CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band. Yeah I don’t mean placement, just that in the band itself we figured it would be good ratios. I agree placement was difficult and we all mentioned that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band. It's why my preference in situations like this is get the background snow amounts most correct and adjust when you see the whites of its eyes. When you try and swing for the fence and nail the location you usually are off by 20-30 miles and look silly. Or if you go with snowband amounts everywhere you look silly too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb. When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential. Looking back at the kuchera map i just posted 2mT were around 32-33F around i84 to the merritt which is where we have these high ratios. Not quite mid-30s but still warm enough to kill ratios on kuchera. Its also strange how both pivotal and wxbell use kuchera but they are usually widely different. Weeniebell is almost always higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Anyways I’ll be too low because of this band lol. Thought it might be just south of me. Like GHGish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 That death band is slowly moving SE now, so we will be getting into the 2"/hr rates instead of the 4"/hr, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's like 20 miles from the coast? Either way I think 3-4 maybe a local 5 spot does it on the Seacoast. Closer to 25 miles. Small state. 68 miles wide at its widest point. We know how much a few miles means in these things. Not different now. I think the coast has a good shot of seeing a glancing blow from the parting deform band as this thing really winds up tonight. Deerfield etc has no shot at that—too far northwest. If that doesn’t happen then you will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Looking back at the kuchera map i just posted 2mT were around 32-33F around i84 to the merritt which is where we have these high ratios. Not quite mid-30s but still warm enough to kill ratios on kuchera. Its also strange how both pivotal and wxbell use kuchera but they are usually widely different. Weeniebell is almost always higher. I'm just riffing but a 32 would probably give you around 10:1, so actually pulling 15 or 20 is going to be quite a bit of snow difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to be close to that 12/05/12 analog Will and jCT brought up . Amazing similarities i brought up 12/29/12 as the #1 analog yesterday and will mentioned it as well but i dont know about 12/05/12 maybe youre thinking the wrong date? dont think there was a storm on dec 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Close to 4” here. Pouring snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm going to come in with less than my minimum range forecast of 1- 2" Never really got going here outside of an hour or two of steady -SN 26/20 Flurries. Hubbardston is on it's way to almost doubling Greenfield totals for the current season. I think you are about 30mi East of me? As per Google Maps, my house is exactly 30 miles (in a straight line) from the People's Pint...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Looking back at the kuchera map i just posted 2mT were around 32-33F around i84 to the merritt which is where we have these high ratios. Not quite mid-30s but still warm enough to kill ratios on kuchera. Its also strange how both pivotal and wxbell use kuchera but they are usually widely different. Weeniebell is almost always higher. It’s always amazing how warm they are and overestimate interior temps. I mean it’s been 27-28 here since it started at 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This makes up for the screw job on the last one here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Glad to see weathertap finally updated their local radar zooms. Now we just need to wait another 30 minutes for a useful loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s always amazing how warm they are and overestimate interior temps. I mean it’s been 27-28 here since it started at 10:30 Same, 27-28 whole storm. i dont look at them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heaviest of the day. Incredible. Must be 3”/hr easily. What a time to be alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Joe D Jack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Death band slid just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Radar update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s always amazing how warm they are and overestimate interior temps. I mean it’s been 27-28 here since it started at 10:30 They are usually even worse up in ORH county. For years when I forecasted full time, I always had to slice anywhere from 4-8F off model 2m temps (and sometimes more in the correct setup) during winter wx events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6" plus when I left Dot 20 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This may be one of those rare events when the Kuchie would've been more useful than straight 10:1 maps.No...most of them were lower than 10:1 in CT. Probably a combination of a warm BL and most models not getting the best banding as far NW into CT as it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Closing in on 7" now, still with heavy snow. It's been like this nearly all day. Best storm yet since I moved to New England, even if it doesn't end up being the highest total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 portsmouth ri, about 3/4" last 75 minutes. about 2.5" OTG, temps hovering around freezing, getting some drips off the roof now, there is less than an inch on my driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I've been in SN+ for a good portion of the day. Absolutely loving this. How much? Still holding on to solid moderate but I can feel the end is approaching here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Absolute Destruction. Right in the middle of the death band now. Reservoir Road, North Cumberland, RI PLEASE STAY BAND!! 6” in 4 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cars are stranded on hills and pulling over in Quincy weymo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2.25", small flakes, coming down moderately. Could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Cars are stranded on hills and pulling over in Quincy weymo good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Wow what a band that is down south. Congrats. It’s coming down nicely in Hampton Beach now. The dog is happy we got the whole damn beach to ourselves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They are usually even worse up in ORH county. For years when I forecasted full time, I always had to slice anywhere from 4-8F off model 2m temps (and sometimes more in the correct setup) during winter wx events. Yeah .And the thing is unless you’re a met or weather geek or someone that lives in the area and understands the Climo , you likely aren’t gonna know to do that. I know it’s even more magnified in ORH county , but I can look at stuff around here and know what needs to be corrected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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