Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Remember this when looking at snowfall outputs on x “model” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The fronto stuff we said to look for near H6 to H7. I think this morning I was wondering if it would be a little more south, but this looks like what I thought yesterday. I think the one thing I didn’t agree with was with northern mass. That seemed to high. I thought 4-6 here yesterday and then 2-4 this morning. That will be too low. Nobody had 20 to 1 ratios either. I guarantee a lot of people will have ratios close to that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Dendrites are amazing, like Lake Effect Snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, swimmm said: I'm in Franklin, MA, under the band in Norfolk county (though I think maybe not the heaviest of it)... Been steady, heavy, huuuge flakes since about 11:30. 6" on my deck including 2" in the last hour. Been a long time since it's piled up this quick! Keep us posted thought you’d be much higher considering radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Back to S+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Nobody had 20 to 1 ratios either. I guarantee a lot of people will have ratios close to that number. I guess when I look back and saw the DGZ getting annihilated on the mesos, I’m not surprised. I even noted yesterday some models had a good cross hair sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Some pictures from about 30 mins ago here. Snow seems to be getting heavier now. Birds have been crowding the feeder off and on all day. The local hawks are grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3” here and counting nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3.5" Lexington, MA Not terrible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 From yesterdays NAM 6Z run @Hoth and here is an example what "kuchera" was spitting out vs. 10:1..Not much difference right. Dont use kuchera maps, infact dont use snow maps lol. They can be fine for a glance or to see trends etc (i think Wiz mentioned that before) but otherwise its trash. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are missing my point. There are folks on this board that go 100% with what snowfall maps show . They make forecasts off of them, draw maps to them, get angry when they are too low and elated when they are high. I am saying they need to look at more than silly maps . And if you did that for this .. especially on the higher resolution stuff, they showed the potential . I don’t think the globals did as much Ahhh ok. I think we are talking past each other. The only reason those higher res models showed the potential is because they were way too wet, but in this case because of the high ratios it looks like it's working out. The HREF looks like it must operate on some other algorithm instead of 10:1 snowfall... because the QPF looks more like the Global model QPF... but it has higher ratio snowfall. Interesting, I thought that would default to 10:1. Anyway, not to clutter up the thread with this. Basically anytime ratios are 20:1 or higher you'll get a positive bust. That band is still incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Closing in on 6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Death band setting up over me now. Definitely heaviest snowfall rates so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Some totals around the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I mean the observations right now, CHH is heavy snow, mist, 32F, vis 0.25 sm, NE winds, and the bands are setting up NE to SW which favors a pivot location over the Cape. It is incredible snowfall right now over my area. Radar looks fascinating. The band over the Cape is being fed by a southerly feed or southeasterly feed, just watch the radar in close over the CAPE, incredible dynamics right now. Would not be surprised to see temps continue to drop below 30F as the heaviest snow band sets up. Also 12"+ is certainly plausible. WOW! Glad to hear you are finally getting your snowstorm James. Looks like a lot of us in SNE are happy. Always glad when the Cape snow lovers get in on the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kuchera was less! Getting smoked Kuchie can underestimate if you're getting deformed with sfc temps relatively warm at 30F+. As long as the crystals aren't melting or sublimating on the way down all that matters is the temp and lift in the DGZ. Oct 2011 was kinda like that up here. It was high ratio under the deformation despite 2m temps of 31-32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7” 3pm Seymour. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Nah from what ive seen Kuchera was terrible. Barely higher than 10-1. I usually use BUFKIT for ratios but even for this storm it was too low. I pointed out yesterday there would be some greath growth NW of that 600-800 avgd fronto band but didnt expect us to see 20:1+. Even though the model output was paltry on the qpf there was the potential for some great rates over central and E CT. It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess when I look back and saw the DGZ getting annihilated on the mesos, I’m not surprised. I even noted yesterday some models had a good cross hair sig. When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 We're at 2 inches now. I'm going to hold off on sending that up to Norton. Opting to send the 4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Last heavier burst before lighter stuff it looks like. 6.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb. When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential. I feel like when the frontogenesis and sig lines up, lock in the fluff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 2.25" here in Hubbardston. Nice rates right now... Prob will come close to or eclipse my max range I forecast for MBY I'm going to come in with less than my minimum range forecast of 1- 2" Never really got going here outside of an hour or two of steady -SN 26/20 Flurries. Hubbardston is on it's way to almost doubling Greenfield totals for the current season. I think you are about 30mi East of me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6.5" in Bethany, CT. Accumulating snow coming to an end within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Heaviest of the day. Incredible. Must be 3”/hr easily. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess when I look back and saw the DGZ getting annihilated on the mesos, I’m not surprised. I even noted yesterday some models had a good cross hair sig. Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Heaviest of the day. Incredible. Must be 3”/hr easily. Here too. Pouring snow. Hope it pivots over us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8! Inches here. Great storm. Looks to be winding down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is going to be close to that 12/05/12 analog Will and jCT brought up . Amazing similarities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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