Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9

[wdrag]

649A/8. Little change to the thread, except greater emphasis on snow event. Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain?  My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain.  I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat.  

WPC probs issued early this morning for 1 and 4". Use-rely upon as you prefer.  It's going to snow, even NYC but how much NYC-LI and central NJ??

 

 

716A/7  No change to this thread. Think this is reasonable.  NYC might get a little wet snow accumulation from this but still on the margins. Will look at this much more closely Monday morning.  Overall...a minor event except for where a few vehicles slide off the road along the I84 corridor or folks slip and fall stepping outside in that area, even down into the suburbs immediately west and north of NYC.  Sometimes most of the accidents are in these small events.  Therefore, even though a minor climo event for the wintry weather elements, it's still significant for those who are directly impacted. 

 

It appears LI (NYC) and the region along and s of I78 will be too warm for any accumulative snow, but it is not impossible to see several hours of wet snow there as well with something minor, especially if it arrives prior to 9AM.  

This primarily looks to be ne PA/nw NJ potentially hazardous snow event across to CT/MA. Amounts east of the CT River may end up closer to the 5" of the expected 1-5" range.  This is a WAA pattern behind the departing Super Bowl Sunday event. Tentatively expect all treated valley and coastal roads will be mostly wet but  could be slippery at times? Hilly terrain should be slippery at times, despite treatment.  This water content, while minor, adds to the accumulations already on the ground and well insulated or unheated roofs PA/NJ/NYS/CT. 

Will add more graphics tomorrow, once we get past Super Sunday. The initial graphic is the low chance of 3"+ of snow per the WPC ensembles. 

[hudsonvalley21]

13 hours ago, wdrag said:

It appears LI (NYC) and the region along and s of I78 will be too warm for any accumulative snow, but it is not impossible to see several hours of wet snow there as well with something minor, especially if it arrives prior to 9AM.  

This primarily looks to be ne PA/nw NJ potentially hazardous snow event across to CT/MA. Amounts east of the CT River may end up closer to the 5" of the expected 1-5" range.  This is a WAA pattern behind the departing Super Bowl Sunday event. Tentatively expect all treated valley and coastal roads will be mostly wet but  could be slippery at times? Hilly terrain should be slippery at times, despite treatment.  This water content, while minor, adds to the accumulations already on the ground and well insulated or unheated roofs PA/NJ/NYS/CT. 

Will add more graphics tomorrow, once we get past Super Sunday. The initial graphic is txh'e low chance of 3"+ of snow per the WPC ensembles. 

Today’s 18z GFS 24 hour snowfall map for the Tuesday event.

 

[wdrag]

716A/7  No change to this thread. Think this is reasonable.  NYC might get a little wet snow accumulation from this but still on the margins. Will look at this much more closely Monday morning.  Overall...a minor event except for where a few vehicles slide off the road along the I84 corridor or folks slip and fall stepping outside in that area, even down into the suburbs immediately west and north of NYC.  Sometimes most of the accidents are in these small events.  Therefore, even though a minor climo event for the wintry weather elements, it's still significant for those who are directly impacted. 

[gravitylover]

P&C has me for 1-2" Tuesday. Do we still think that's going to happen? 

[MJO812]

Euro and gfs keeps shifting south

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro and gfs keeps shifting south

And the beat goes on. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And the beat goes on. 

La Nina plus blocking FTW

[Northof78]

Seems most models outside of NAM have 2-4” for N/C NJ and north....

[White Gorilla]

Any snow maps? 

[denvillenj]

[HeadInTheClouds]

RGEM 

 

 

[Northof78]

gfs just jackpoted N NJ/NYC with 0.5” QPF and 5-6” snow

 

[wdrag]

Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain?  My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain.  I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat.  

WPC probs issued early this morning for 1 and 4". Use-rely as you prefer.  It's going to snow, even NYC but how much NYC-LI and central NJ??

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This mornings GFS very aggressive with the HV for tomorrows storm. The 6 inches seems overdone, but in this current pattern maybe not. When it wants to snow in your area you run with it as long as you can.

 

[gmendevils8204]

28 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This mornings GFS very aggressive with the HV for tomorrows storm. The 6 inches seems overdone, but in this current pattern maybe not. When it wants to snow in your area you run with it as long as you can.

 

Pretty incredible stretch in what had been a lackluster winter until about a week ago. I’ll take it all.

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Pretty incredible stretch in what had been a lackluster winter until about a week ago. I’ll take it all.

Hopefully the snow will expand a bit south, but we'll still take the mood flakes. I've no rationale as to why it would, but things seem to be overperforming a bit this year.

[crossbowftw3]

Guess we get to do this again tomorrow @sferic probably another 3-4” on top everything we’ve seen in just the last 9 days  

[Brian5671]

mostly rain south of 84 on the new NAM 

[HeadInTheClouds]

[Brian5671]

3K nam completely different with very little precip in the metro area-some snow north of 84

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

3K nam completely different with very little precip in the metro area-some snow north of 84

 

They are very similar actually in that they show main event along and north of 84. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

[crossbowftw3]

Actually, upon further investigation snow ratios should be very favorable tomorrow here inland...talking probably right around 15:1 for a majority of the event. wouldn’t be shocked if someone maxes out between 8-9” in elevations where it stays the coldest longest, with most probably getting 3-6”

[winterwx21]

Interesting that 12z NAM came in warm, but 12z RGEM just came in much colder. Watched the color loop and the darker blues get down to north central NJ and NYC. It looks as if it gets a few inches of snow all the way down to NYC, and has very significant amounts for northern NJ. Difficult forecast with such a huge difference between NAM and RGEM. Hopefully they will come together at 18z.

[MJO812]

Rgem for tomorrow 

[the_other_guy]

Why would this come in warm for tomorrow?

The low is offshore. Airmass decent.

Rain to 84 seems unlikely

[mikem81]

ICON also shifted slightly south

 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Why would this come in warm for tomorrow?

The low is offshore. Airmass decent.

Rain to 84 seems unlikely

Agreed.  Nam might just be over amping....

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Why would this come in warm for tomorrow?

The low is offshore. Airmass decent.

Rain to 84 seems unlikely

It's definitely puzzling how warm NAM is. Hopefully RGEM has the right idea. Really tough to make a forecast right now with RGEM giving NYC 4 inches of snow while NAM gives nothing at all.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's definitely puzzling how warm NAM is. Hopefully RGEM has the right idea. Really tough to make a forecast right now with RGEM giving NYC 4 inches of snow while NAM gives nothing at all.

Gfs also ticked north at 6z