Significant snow - ice or rain Feb 10-12

[wdrag]

8AM Thursday the 11th. One event closing out this morning and the the OBS thread will have a CoCoRAHS post  around 11A, and a two day summary Saturday at 10AM.  Whats coming? 

I dropped the wind event from the original post on the 5th and also the coldest of the season NYC.  

Nothing the 12th (my prior concern but unmodeled).  13th.. appears snow or sleet develops late Saturday, probably after dark and ends sometime Valentines Day. Details to be determined. Current modeled warming aloft near 850 MB suggests mostly sleet/freezing rain south of I84 with any snow snow accums in the bulk of the forum under 1" (if anything more than two tenths inch); with 1-4" snow accumulations reserved for the I84 corridor. This is modeled as generally light and appears to be an advisory event due to the probable ice mix southeast of I84.  My concern is that modeling of the warming aloft in our subforum I78 northward may be too much, which would allow for a little more snow than now modeled. Jury out. I'm awaiting further model cycles.  These impressions include seeing op cycles through 06z/11. 

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235PM Wednesday update (10th): Obs thread updated at 225PM with little change from my 7A Wednesday update;  I still think be wary of the dry models for the 12th per the brief potential 6 hr sw 850MB  flow WAA pulse (light snow PA/NJ). 13th...seems like steady snow develops for sure late on the 13th in our subforum,.  Please see the 14th-18th thread on amounts for the 14th.  

 

7A Wednesday update: The 11th is covered now in the OBS thread.  The 12th...be wary of the dry models. Already WAA late 12th in PA.  From the initial thread, I left the door open for the 13th.  Given the early issuance of the thread on the 5th,  I see this as the event occurrence but timing uncertain. Lots going on and timing of late 12-13 unknown, but just a piece of WAA snow. The idea of the coldest of the season NYC probably won't work out for the 13th-14th. Seems like this is mostly snow and won't quote a general amount by the end of the 13th yet. 

 

538A Tuesday the 9th update: Modeling has trended south and remained south, so far,  so that our subforum is on the northern fringes of events on the 11th and 12th, and have no idea of the 13th. Modeling is varied but overall depressed. Dropped the 1/2-1" qpf from the title and just riding out.  Doesn't seem like much except s of I78 where a few inches of snow may occur, with an inch or so possible the rest of the subforum south of I84. Probably nil far northern CT.  Still a delicate balance of short waves moving east-northeast in a fast flow with WAA just to our south. So not giving up completely but the heavier potential from the 00z/6-7 cycles has shifted south. 

 

807A Monday the 8th: Thursday-Friday the 11th-12th: May drop the 13th from this thread tomorrow?? All else is okay, despite some of the more tempered modeling. Too much potential. Need to wait it out another day before any southward adjustments.  Periods of snow especially PA/NJ with less certainty northern CT. My initial expectation from Baltimore northward is anywhere from 2-10" total by 11PM the 12th. Best chance of large accumulations I80 southward but who gets what?? Does look like travel problems at times, especially if the first part develops near midnight Thursday morning (or late Wednesday evening the 10th). Snow accums may only be 2" Philly to Baltimore because of freezing rain/sleet? That would place best axis of accumulative snow somewhere down across central NJ in the southern part of our NYC subforum. Lots of uncertainty on details.  The 10" may be high but it was initial impression yesterday and I don't drop that unless it's clearly not happening.  Ensembles suggest decent snowfall and modeling may yet trend back north? This should bring NYC 1-2" for starters.  Think the NAM/RGEM will be helpful on trends.  No GFSv16 available (to my knowledge). I do see the 06z EC op is pathetic here in our subforum the 11th.  For now, awaiting clarity in modeling. I do like seeing the 06z/8 GEFS qpf and staying further north and snowy on the 11th.

 

Periods of snow especially PA/NJ with less certainty northern CT. My initial expectation from Baltimore northward is anywhere from 2-10" total by 11PM the 12th. Best chance of large accumulations I80 southward but who gets what?? Does look like travel problems at times, especially if the first part develops near midnight Thursday morning (or late Wednesday evening the 10th). Snow accums may only be 2" Philly to Baltimore because of freezing rain/sleet? That would place best axis of accumulative snow somewhere down across central NJ. Lots of uncertainty on details.  The 10" may be high but it was initial impression yesterday and I don't drop that unless it's clearly not happening.  Ensembles suggest decent snowfall and modeling may yet trend back north? This should bring NYC 1-2" for starters.  Think the NAM/RGEM will be helpful on trends.  No GFSv16 available (to my knowledge).

 

730A Sunday: Why stop now... adding NWS  ensemble statistical chance of 3" for the 11th-early 12th as more primer for what is coming, (two events or one continuously long 36+hour overrunning? My perspective only is a range of 1-12" for this event with base 1-2" everywhere in our NYC subforum before any change to ice/rain along and s of I80 by the 12th. Best potential for 12" north of I80 (not guaranteeing amounts this high but I think it's good to set a range of possibilities). In other words a decent winter storm is coming but phase changes and amounts of each are in model doubt.  I do think ice will eventually occur all the way up to ~I84 with rain on LI and the NJ coast. 

 

743A Saturday 2/6: Added the first graphic from WPC... the rather robust  and large coverage Day 7 prob of 3+" of snow-sleet.

 

Uncertainty exists a week in advance on the tracking/merging/intensity of surface lows passing northeastward through the northeast USA late next week. Initial indications are that the event should begin as snow (possibly significant) and may change to ice and rain for a time before ending with a wind driven shot of possibly our coldest air and wind chills by Saturday night the 13th. This event may end up coming in pieces...one on the 11th, with the main event seemingly dominating the 12th. If it is mostly snow, this would increase available potential snowmelt water for the spring. 

[winterwx21]

12z NAM is a decent hit for thursday morning with several inches of snow. Looks as if snow could come in as early as wednesday night.

[MJO812]

Gfs ticked south

[winterwx21]

Looks as if GGEM brushes us with a couple inches of snow wednesday night. Hopefully this won't be a miss to the south like last night's Euro showed. Not a big storm but could be a decent advisory level event wednesday night into thursday morning.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Looks as if GGEM brushes us with a couple inches of snow wednesday night. Hopefully this won't be a miss to the south like last night's Euro showed. Not a big storm but could be a decent advisory level event wednesday night into thursday morning.

Would be nice if Rgem was correct. We get the best of both Tue & Thursday systems.

If everything works out we could get 6-8" but we could also get 0-2". 

[HVSnowLover]

This looks like an overrunning type event, my guess is best snows will be to the south but some snow may make it to NYC area.

[winterwx21]

12z Euro still misses us to the south with this event. Hopefully the other models are right about us getting a few inches thursday morning, but who knows with the Euro not on board.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

This looks like an overrunning type event, my guess is best snows will be to the south but some snow may make it to NYC area.

The EPS and op Euro want no part of it at all

[Brian5671]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS and op Euro want no part of it at all

neither does the NAM-big jump south....

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

neither does the NAM-big jump south....

Looks as if our overrunning event might be falling apart, but still plenty of time for it to trend back in the right direction.

[SnowGoose69]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Looks as if our overrunning event might be falling apart, but still plenty of time for it to trend back in the right direction.

The follow up as the wave ejects behind it might.  The first part I think is done.  The models have had issues for weeks now overdoing the SE ridge day 5-9 or so and then they correct back to a colder idea though not as cold as they showed 10 days or more out.  The last 2-3 model cycles now have massively sped up the progression of the Arctic boundary in the southeast US Friday through Sunday when 2 days ago the Euro and CMC wanted no part of it getting south of Arkansas or west Tennessee 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Icon way further north with wave 1 compared to 18z

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

538A Tuesday the 9th update: Modeling has trended south and remained south, so far,  so that our subforum is on the northern fringes of events on the 11th and 12th, and have no idea of the 13th. Modeling is varied but overall depressed. Dropped the 1/2-1" qpf from the title and just riding out.  Doesn't seem like much except s of I78 where a few inches of snow may occur, with an inch or so possible the rest of the subforum south of I84. Probably nil far northern CT.  Still a delicate balance of short waves moving east-northeast in a fast flow with WAA just to our south. So not giving up completely but the heavier potential from the 00z/6-7 cycles has shifted south. 

[winterwx21]

18z RGEM using Kuchera does get 2 to 3 inches of snow up to north-central NJ, NYC and LI for thursday morning. HRRR and GFS are pretty close too, having our area on the edge of the accumulating snow with an inch or so. It's hard to like this potential event right now with Euro and NAM south. Still enough time though, and hopefully those models will start a north trend tonight. With the very cold air in place, we would have good snow ratios and obviously no problems with the snow sticking. So I wouldn't give up hope for this potential event yet. North trend often works out.

[MJO812]

HRDPS

[HVSnowLover]

Yea pretty much every storm has bumped north in the 48-72 hour range this winter so wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two waves bumps north

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea pretty much every storm has bumped north in the 48-72 hour range this winter so wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two waves bumps north

Nam just came north

[winterwx21]

28 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea pretty much every storm has bumped north in the 48-72 hour range this winter so wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the two waves bumps north

And a nice little bump north on 0z NAM. Gets 2 inches up to my area now, after the 18z run had almost nothing. Maybe our thursday morning light accumulating snow event is looking more likely now.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And a nice little bump north on 0z NAM. Gets 2 inches up to my area now, after the 18z run had almost nothing. Maybe our thursday morning light accumulating snow event is looking more likely now.

Upton gave up on the event - but Mt. Holly kept the door open..........

 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton gave up on the event - but Mt. Holly kept the door open..........

 

Keeping the door open was wise, as we know these things tend to bump north as they get closer.

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM also looks north

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

RGEM also looks north

since the mesoscale models are bringing this back north - the question now is - how far north will they bring it ? Back to here ? Same thing happened with the Sunday storm models had significant accumulations earlier the previous week - lost the storm for a couple days then brought it back to where it originally was to begin with......

[SnoSki14]

These north ticks would really help this time. 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS

[weatherfreeeeak]

GFS looks odd and disorganized for Vday storm 

[HVSnowLover]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS

very light precip for us

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

very light precip for us

1-2 inches for the coast