SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Had a large limb come down overnight. That's a lot of d-d-d-d-damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Starting to get that Feb 2015 look. ways to go.. but the feeling is there 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Feb 2015 MEH. Still have another 36" to get to where we were OTG. I have about 4" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Downeast Maine is getting down to business. 10 inches reported in Jonesport at 5 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Starting to get that Feb 2015 look. ways to go.. but the feeling is there That's honestly what I was thinking as I was clearing last night. Not gonna lie though, I'm more jealous of the paste that EMA got. I live for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Measured 43cms (17”). Lots of drifts around. Snow is surprisingly dense and has weight. Ratios hovered around 10:1 so not as fluffy as I would’ve thought. Time for cleanup but looks like deep winter#NovaScotiaStrong 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Measured 43cms (17”). Lots of drifts around. Snow is surprisingly dense and has weight. Ratios hovered around 10:1 so not as fluffy as I would’ve thought. Time for cleanup but looks like deep winter #NovaScotiaStrong I wonder how the area from Yarmouth-Digby-Shelburne is faring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's honestly what I was thinking as I was clearing last night. Not gonna lie though, I'm more jealous of the paste that EMA got. I live for that. Yup. Me too. We just don’t do posters anymore inland. Seems like that’s all they get out there on the water is paste while we fluff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said: Downeast Maine is getting down to business. 10 inches reported in Jonesport at 5 am. Their coastline is in the right place for this type of storm. Their longitude hurts when we get the crawlers or huggers. Far downeast (Machias to Lubec) is actually one of my favorite little corners of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 inches in methuen from yesterday's storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. Me too. We just don’t do posters anymore inland. Seems like that’s all they get out there on the water is paste while we fluff I get paste pretty frequently during the fringes of the season. Not nearly as much in Jan and Feb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 What an awesome storm that was yesterday! That was like a weeks worth of excitement and drama with an epic winter tapestry to finish! Day time storm and great snow quality! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 With about 8" yesterday, and over 20" within a 2 week span it's been a pretty good re-boot to the winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Wanted to share this great learning opportunity because it ruined what would have otherwise been an exemplary forecast. Its easy to forget that H7 fronto is simply a snapshot within the atmosphere, and that the coveted cross hair sig usually aligns with the SGZ region to the NW of max H7 fronto, since it slants NW to SE throughout the column with heights....as does low pressure (unless it is stacked). Super Bowl Sunday Snowfall Verification Here is the Final Call issued on Saturday, as a point of reference: versus reality: A Case of Misdiagnosed Frontogenesis The forecast was generally accurate, however, there was one glaring oversight that detracts a great deal from the overall forecast because involves the very heaviest band. The heaviest band of 8-12" extending from southwest of Boston down through northwest RI and NE CT was the result of an intense area of frontogensis that was misdiagnosed. Although the forecast did incorporate this: What was neglected was the fact that the band of heavy snow usually extends to the northwest of maximum area of 700mb frontogenesis due to the way that it is slanted vertically throughout the atmospheric column, including the snow growth region. Thus the heaviest band of snowfall should have extended just to the north of the highlighted area of frontogenesis, which is precisely where the band happen to align. The fact that this band extended further to the northwest than forecast entailed that these very heavy snows also fell into slightly colder air, which resulted in a narrow band of 8-12", whereas the forecast 4-8" fell further to the south. This was a very large mistake that resulted in 3-6" being forecasted for that swath of real estate that was most heavily impacted with 8-12" in a very short amount of time. Thus the overall grade still suffers, despite an otherwise nearly flawless forecast. Final Grade: C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Even though most of us know this, its important to remain mindful of it because I did not, which caused me to miss that band to the NW.....extending SW from Boston. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 And we all knew that band would set up, but the question was where? We probably would have had a better idea if guidance didn't wobble all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: And we all knew that band would set up, but the question was where? We probably would have had a better idea if guidance didn't wobble all over. I just screwed up TBH....no other reason. I know better, and made a rookie mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just screwed up TBH....no other reason. I know better, and made a rookie mistake. looks to me like you were pretty close? I mean, had you gone 4-8 in between the blue and pink lines, you would have nailed the majority. but then yeah, you missed that fronto band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ray, you didn't screw up. I'd give it a B grade forecast. I felt the band was going to set up further S & E over SE MA. Certainly not from Hartford up over to Westwood. I ended up in a "relative" min compared to Norfolk County and out on Cape. Still my 2nd biggest event of the season after Dec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Ray, you didn't screw up. I'd give it a B grade forecast. I felt the band was going to set up further S & E over SE MA. Certainly not from Hartford up over to Westwood. I ended up in a "relative" min compared to Norfolk County and out on Cape. Still my 2nd biggest event of the season after Dec. Yea, nice storm to learn from, regardless.....which is the point of all of this, at the end of the day. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, nice storm to learn from, regardless.....which is the point of all of this, at the end of the day. Thanks. I honestly enjoy tracking storms than I do results of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 It almost would have helped to have a product with 600mb plots. I bet that was near where the band set up. Maybe 650mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Some shots from yesterday. First one was Bryce before he broke my shear pin lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something. Not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something. Not an easy forecast. Agree. That's what I thought too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 As far as guidance, NAM did well. Rgem really was terrible, someone said ICON-I thought it sucked-as all over the place. Euro did pretty well as did gfs once it got a clue around d1-2. NAM family excelled from 84 hours out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Congrats Bridgeport. Yesterdays snow bumped them to 7th most above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something. Not an easy forecast. Yea, Taunton is fine....I just should have had it a bit further north than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 How does one figure how far NW the axis would be? I assume that is based on the tilt, which I always have trouble isualizing (even though I understand it a little). How tilted does it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How does one figure how far NW the axis would be? I assume that is based on the tilt, which I always have trouble isualizing (even though I understand it a little). How tilted does it get? Yes, how tilted a system is matters, but also how far northwest into that tilt does the big lift penetrate. Those aren't always the easiest to diagnose. The models could be a little off on both aspects and you miss by 25 miles on a big band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now