Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, Nibor said:

Primarily northern portions of our forum. Long way out though.

That would the the worst ice storm for this forum in decades 

[wdrag]

806A Wednesday (10th) update:  No overall change. This is the thread that dove tails with the 11th-13th thread. The 13th event, however it evolves will probably end up with a decent amount of snow on the morning of the 14th and so am continuing the widespread 1-4" idea (even LI-NAEFS rather cold there). Modeling has trended a little colder (blocking) but not necessarily a big coastal, but some WAA snow.  16th: looking more significant than the 14th.  I think it's still cold enough for a front end thump of snow. Ice/rain may eventually get involved NJ/LI but where all snow, seems like a decent chance of 6+, probably I84 corridor, but even LI has a chance of at least a light snowfall prior to a phase change.  18th: may be the biggest qpf event of all 3 with a more southerly track of the trough and a GMEX scoop of RH (18th-early 19th?)BUT, that one seems somewhat warmer... so more problematic for maintaining entire wintry elements, but possible.  The good news: IFFFFF this one is pretty big and more of a southern streamer,  there is a "chance" it will re-energize the block near 50-50 for subsequent events after the 21st. ?????? Cross that bridge after the joy of tracking too many small-moderate events that offer snow/ice to the forum.  A lot to track and maintain an unwavering perspective of what may happen (minimizing big changes to thinking as the models sort it all out).  Added the WPC ensemble chance of 3"+ of snow for the 16th. Small chance we'll be #10 ranked Feb snowfall in NYC CP by the end of the 16th. Depends on amounts 11th, 14 leading up the 16th.

[HVSnowLover]

6 hours ago, Nibor said:

Primarily northern portions of our forum. Long way out though.

looks very icy for all nw suburbs but we know this will change, there is a big storm signal for mid next week which is all that matters for now  

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

looks very icy for all nw suburbs but we know this will change, there is a big storm signal for mid next week which is all that matters for now  

The midweek system has a Ohio Valley cutter trying to move too far north IMO and then redevelops too far north of us on the 12Z GFS so we end up with mainly ice to start with and it changes to rain on the 12Z GFS

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The midweek system has a Ohio Valley cutter trying to move too far north IMO and then redevelops too far north of us on the 12Z GFS so we end up with mainly ice to start with and it changes to rain on the 12Z GFS

And it's probably junk. The gfs tried this for the 14th system.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GEM is a track south of us for next mid week

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The midweek system has a Ohio Valley cutter trying to move too far north IMO and then redevelops too far north of us on the 12Z GFS so we end up with mainly ice to start with and it changes to rain on the 12Z GFS

Para gfs is way further south and east

[HVSnowLover]

12Z Euro would be two moderate ice events in NYC in one week which almost never happens (the big storm is snow to ice to rain for the coast and significant ice just inland

[EastonSN+]

59 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

12Z Euro would be two moderate ice events in NYC in one week which almost never happens (the big storm is snow to ice to rain for the coast and significant ice just inland

Good news is for both events the EURO trended colder and SE. Another tick and we could be all snow 

[crossbowftw3]

I think the overall semantics of the implications of what next week might bring is genuinely stunning all its own all across CONUS:

 

A. A wide-reaching ice storm 

B. Significant snows, with potentially even incredibly favorable snow growth, in regions where you wouldn't have even expected it 

C. In conjunction with B, ridiculously cold temps so far south

[wdrag]

255 PM Wednesday (10th update):  No overall change.  Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near  #11.  No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but  relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment.

Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event.  

Thursday the 18th into early 19th:  Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled.  One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic?  Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice?

[White Gorilla]

34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

255 PM Wednesday (10th update):  No overall change.  Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near  #11.  No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but  relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment.

Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event.  

Thursday the 18th into early 19th:  Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled.  One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic?  Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice?

Incredible stretch of winter weather events, storms 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would the the worst ice storm for this forum in decades 

Bad ice storms arent predictable this far out.

Too many factors have to line up

Just eye candy for now

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Bad ice storms arent predictable this far out.

Too many factors have to line up

Just eye candy for now

yep, and most do not verify for the coast.....you need a supply of cold coming into the storm otherwise temps rise to freezing and just above fairly quickly-the other thing is that you need light to maybe moderate ZR.  Heavier precip has a hard time accreting unless it's 1994 style cold.

[the_other_guy]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, and most do not verify for the coast.....you need a supply of cold coming into the storm otherwise temps rise to freezing and just above fairly quickly-the other thing is that you need light to maybe moderate ZR.  Heavier precip has a hard time accreting unless it's 1994 style cold.

Another beauty was the Valentine’s Day storm in the mid 2000s. That was sleet for hours.

The reason you and I remember these storms in the five boroughs is they are very unusual (as you said)

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would the the worst ice storm for this forum in decades 

looks like it changes to rain here?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

806A Wednesday (10th) update:  No overall change. This is the thread that dove tails with the 11th-13th thread. The 13th event, however it evolves will probably end up with a decent amount of snow on the morning of the 14th and so am continuing the widespread 1-4" idea (even LI-NAEFS rather cold there). Modeling has trended a little colder (blocking) but not necessarily a big coastal, but some WAA snow.  16th: looking more significant than the 14th.  I think it's still cold enough for a front end thump of snow. Ice/rain may eventually get involved NJ/LI but where all snow, seems like a decent chance of 6+, probably I84 corridor, but even LI has a chance of at least a light snowfall prior to a phase change.  18th: may be the biggest qpf event of all 3 with a more southerly track of the trough and a GMEX scoop of RH (18th-early 19th?)BUT, that one seems somewhat warmer... so more problematic for maintaining entire wintry elements, but possible.  The good news: IFFFFF this one is pretty big and more of a southern streamer,  there is a "chance" it will re-energize the block near 50-50 for subsequent events after the 21st. ?????? Cross that bridge after the joy of tracking too many small-moderate events that offer snow/ice to the forum.  A lot to track and maintain an unwavering perspective of what may happen (minimizing big changes to thinking as the models sort it all out).  Added the WPC ensemble chance of 3"+ of snow for the 16th. Small chance we'll be #10 ranked Feb snowfall in NYC CP by the end of the 16th. Depends on amounts 11th, 14 leading up the 16th.

Walt, how many storms in total are we talking about?  4?  On the 12th, 14th, 16th and 18th?  Let's keep it to even numbers to make it easier to remember lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Another beauty was the Valentine’s Day storm in the mid 2000s. That was sleet for hours.

The reason you and I remember these storms in the five boroughs is they are very unusual (as you said)

yes that one and the one in March.  The fact that both had a lot of sleet makes it seem like a lot more than the 10-12 inches of seasonal snowfall we actually had.  Much more impact than that would normally be.

 

[weatherbear5]

We need more of the PV to stick around because we NEED that confluence to keep this from cutting. You have a beautiful split-flow which will result in strong high pressure to the north, but without that confluence it becomes a risk for a major ice storm

Energy from the Pacific rotates in and pulls the PV, elongating it and eventually opening it up and sending it into the North Atlantic. If we can keep that anchored over Quebec, it will allow the low to cut under us, rather then into the Lakes

that’s the difference between, say, the 12z GFS (cutter) and 12z CMC (coastal)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

255 PM Wednesday (10th update):  No overall change.  Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near  #11.  No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but  relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment.

Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event.  

Thursday the 18th into early 19th:  Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled.  One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic?  Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice?

so maybe yet another even day event.... 12th, 14th, 16th, 18th and 20th, so make that a total of 5 possible events lol.

 

[weatherbear5]

Also, with that banana high to the north, be wary of surface temps being warm on the models... 99% of the time winds are more northerly than the models show, and therefore colder temps

[EastonSN+]

GFS V.16 is all snow. Almost suppressed. Then a massive cutter to cause flooding.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

GFS V.16 is all snow. Almost suppressed. Then a massive cutter to cause flooding.

One system at a time.

Let's get pass tonight then focus on the 14th and so forth.

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so maybe yet another even day event.... 12th, 14th, 16th, 18th and 20th, so make that a total of 5 possible events lol.

 

one at a time as someone else said above.

all good dates except 20th may be wrong on my part... impressive southern stream but too much ridging east coast might mean sleet/ice interior, rain coast on the 18th. Pretty sure thats the way we're headed. Lets enjoy whatever w can get thru the early 17th.  All of that looks pretty good to me on wintry weather pretty good increase in snow depth, especially w and n of NYC. 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Incredible stretch of winter weather events, storms 

Yes, all looks good thru the 18z GEFS... sometimes things break down .. my worry,  eventually sleet instead of snow.  Not tonight!

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

One system at a time.

Let's get pass tonight then focus on the 14th and so forth.

Agree with focusing on one at a time as the outcome of each system often affects the next system 

[Fishmn]

What happened to the artic outbteak? All events have P-type issues. I feel robbed.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, Fishmn said:

What happened to the artic outbteak? All events have P-type issues. I feel robbed.

Where ? 

[bklnwx1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

yes that one and the one in March.  The fact that both had a lot of sleet makes it seem like a lot more than the 10-12 inches of seasonal snowfall we actually had.  Much more impact than that would normally be.

 

FEB 14, 2007 Coney Island--all day sleet

[KeithB]

What a beautiful 00z GFS. Has all of us getting 18+ cumulative between now and late Thursday the 18th