Silas Lang Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Kind of nervous about temps here in the valley and dry slotting. Not really feeling it to be honest. Seems any time I have to worry about that it means some snow TV and a patchy dusting at best. I would love to be wrong but climatology usually wins at the end of the day. Mountains and plateau will get theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Kind of nervous about temps here in the valley and dry slotting. Not really feeling it to be honest. Seems any time I have to worry about that it means some snow TV and a patchy dusting at best. I would love to be wrong but climatology usually wins at the end of the day. Mountains and plateau will get theirs. Seems like TYS has been on or near that line all winter for several events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I thought this was interesting in terms of seeing how it plays out tonight. GFS sounding near Greene County. The sounding suggests snow, but the wind profile is more consistent with a downslope event. An unusual situation. I have a hard time believing that would actually be snow in my area at that time with that wind profile, but that's what it shows. After that, the wind shifts and downslope stops being an issue. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 My parents in Bham just told me they saw some snow flurries about an hour ago. They were definitely not expecting that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Fwiw Euro seemed to have a big jump just now at 12z too. I can’t get kuchera ratios, but here’s the regular. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z Euro is a definite uptick in snow accumulations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 @PowellVolz, definite uptick in overall precip amounts is driving the uptick in snow totals. No idea if that verifies, but noticeable change. I know you mentioned that earlier. Just following up regarding the 12z Euro op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Given 12z suite, would expect MRX to bump up totals across the valley and hopefully issue more WWAs, surprise there are not much out in the valley as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Given 12z suite, would expect MRX to bump up totals across the valley and hopefully issue more WWAs, surprise there are not much out in the valley as it is. Especially north of 40. Euro is the third mod today laying down 4-6” in my area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Seems like every model posted in here is showing around 6-9" for Cumberland County but NWS says 1-2" in the advisory. Should be interesting one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Euro and NAM both calling snow for McMinn County. Curious as to why there’s no kind of advisory. Guess they’re gun-shy and unsure after the last few systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, McMinnWx said: Euro and NAM both calling snow for McMinn County. Curious as to why there’s no kind of advisory. Guess they’re gun-shy and unsure after the last few systems. HRRR is caving that way too, with each run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 MRX will either jump on the Euro and we'll see advisories in the valley or they call it an outlier and double-down on virtually nothing on the ground from morristown down the valley. With temps way under what was originally expected I think that will have a huge impact on increased chances of valley accumulation. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Unless the are gonna ride the Australian or Somalian models...think MRX will update the plateau/valley 40 north) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: HRRR is caving that way too, with each run A little surprised Monroe hasn’t gotten any sort of advisory. Got some friends up in Coker Creek that are probably going to get a good snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17z HRRR..still snowing central valley northward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Unless the are gonna ride the Australian or Somalian models...think MRX will update the plateau/valley 40 north)MRX’s last disco before the Christmas Eve event they literally said they would lean on the SREF for their accumulation forecast when it was the obvious rogue model. They came back the next day with something even more ridiculous. They said the official amount at TYS was 2” even though they said there was at least 3-4” on the ground but some had melted off. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 A little selective editing with regards to what @shawneastTN said. This is most likely the reality. MRX will call it an outlier and double-down on virtually nothing on the ground from morristown down the valley. This in turn I think will have a huge impact on increased chances of valley accumulation. Do I need a sarc. tag? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Speaking of the latest SREFs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 41 currently, after 23 briefly overnight before some warming towards morning. Still nicely cooled ground should making laying quick for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Speaking of the latest SREFs: Should see a heavy dose of SREF in the AFD lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Chattanooga met Bill Race seems bullish for Chatt on FB, says he thinks this looks like a classic 1"-3" valley snow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Even the RAP (usually not south of 40 friendly) has something on 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Even the RAP (usually not south of 40 friendly) has something on 18z runIt’s interesting how many mods are showing that heavier strip of snow from Knox Co into Blount Co. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 42 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: A little surprised Monroe hasn’t gotten any sort of advisory. Got some friends up in Coker Creek that are probably going to get a good snow! Coker Creek is usually a part of SE zone for MRX...NW zone is for below 1500' or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The WRF mods have gotten better for the valley also. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z HRRR..goes out for the entire system 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z NAM: I prefer the COD depiction (not for any real reason, other than it shows more snow for Knoxville peeps) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 TWC just upped us to 5-8" for tonight. NWS says 1-3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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