Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9

[BxSnowWx37]

Its gonna snow where it wants to snow ..id say this stays mostly snow in nyc,maybe mixing at the imm coast and l.i...

[mikem81]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs also ticked north at 6z

It went back ever so slightly south at 12Z (maybe 10-20 miles)..

[Brian5671]

GFS cold too-looks like NAM is either an warm outlier or its on to something.

[sferic]

2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Guess we get to do this again tomorrow @sferic probably another 3-4” on top everything we’ve seen in just the last 9 days  

yes indeed and more chances down the road too. For tomorrow it's still possible 4-6 is within reason. Waiting for a WWA or WSW perhaps

[sferic]

57 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Actually, upon further investigation snow ratios should be very favorable tomorrow here inland...talking probably right around 15:1 for a majority of the event. wouldn’t be shocked if someone maxes out between 8-9” in elevations where it stays the coldest longest, with most probably getting 3-6”

Just saw this post, yes indeed

[mikem81]

There is a smal coastal that forms tomorrow morning. Depending on where it forms will make a big difference in the NYC metro area

[EastonSN+]

NWS kind of bullish with 2 to 4 for the region save 1 to 2 LI.

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

NWS kind of bullish with 2 to 4 for the region save 1 to 2 LI.

They have the hot hand.  Went for 3-7 here yesterday despite no model showing more than 3.  They still busted slightly low in some spots (BDR had 7.8)

[SnoSki14]

Canadian looks better. 

-NAO with AO rapidly diving plus the extent of the cold/snow cover would argue for slight southerly adjustments for Tuesday. 

The amped Nam doesn't make much sense here. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Its gonna snow where it wants to snow ..id say this stays mostly snow in nyc,maybe mixing at the imm coast and l.i...

Agree. I think immediate south shore of LI and immediate coastal areas of the city mix, 1-3 inches for North Shore/Bronx/Immediate NW burbs, maybe 2-4 or higher NW of I287

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Why would this come in warm for tomorrow?

The low is offshore. Airmass decent.

Rain to 84 seems unlikely

Agree I have developed a rule which so far has had some success in predicting storms. If it starts below freezing in the city and no there is no strong mid level warmth expect it to perform well, if it starts above freezing in the city but strong dynamics (ex: yesterday) expect it to perform. Any other scenarios expect totals to bust low. This one starts below freezing in the city.  (there is some mid level warmth but with a weak low tracking off the coast I wouldn't expect it to be that strong) 

[HeadInTheClouds]

19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree I have developed a rule which so far has had some success in predicting storms. If it starts below freezing in the city and no there is no strong mid level warmth expect it to perform well, if it starts above freezing in the city but strong dynamics (ex: yesterday) expect it to perform. Any other scenarios expect totals to bust low. This one starts below freezing in the city.  (there is some mid level warmth but with a weak low tracking off the coast I wouldn't expect it to be that strong) 

Well, NWS Albany has me all snow but with a 35* high tomorrow and I'm 20 miles north of 84 so they are buying some some warming apparently. 

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Well, NWS Albany has me all snow but with a 35* high tomorrow and I'm 20 miles north of 84 so they are buying some some warming apparently. 

Upton has Orange/Putnam counties to your south maxing out in the low 30s and even has my area at the border of the city as all snow tomorrow so the two NWS don't seem to agree

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS cold too-looks like NAM is either an warm outlier or its on to something.

It’s onto something IMO, every storm this winter has bumped north, every single one has had a north trend due to the models severely underestimating the SE Ridge

[Brian5671]

Euro looks like the UKIE with a sharp cutoff just north of the city

[mikem81]

EURO not much precip until you get up north of Tappan Zee

[wishcast_hater]

14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Well, NWS Albany has me all snow but with a 35* high tomorrow and I'm 20 miles north of 84 so they are buying some some warming apparently. 

Really?  Im forcast for a high of 31 degrees and I'm in Beekman/Lagrangeville.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

Really?  Im forcast for a high of 31 degrees and I'm in Beekman/Lagrangeville.

I thought it was weird also. Too high IMO but it does say high near 35. I was thinking more like 30. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

[White Gorilla]

52 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Really?  Im forcast for a high of 31 degrees and I'm in Beekman/Lagrangeville.

Same.  

[HVSnowLover]

55 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

EURO not much precip until you get up north of Tappan Zee

That map looks about what is being forecasted. Less than an inch southern NYC/1-3 inches Northern NYC/Immediate suburbs. 3-6 NW of I287.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s onto something IMO, every storm this winter has bumped north, every single one has had a north trend due to the models severely underestimating the SE Ridge

Yesterdays didn't bump north (at least under 48 hours). Agree though most storms have.

[sferic]

@Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3 WWA are up for Sullivan and Deleware  for  up to 7 inches possible

[Mitchel Volk]

Sensible warming from the ocean will give the city and the coast mainly rain.  The next system will have much more snow.

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Sensible warming from the ocean will give the city and the coast mainly rain.  The next system will have much more snow.

So you're pretty sure the RGEM is wrong then. We can still hope for the slight chance that it's right though.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Sensible warming from the ocean will give the city and the coast mainly rain.  The next system will have much more snow.

I'm starting to lean that way too. 

Not much precip with it either. I'm liking the overrunning a lot better Thursday/Friday.

[Brian5671]

18z NAM south

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

18z NAM south

Pretty significant south shift from its ridiculously warm 12z run. Still not enough as it keeps the 1 inch of snow line slightly north of NYC, but another shift like this on the 0z run tonight would put NYC in the game. This certainly gives hope that there's at least a slight chance that RGEM is right with the snowy solution.

[sussexcountyobs]

Winter weather advisory up for 3-4" of snow tomorrow. 

[hudsonvalley21]

15 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Winter weather advisory up for 3-4" of snow tomorrow. 

OKX just posted for some too.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
328 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-091000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.210209T0900Z-210210T0600Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
328 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday