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Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021


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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The band is insane. Look to our southwest. We have a few more hours of this at least. 

Looks very good for >6".  This is 2"/hr stuff at the moment.  Slight mitigating factor is that the wind has been quite gusty at times here.  The mainland peeps have been talking about how calm its been with the falling snow.

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10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What a positive bust. Speaking of models purely.

Is the NAM suite having a career year?

Funny thing is the NAM was too wet for Warren, Sussex, Orange counties and parts of NE PA for several cycles. Those areas ended up with a minor event. Outside the weenie band that set up through CNJ, southern Westchester, and SCT, the rest of the guidance was pretty good with synoptic features, albeit a touch warm with surface temps.

As usual a compromise solution was probably best.

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6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

28/27/NE1/SN+ (maybe ++)

This is as hard as it snowed at any point a few days ago. Temp is low enough that it's fluffy but it's wet snow, it gets heavy as soon as it's disturbed and piled when shoveling. Seems like about 6", I'll measure an undisturbed spot when it finishes in a little while.

Looks like you're just far enough east. I heard western Putnam is mostly 1-2".

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Funny thing is the NAM was too wet for Warren, Sussex, Orange counties and parts of NE PA for several cycles. Those areas ended up with a minor event. Outside the weenie band that set up through CNJ, southern Westchester, and SCT, the rest of the guidance was pretty good with synoptic features, albeit a touch warm with surface temps.

As usual a compromise solution was probably best.

Agree the overall storm track was modeled fairly well but people kept saying there would be a band on the nw edge. 

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20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree the overall storm track was modeled fairly well but people kept saying there would be a band on the nw edge. 

Yes but it was unclear where that band would set up until nowcast time. Several NAM cycles were too far west with that feature, putting it in NEPA, NWNJ, and Orange County. Ultimately the banding on the NW side did not make it very far inland... but just slightly west of where the consensus best QPF was modeled.

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