13 km resolution. It is much like our GFS,, good only for macroscale patterns and views. 

They have a 7 and 2 km, much like our NAM and other more short range, high resolution models. In Germany, the higher resolution ICON is actually preferred to the Euro at times. 

[Rjay]

  On 2/13/2021 at 1:32 AM, The Iceman said:

Do you have stats showing the icon is trash? Not totally trolling, I just legitimately have never seen icon verification scores one way or another anywhere so a link to see how good or poor it's done recently would be a cool bookmark. 

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  On 2/13/2021 at 2:10 AM, LibertyBell said:

how is it that no one ever talked about it before this season?

I never heard about it on these forums prior to this year

 

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  On 2/13/2021 at 2:20 AM, USCG RS said:

I am having trouble finding the verification scores, however,

The ICON is German and the model we use is their 13 km resolution. It is much like our GFS,, good only for macroscale patterns and views. 

They have a 7 and 2 km, much like our NAM and other more short range, high resolution models. In Germany, the higher resolution ICON is actually preferred to the Euro at times. 

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Apparently already had it bookmarked but completely missed it.  

https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html

Thanks @forkyfork

 

 

***dwd