Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,585
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Quick Hitter Obs/Nowcast, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
 Share

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Meh. First inch in Deerfield, snow isn't going to last that much longer. I would take the under on 6-8". 

Heh Deerfield. Yea I mean, technically I guess that’s SE NH, but I never considered it that way. That’s central NH in my book. Semantics aside, yes, I agree they aren’t seeing 6-8”; not even close. But I think portions of the sea coast area will. That’s all I’m saying.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol .. not you no. I didn’t mean you. The guilty know who they are. I was bullish on 4-8” statewide based on exactly what you just stated.  If one looked past snow maps and looked at fronto and forcing one could see that being signaled the last couple days. I thought the NAM (while having some high outputs) and the HREF mean showed the overall idea the best. These coastals almost always have that . I just think overall it was a pretty poor performance by the globals as a whole. I’m enjoying the beer out of this today! 

The only reason you liked the HREF and NAM is because they had higher snowfall maps further inland.  The EURO H7 track doesn't look bad for banding where you are discussing.  The globals don't look nearly as bad as you seem to say.  I'm going back through the past 5 runs of everything.

We'll see in the post-mortem but I really think you are just thrown off by the snow/qpf maps

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The only reason you liked the HREF and NAM is because they had higher snowfall maps further inland.  The EURO H7 track doesn't look bad for banding where you are discussing.  The globals don't look nearly as bad as you seem to say.  I'm going back through the past 5 runs of everything.

We'll see in the post-mortem but I really think you are just thrown off by the snow/qpf maps

 

You are missing my point. There are folks on this board that go 100% with what snowfall maps show . They make forecasts off of them, draw maps to them, get angry when they are too low and elated when they are high. I am saying they need to look at more than silly maps . And if you did that for this .. especially on the higher resolution stuff, they showed the potential . I don’t think the globals did as much 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The fronto stuff we said to look for near H6 to H7. I think this morning I was wondering if it would be a little more south, but this looks like what I thought yesterday. I think the one thing I didn’t agree with was with northern mass. That seemed to high. I thought 4-6 here yesterday and then 2-4 this morning. That will be too low.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Heh Deerfield. Yea I mean, technically I guess that’s SE NH, but I never considered it that way. That’s central NH in my book. Semantics aside, yes, I agree they aren’t seeing 6-8”; not even close. But I think portions of the sea coast area will. That’s all I’m saying.

It's like 20 miles from the coast?

Either way I think 3-4 maybe a local 5 spot does it on the Seacoast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in Franklin, MA, under the band in Norfolk county (though I think maybe not the heaviest of it)... Been steady, heavy, huuuge flakes since about 11:30. 6" on my deck including 2" in the last hour. Been a long time since it's piled up this quick!

PXL_20210207_194646449.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean the observations right now, CHH is heavy snow, mist, 32F, vis 0.25 sm, NE winds, and the bands are setting up NE to SW which favors a pivot location over the Cape.  It is incredible snowfall right now over my area.  Radar looks fascinating.  The band over the Cape is being fed by a southerly feed or southeasterly feed, just watch the radar in close over the CAPE, incredible dynamics right now.  Would not be surprised to see temps continue to drop below 30F as the heaviest snow band sets up.  Also 12"+ is certainly plausible.  WOW!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

This may be one of those rare events when the Kuchie would've been more useful than straight 10:1 maps.

Nah from what ive seen Kuchera was terrible. Barely higher than 10-1. I usually use BUFKIT for ratios but even for this storm it was too low. I pointed out yesterday there would be some greath growth NW of that 600-800 avgd fronto band but didnt expect us to see 20:1+. Even though the model output was paltry on the qpf there was the potential for some great rates over central and E CT.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...