Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS

[MJO812]

Ratios will be high so 2-4 is a good call unless we get a more north trend

[jm1220]

You can always bank on a north trend especially this year with the SE ridge. Hopefully it’ll be a nice event for most tomorrow. I’d probably go 2-4” as well especially I-80 and south. 

[gmendevils8204]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

January 1961 lowest temp recorded on LI at Upton   -23F.    Crazy stuff.

 

That sounds like it was an incredible winter in a lot of places. I think DC was hit with a huge snowstorm the day before JFK was inaugurated.

[gravitylover]

What about us up here in the northern hinterlands? I'm thinking I should prepare for an inch or less.

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian

[MJO812]

Ukie is north with the wave tomorrow

 

This is only at 10:1

[mikem81]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is north with the wave tomorrow

 

This is only at 10:1

Would not take much to push those amounts up by 50 miles into the NYC/LI area... I assume the precip will also be north of modeling

[SnoSki14]

Advisory snows very likely south of I-78.

I'd go with 2-4" but higher ratios could give us 3-6" especially if the north ticks continue.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Advisory snows very likely south of I-78.

I'd go with 2-4" but higher ratios could give us 3-6" especially if the north ticks continue.

 

 

I think for the rest of this winter if the models are north with a system like they were with tomorrows system a few days ago and with significant accumulations in the metro and then lose the system or suppress it forecasters shouldn't discount the system until a day before............happened last week and now this week again...

[forkyfork]

good luck with those high ratios 

[HVSnowLover]

The trend this winter has been for snow to generally make it further north than modeled or at least for their to be a band near the northern extent of the precip so I wouldn't be suprised if this overperforms somewhere near or in NYC 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Advisory snows very likely south of I-78.

I'd go with 2-4" but higher ratios could give us 3-6" especially if the north ticks continue.

 

 

Upton says little or no snow accumulation south of I-78

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The trend this winter has been for snow to generally make it further north than modeled or at least for their to be a band near the northern extent of the precip so I wouldn't be suprised if this overperforms somewhere near or in NYC 

Not according to Upton or Mt. Holly and others saying only flurries...

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Not according to Upton or Mt. Holly and others saying only flurries...

We’ll see what they have with the PM update. Not a huge shift but seems like we’re at least getting to I-80 with accumulating snow tomorrow. 

[PuraVida]

OKX AFD: 

Early look at incoming guidance suggest a northerly trend with
the sys passing to our south, and may have to adjust snowfall
totals up accordingly. More this afternoon after collaboration
with neighboring WFOs and WPC.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton says little or no snow accumulation south of I-78

The HREF bumped up. 1”-2” amounts are possible in NYC with the higher figure more likely in parts of Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island than Central Park.

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll see what they have with the PM update. Not a huge shift but seems like we’re at least getting to I-80 with accumulating snow tomorrow. 

 

7 minutes ago, PuraVida said:

OKX AFD: 

Early look at incoming guidance suggest a northerly trend with
the sys passing to our south, and may have to adjust snowfall
totals up accordingly. More this afternoon after collaboration
with neighboring WFOs and WPC.

And Mount Holly, seems reasonable

930 AM Update: No major changes to the forecast at this time. Just
made some slight adjustments to temperatures for this morning based
on latest obs and trends. We`ll evaluate 12z guidance and determine
if any changes are needed for the forecast for tonight and tomorrow
for the next update.

[MJO812]

This is starting to look like a 1-3 inch event for the city with higher amounts further south.

[MJO812]

Euro north

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro north

 

all the models are north with accumulating snow throughout most of the metro - now you just have to convince the forecasters that gave up on the system a couple days ago after all the models shifted south.......

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

all the models are north with accumulating snow throughout most of the metro - now you just have to convince the forecasters that gave up on the system a couple days ago after all the models shifted south.......

tonights forecasts will adjust at the 4pm update....

[winterwx21]

The Euro is now showing 2 to 3 inches up to our area now too. Since a good 2 to 3 inches of snow looks likely now, I would think the winter weather advisories will be extended north to north-central NJ and the NYC area later this afternoon.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro is now showing 2 to 3 inches up to our area now too. Since a good 2 to 3 inches of snow looks likely now, I would think the winter weather advisories will be extended north to north-central NJ and the NYC area later this afternoon.

I think advisory is 3 inches or more within 24 hours? NYC and LI might be borderline for that. Guess we’ll see. 

[HVSnowLover]

57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Not according to Upton or Mt. Holly and others saying only flurries...

It's okay on Tuesday upton called for 1-3 inches and I got nothing so now they can call for nothing and I can get 1-3 inches 

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro north

Its amazing how even Mother nature has been this week lol, The Sunday storm hit the areas this storm will hit and yesterdays storm hit the areas to the north 

[HVSnowLover]

Not sure which thread to put this in but since it starts on the 13th Ill put it here but Euro is more amped and juicy for the weekend storm but does change a lot of our area to ice after some front end snow. 

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think advisory is 3 inches or more within 24 hours? NYC and LI might be borderline for that. Guess we’ll see. 

It would have to be within 12 hours.  3" in 24 hours would not get any advisories.

[MJO812]

Euro is a few inches for the city 

What a turn

[Euripides]

Nice trends for next event trending north overnight into tomorrow.

Was there another system for overnight Thursday into Friday? Or is that one now out of the picture for the area?