Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

1-2 inches for the coast 

Hope Euro bumps north and comes on board, after todays bust I want to make up the 1-2 inches lol

[SnowGoose69]

UKMET also north but amounts are quite light 

[winterwx21]

25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

UKMET also north but amounts are quite light 

2 to 3 inches for the NYC area on the UKMET. Not bad. I think most of us would be happy with that amount for this type of event. Hopefully the Euro comes north like everything else did tonight.

[Nibor]

Euro came north. Very light precip, maybe 1-2 inches.

[MJO812]

Nam came north again at 6z

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EpicHECS said:

Yeah, where's this massive ice storm people are talking about? Those NEVER come to fruition in the suburbs and rurals of NYC. It's so rare, you can bet against it every time. 

It's *brick* cold out there. Whatever falls should be all snow. For weeks. 

you must not have been around in January 1994.  There was 12-24 hours of freezing rain with temps in the single digits.  I remember seeing a report out of Poughkeepsie..... "heavy freezing rain temp 3 degrees" !

 

[weatherpruf]

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you must not have been around in January 1994.  There was 12-24 hours of freezing rain with temps in the single digits.  I remember seeing a report out of Poughkeepsie..... "heavy freezing rain temp 3 degrees" !

 

On top of this snowpack that would be devastating. I am on record here; I do not like ice storms at any level and do not get excited for them; I want them to miss us every which way they can. Hurricanes, tonados, ice storms.....don't want to see them ever.

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

you must not have been around in January 1994.  There was 12-24 hours of freezing rain with temps in the single digits.  I remember seeing a report out of Poughkeepsie..... "heavy freezing rain temp 3 degrees" !

 

There was even before that in the 70's on NYE I was a kid then Unc might know.

[Northof78]

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Dan76 said:

There was even before that in the 70's on NYE I was a kid then Unc might know.

Yes, the classic 1973 storm (or was it 1974?)  Hard to find data on the biggest ice storms online unlike with snowstorms, unless you personally experienced them

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

 

Gfs also came north 

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs also came north 

Good chance this keeps ticking north like the last system.

[wdrag]

7A Wednesday update: The 11th is covered now in the OBS thread.  The 12th...be wary of the dry models. Already WAA late 12th in PA.  From the initial thread, I left the door open for the 13th.  Given the early issuance of the thread (5th),  I see this as the event occurrence but timing uncertain. Lots going on and timing of late 12-13 unknown, but just a piece of WAA snow. The idea of the coldest of the season NYC probably won't work out for the 13th-14th. Seems like this is mostly snow and won't quote a final amount by the end of the 13th yet. 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

There was even before that in the 70's on NYE I was a kid then Unc might know.

It was very bad even in Queens. 94 was the best winter ever...That ice storm was a big part of it

[gmendevils8204]

10 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It was very bad even in Queens. 94 was the best winter ever...That ice storm was a big part of it

I remember a Rangers game at the Garden being postponed because of one of those storms, which hardly ever happens.  Think it was against Quebec sometime in February.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

7A Wednesday update: The 11th is covered now in the OBS thread.  The 12th...be wary of the dry models. Already WAA late 12th in PA.  From the initial thread, I left the door open for the 13th.  Given the early issuance of the thread (5th),  I see this as the event occurrence but timing uncertain. Lots going on and timing of late 12-13 unknown, but just a piece of WAA snow. The idea of the coldest of the season NYC probably won't work out for the 13th-14th. Seems like this is mostly snow and won't quote a final amount by the end of the 13th yet. 

As I mentioned last night and I posted a NAM model run from a few days ago here it seems like many models are acting the same way they did prior to this past Sundays storm. They originally have higher precip amounts for the area and are further north with the precip then they all of a sudden lose the storm and in this case suppress it to the south then just a couple days before the storms arrival they return to their original idea of further north and more precip in the area. What is causing this ? is my question. Also as you mentioned now all of a sudden the model output idea of of the coldest temps of the season seems to be in jeopardy. Same thing happened with that for model output earlier in the week. Models were were presenting that idea for early this week and it never materialized .

[MJO812]

Nam is coming in slightly more north 

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

As I mentioned last night and I posted a NAM model run from a few days ago here it seems like many models are acting the same way they did prior to this past Sundays storm. They originally have higher precip amounts for the area and are further north with the precip then they all of a sudden lose the storm and in this case suppress it to the south then just a couple days before the storms arrival they return to their original idea of further north and more precip in the area. What is causing this ? is my question. Also as you mentioned now all of a sudden the model output idea of of the coldest temps of the season seems to be in jeopardy. Same thing happened with that for model output earlier in the week. Models were were presenting that idea for early this week and it never materialized .

Models try to drag the bulk of the cold air across the Appalachians with each too strongly modeled short waves.  Doesn't happen. Until the trough moves to 70W or further east, we have little chance, UNLESS, we can get some decent confluence going in se Canada and place a 1035MB+high up there. I doubt if we'll ever get down to 14F NYC with this current pattern.  My guess is best chance 19th-20th after the main trough moves by but not betting on it. 

What I do think i know, we struggle to get cold air east of the Apps unless the short wave turns our 500MB flow to west northwest or northwest as ithe short wave buries toward 50-50.  Instead, the predominant trough is hanging in across the Midwest and so our 500 flow is ~270 fluctuating 240-250 at times with each short wave.  That won't do it.  

[MJO812]

Nam

[bluewave]

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge helping us out in an amplified MJO 7 pattern.

New run

 

Old run

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

you must not have been around in January 1994.  There was 12-24 hours of freezing rain with temps in the single digits.  I remember seeing a report out of Poughkeepsie..... "heavy freezing rain temp 3 degrees" !

 

What a fantastic winter that was.

There was a deep snow pack like the current one through much of the winter, and that ice storm on top of the pack which stuck on everything for days was for lack of a better word breathtaking in its beauty.

Of course the record cold was the only time in my life I've experienced actual temperatures below -20°. During the coldest morning of January 1994 most recording stations in the HV were -20° or below, Newburgh, Middletown, Poughkeepsie all were sub -20°. I personally recorded -23° in Highland Mills in Orange County. There were readings below -30° within 50 miles of NYC in NWNJ, I think it was Sparta or Sussex hit -34°, someone can check me on that.  And of course this was all temperatures not wind chills. For those that think it can't get that cold around here it does occasionally happen.

I wasn't quite born yet for the January 1961 cold outbreak, Which outdid the January 1994 outbreak,  but I do know Poughkeepsie hit their all time low of -30° for that one. Those temperatures are not just exclusive to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge helping us out in an amplified MJO 7 pattern.

New run

 

Old run

 

I really hope we make it to phase 8. GEFS moves back to 6 while ECMWF gets us into low amplitude 8 then COD.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I really hope we make it to phase 8. GEFS moves back to 6 while ECMWF gets us into low amplitude 8 then COD.

Whats the difference ? We have been snowing in phase 7.

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I really hope we make it to phase 8. GEFS moves back to 6 while ECMWF gets us into low amplitude 8 then COD.

MJO looks to collapse after the 18th or even earlier. 

Low amplitude 6-8 would reduce the SE ridge in the presence of blocking, which is likely to continue.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Whats the difference ? We have been snowing in phase 7.

It works in our favor for weak systems like tomorrow. So we get a nice light snow event. But MJO 7 with too amped a system can present ice issues. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It works in our favor for weak systems that are positive tilt like tomorrow. So we get a nice light snow event. But MJO 7 with a too amped neutral to negative tilt system can present ice issues.

I'm getting concerned about the ice threats. Hopefully it's more sleet than freezing rain. 

Low level temps look really cold too. 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm getting concerned about the ice threats. Hopefully it's more sleet than freezing rain. 

Low level temps look really cold too. 

The record Arctic high that slips south will provide plenty of CAD and low level Arctic air. But ice will be an issue with more amplified systems. We may need to get to within 2-3 days of each event to know how amped up they are going to be. Less amped is better if you want more snow and less ice.

[NorthShoreWx]

46 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

What a fantastic winter that was.

There was a deep snow pack like the current one through much of the winter, and that ice storm on top of the pack which stuck on everything for days was for lack of a better word breathtaking in its beauty.

Of course the record cold was the only time in my life I've experienced actual temperatures below -20°. During the coldest morning of January 1994 most recording stations in the HV were -20° or below, Newburgh, Middletown, Poughkeepsie all were sub -20°. I personally recorded -23° in Highland Mills in Orange County. There were readings below -30° within 50 miles of NYC in NWNJ, I think it was Sparta or Sussex hit -34°, someone can check me on that.  And of course this was all temperatures not wind chills. For those that think it can't get that cold around here it does occasionally happen.

I wasn't quite born yet for the January 1961 cold outbreak, Which outdid the January 1994 outbreak,  but I do know Poughkeepsie hit their all time low of -30° for that one. Those temperatures are not just exclusive to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

January 1961 lowest temp recorded on LI at Upton   -23F.    Crazy stuff.

 

[SnoSki14]

Rgem looks better.

[MJO812]

Gfs is north with the wave tomorrow