Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[BxEngine]

Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. 

[jr461]

  On 2/12/2021 at 12:07 PM, BxEngine said:

Back to the storm....please. Im not moving posts. 

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Can't blame them.  If only we had a thread dedicated to historical events 

[wdrag]

854AM Friday the 12th: Have no changes to the Thursday 11th updated post.  Added the WPC overnight prob for 3"+ of snow which favors north of LI and lots of zr/ip/r for LI and the NJ coast. 

[gmendevils8204]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:42 AM, winterwx21 said:

I guess I'm in the minority but I love ice. I don't think there's a more beautiful scene than having trees coated with sparkling ice. It looks spectacular.

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It's quite a marvel to look at from the safety of home but I don't want to be on the roads.  Look at the highway disaster in Texas yesterday.  Power lines and tree limbs going down are always a concern too.

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/12/2021 at 2:33 PM, gmendevils8204 said:

It's quite a marvel to look at from the safety of home but I don't want to be on the roads.  Look at the highway disaster in Texas yesterday.  Power lines and tree limbs going down are always a concern too.

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Texas is in for a hell of a time. 

Hopefully the warmer guidance is correct and we stay just above freezing.

[MJO812]

Nam is really amped

[NJwx85]

As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. 

Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78.

[NJwx85]

  On 2/12/2021 at 2:54 PM, MJO812 said:

Nam is really amped

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It's actually flatter with the trough than the GFS but stronger with the shortwave which should lead to a colder solution.

[crossbowftw3]

  On 2/12/2021 at 2:54 PM, NJwx85 said:

As someone who would be intrigued with the possibility of an ice storm warning criteria event since it's such a novelty around here, they almost never end up coming to fruition. Most of the time they end up as sleet or plain rain with some ice mixed in. You really need surface temperatures in the mid 20's or lower with significant warming at 900mb to get significant icing. 

Just basing off the 06z soundings but it looks like mostly sleet to me until you get South of Rt 78.

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The good news is that the storm is in and out by early Wednesday so I would think <.5” for most; still, a very messy time if it were to play out. We just saw what happened in Texas with even <.1” 

[sferic]

  On 2/12/2021 at 3:04 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

The good news is that the storm is in and out by early Wednesday so I would think <.5” for most; still, a very messy time if it were to play out. We just saw what happened in Texas with even <.1” 

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You don;t see all snow for us with tues-wed ?

[crossbowftw3]

  On 2/12/2021 at 3:09 PM, sferic said:

You don;t see all snow for us with tues-wed ?

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We should be up here but I’m more speaking for those who would see ice in the vicinity of 84-95

[justinj]

  On 2/12/2021 at 3:09 PM, sferic said:

You don;t see all snow for us with tues-wed ?

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Doesn’t look likely

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/12/2021 at 3:04 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

The good news is that the storm is in and out by early Wednesday so I would think <.5” for most; still, a very messy time if it were to play out. We just saw what happened in Texas with even <.1” 

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IMO all major roads should be shut down in advance if we have a major crippling ice storm.

 

[mikem81]

  On 2/12/2021 at 2:54 PM, MJO812 said:

Nam is really amped

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Impossible to tell what is going to do from there. It actually has 850's that are not to warm could be a secondary ready to develop (plus the NAM is always amped at 84)..

The RGEM does it own thing with light precip basically coming in much earlier monday 

 

[USCG RS]

  On 2/12/2021 at 3:20 PM, LibertyBell said:

IMO all major roads should be shut down in advance if we have a major crippling ice storm.

 

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They would be, assuming it was a strong likely hood of a large ice storm. 

[mikem81]

GFS is ugly. lots of FRZRN

[mikem81]

[NJwx85]

Okay I'm officially concerned 

[Northof78]

GFS is sleetfest verbatim?

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:16 PM, mikem81 said:

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why less freezing rain in the city- mostly sleet there?

 

[NJwx85]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:30 PM, LibertyBell said:

why less freezing rain in the city- mostly sleet there?

 

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Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types.

The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area.

Freezing rain is more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. I would still favor mostly plain rain for the city but the surface temps on the GFS sure give me pause for concern.

The GFS is usually too warm at the surface. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:33 PM, NJwx85 said:

Weenie maps are for weenies. That's not just for snow, but for all precip types.

The soundings mostly support plenty of sleet and freezing rain for the whole area.

You're likely to see a transition zone where you go from mostly sleet to mostly freezing rain, which would be more likely closer to the coast where the cold air is shallower. 

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sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar)

 

[NJwx85]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:35 PM, LibertyBell said:

sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar)

 

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This is about as ugly as you can get. Only good thing is that by this panel most of the precip has already fallen. You can see how the drier air aloft is already working in.

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:35 PM, LibertyBell said:

sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar)

 

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Those we could deal with better than freezing rain, though I could care less about sleet. I will say that those events, at least the Feb one, were big snow events elsewhere, like out in PA, not sure what the deal is with this. Sleet, although less than ZR, is just a pain. But the weather doesn't care what I think....darn it...

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:35 PM, LibertyBell said:

sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar)

 

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March 94 had a big sleet event as well, it capped off that famous winter. There may have been some snow at the start, no one much talks about it; gets lost in the other epic storms that year.

[mikem81]

Difficult to comprehend what the models are spiting out. A weak LP is basically cutting into an artic banana high

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/12/2021 at 12:24 PM, jr461 said:

Can't blame them.  If only we had a thread dedicated to historical events 

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Putting current storms into historical context adds to an interesting discussion in my view. 

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:48 PM, mikem81 said:

Difficult to comprehend what the models are spiting out. A weak LP is basically cutting into an artic banana high

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All I can see from reading the NWS is unsettled weather of the most miserable kind. For days it seems. Never seen anything like prolonged days of sleet and freezing rain. This has potential to be umm, bad.

[winterwx21]

I see 12z UKMET is giving us a lot of snow monday night into tuesday. Just another solution in this difficult setup. Anything from rain to snow to a lot of ice is possible.

[mikem81]

  On 2/12/2021 at 4:57 PM, weatherpruf said:

All I can see from reading the NWS is unsettled weather of the most miserable kind. For days it seems. Never seen anything like prolonged days of sleet and freezing rain. This has potential to be umm, bad.

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I believe the fact that models have picked up on an additional wave of precip for Monday has forced the trough to get stuck to the west of the area and keeps upper levels warm. The HP in canda still brings in colder air at the surface but not until Tuesday (as the very weak LP monday Monday ends up in the Lakes region and keep the flow aloft out of the SW).