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Quick Hitter Obs/Nowcast, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

mcd0065.gif

 


Mesoscale Discussion 0065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021

   Areas affected...Long Island through southeastern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071640Z - 072045Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow is in the process of developing, with hourly
   snow rates expected to maximize around to 2-3+ inches per hour by
   2-4 PM EST across the Greater Providence and southern Greater Boston
   Metropolitan areas.

   DISCUSSION...Rapid deepening of a surface cyclone is now underway to
   the east-northeast of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, as a 100 kt
   cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, associated with a vigorous mid-level
   short wave impulse, noses across the North Carolina coast.  This
   system is forecast to accelerate northeastward through this
   afternoon, with continued rapid deepening of the cyclone, and
   intensifying deep-layer frontogenetic forcing to its
   north-northeast.

   Periods of heavy snow have already been observed within the
   developing frontal precipitation band across parts of southeastern
   Pennsylvania into the Greater New York City area, with increasing
   snow rates in the process of developing across Long Island and
   southern New England.  Latest model output suggests that forcing for
   ascent will increasingly be aided by strengthening frontogenesis in
   the 700-500 mb layer, across southeastern New England during the
   18-21Z time frame.  

   Forecast soundings indicate that this will include the favorably
   cold mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
   growth, which may maximize across Rhode Island and southeastern
   Massachusetts.  This likely will include snow rates occasionally on
   the order of 2 inches per hour, and at least some guidance appears
   suggestive that an influx of lower/mid-level moisture may contribute
   to weak destabilization supportive of convective bursts around 3+
   inches per hour.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2021

Looking forward to that!

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19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We watch the 2-6pm time period around TAN for heaviest rates.

 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

mcd0065.gif

 


Mesoscale Discussion 0065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021

   Areas affected...Long Island through southeastern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071640Z - 072045Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow is in the process of developing, with hourly
   snow rates expected to maximize around to 2-3+ inches per hour by
   2-4 PM EST across the Greater Providence and southern Greater Boston
   Metropolitan areas.

   DISCUSSION...Rapid deepening of a surface cyclone is now underway to
   the east-northeast of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, as a 100 kt
   cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, associated with a vigorous mid-level
   short wave impulse, noses across the North Carolina coast.  This
   system is forecast to accelerate northeastward through this
   afternoon, with continued rapid deepening of the cyclone, and
   intensifying deep-layer frontogenetic forcing to its
   north-northeast.

   Periods of heavy snow have already been observed within the
   developing frontal precipitation band across parts of southeastern
   Pennsylvania into the Greater New York City area, with increasing
   snow rates in the process of developing across Long Island and
   southern New England.  Latest model output suggests that forcing for
   ascent will increasingly be aided by strengthening frontogenesis in
   the 700-500 mb layer, across southeastern New England during the
   18-21Z time frame.  

   Forecast soundings indicate that this will include the favorably
   cold mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal
   growth, which may maximize across Rhode Island and southeastern
   Massachusetts.  This likely will include snow rates occasionally on
   the order of 2 inches per hour, and at least some guidance appears
   suggestive that an influx of lower/mid-level moisture may contribute
   to weak destabilization supportive of convective bursts around 3+
   inches per hour.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2021

I see they listened to me.:lol:

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ratios im sure are super high 20-1 or more. growth on the soundings always looked very impressive to me for this. 

Radar update!

For some reason the OKX radar isnt loading past 11:14AM

RAD_KOKX_N1P_ANI.gif

RAD_KOKX_NCR_ANI (2).gif

RAD_KOKX_N0R_ANI (4).gif

RAD_MOS_STATE_NJ_L2WINTER_ANI (2).gif

RAD_MOS_STATE_NJ_L2NCR_ANI (2).gif

Where do u get those radar images they are cool.

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