Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 2/9/2021 at 4:14 PM, TARCweather said:

The 12z GFS is running now. It seems to take the precipitation for thurs-Friday south as a HP air mass invades the region. Also showing rain on Sunday and Monday with the low that tracks to the Gulf of Maine. I was hoping to see the plows come out once in the next week or so near me but I’m beginning to have some doubts. 

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Too early for details on storm this weekend especially with GFS 5+ days out. 

[Blizzwalker]

I understand there are verification scores used to compare predictive accuracy of models.  I am wondering if there is data that looks at the relationship between time until storm event and the predicted placement of storm track vs the actual storm track (or placement of low pressure).  So the GFS vs NAM vs EURO, etc would be compared at 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, etc in their predicted track for a given event. At each point in time, you would note the difference in mileage (20,50,100, etc) between the forecasted track and what verified as actual.  Of course as the time until the event became less, you would expect less of a discrepancy...think somebody asked something similar a few weeks ago.

Does anything like this exist ?

I am not familiar with verification scores-- maybe that is part of the process of generating them ?

 

[TARCweather]

Next 10 days appear to have interior sections winning while coastal weenies wonder what the heck happened to that favorable pattern and blocking...

[weatherpruf]

  On 2/9/2021 at 4:46 PM, SnoSki14 said:

The storm this weekend will have everything to do with the placement of the TPV & SE ridge strength.

Gfs adjusted more suppressed/colder but the end result would still be a snow to mix/rain solution. Looks like canadian is similar. 

You guys to the north should clean up while areas near NYC are in a more precarious spot. 

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I think we get hit again at least once this winter. We've had 3 decent events, I'd call 4 a win. If it stays cold, who knows, we might get another April event. Been more common in recent decades, the last being April 2018 in these parts....ok it was the first or 2nd day, but you can't expect much beyond the first week....we'll see. Today is just misty rain. Will be a pain if glazes over.

[mikem81]

Ill take this look from the GEFS for now

 

[MANDA]

  On 2/9/2021 at 6:52 PM, mikem81 said:

Ill take this look from the GEFS for now

 

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Absolutely agree.  I'll take this for now.  All options open at this point but have to like cold high banked to west and north.

Opens the door to freezing / frozen precipitation especially inland.

Thursday / Friday event looks like a "no go" for this forum but I will take this for now and see where it heads.

[Edubbs83]

12z Rgem / Ggem had 1-2” for LI / NYC and south for wed night and thur am. 

[HVSnowLover]

  On 2/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, TARCweather said:

Next 10 days appear to have interior sections winning while coastal weenies wonder what the heck happened to that favorable pattern and blocking...

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Does;'t really look like anyone is winning all that much, will change anyway. 12Z Euro was a bit closer on the events this week

[IrishRob17]

  On 2/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, TARCweather said:

Next 10 days appear to have interior sections winning while coastal weenies wonder what the heck happened to that favorable pattern and blocking...

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We all know snow maps are primarily for amusement, especially in the long range.  That said, if you are talking about the next 10 days why did you share a 24 hour snowfall map?

[wdrag]

fwiw... GFSv16 is back running (12z cycle). Unsure how it long it will continue. LI not much snow but some ice and looks like a fair amount of snow/ice I84 corridor or maybe north of that? Back tomorrow.

[EastonSN+]

Getting a bit annoyed with the modelling showing storms coming up and causing mix and rain in lieu of snow. 

[nycwinter]

blame the position of the polar vortex..

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/9/2021 at 9:52 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Getting a bit annoyed with the modelling showing storms coming up and causing mix and rain in lieu of snow. 

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We may have to wait until TPV shifts east. 

The Vday storm could be a sloppy mess if it works out due to strong low level cold.

The following system has more going for it.

[bch2014]

Making plans to ski Plattekill on Sunday... Hoping that it's far enough north/high enough elevation to avoid any mix.

[gravitylover]

  On 2/9/2021 at 10:42 PM, bch2014 said:

Making plans to ski Plattekill on Sunday... Hoping that it's far enough north/high enough elevation to avoid any mix.

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You'll be fine. I'm hearing that it's in great shape there right now.

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2021 at 8:16 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Does;'t really look like anyone is winning all that much, will change anyway. 12Z Euro was a bit closer on the events this week

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Not at all

I guess he hasn't been paying attention to the op runs.

[bch2014]

  On 2/9/2021 at 10:47 PM, gravitylover said:

You'll be fine. I'm hearing that it's in great shape there right now.

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Yup-I'm an Epic Passholder but I'm staying the hell away from Hunter/Mt Snow/Okemo/etc this weekend. Always have wanted to try Platty so hopefully can catch it prime.

[MJO812]

Cmc

[MJO812]

Gfs and para are on board for a snowstorm next week 

[weatherfreeeeak]

GFS storm a week from now 

[winterwx21]

  On 2/10/2021 at 4:22 AM, MJO812 said:

Cmc

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Yep, this GGEM run is mostly snow rather than sleet. Hopefully the weekend storm trends more towards snow, rather than ice.

[HVSnowLover]

CMC has a decent storm signal for the weekend event

[HVSnowLover]

  On 2/10/2021 at 4:25 AM, weatherfreeeeak said:

GFS storm a week from now 

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lot of different  threats, would think one of them would work out 

[Nibor]

Historic ice storm on the 0z Euro. Lets hope that doesn't happen...

[Nibor]

  On 2/10/2021 at 7:05 AM, EpicHECS said:

For whom? I'm ~65 miles nw of NYC currently.

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Primarily northern portions of our forum. Long way out though.

[Nibor]

  On 2/10/2021 at 7:36 AM, EpicHECS said:

Terribly unrealistic to see an ice storm like that. 

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Fun to see on maps. Not so much in real life. Unlikely to happen though.

[MJO812]

  On 2/10/2021 at 6:46 AM, Nibor said:

Historic ice storm on the 0z Euro. Lets hope that doesn't happen...

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Euro has been over amping every  single storm in the mid range.

[wishcast_hater]

  On 2/10/2021 at 9:20 AM, MJO812 said:

Euro has been over amping every  single storm in the mid range.

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Do you ever go to sleep Ant?

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/10/2021 at 7:40 AM, EpicHECS said:

100% agreed. If it happened, I would embrace it for what it is considering that we can't control it. A '97 like event will probably occur this far south toward the big cities at some point in the future, though. It's a matter of when, if you ask me. Not if. 

Still: Given the current conditions as they are, even a .25+ inch icestorm would cause widespread power outages from PHL north and east. It's definitely something to keep an eye on. Huge totals of .75"+ never occur in these locales, though. Ever. 

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uhhh it already happened and it was far bigger than 97- I'm talking about January 1994 historic ice storm.  It was so beautiful!  We had everything that winter, big snowstorms with thundersnow during the day back to back in February, historic ice storm in January and two shots of subzero cold! and even a big sleet storm before the ice storm lol.  We had close to 2 inches of ice on the south shore of Long Island!

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/10/2021 at 7:36 AM, EpicHECS said:

Terribly unrealistic to see an ice storm like that. 

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it's already happened here and it was far bigger than what's on those maps.  I dont think Jan 1994 will ever be equaled.