Super Bowl Sunday Snow Show

[Icy Hot]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z NAM (3k and 12K) have run...

And???

[Wintersnow888]

26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

They both rocked my area. I'm universally in 4+ inches across modeling. What can go wrong 24 hours out??

I've got 5-6 inches over my house.....so I'm jinxed as well, right?

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

I've got 5-6 inches over my house.....so I'm jinxed as well, right?

The bullseye is to be feared. 

[PowellVolz]

3k was better for the valley. Actually had me on the 5” line in N Knox Co

 

 

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[PowellVolz]

The HRW’s were all better for the valley also, especially north of 40


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[John1122]

GFS was still strong on warm nose but less strong than 18z. Sharp gradient with 5 inches in Knoxville and bare dirt in south Loudon and down 75. 

[PowellVolz]

GFS was still strong on warm nose but less strong than 18z. Sharp gradient with 5 inches in Knoxville and bare dirt in south Loudon and down 75. 

I-40. What a shocker


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[PowellVolz]

Looks like the Canadian is backing the warm nose down the valley a little also.


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[John1122]

Euro has less warm nose and gets the mid state in the game. 

[John1122]

HRRR comes in strong well back into the mid-state. MRX has mentioned wanting hi-res models on board. Be curious to see what they issue. Virtually all modeling is showing Winter Storm Warning criteria for their Plateau zones. Same for OHX.

[TellicoWx]

Poor MRX, soon as they mention the NAM warm nose by name, it spits this out lol

 

especially the NAM
show a significant warm nose that protrudes varying distances north
for several hours. 

[John1122]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Poor MRX, soon as they mention the NAM warm nose by name, it spits this out lol

 

especially the NAM
show a significant warm nose that protrudes varying distances north
for several hours. 

 

I'm most baffled by their statement that there isn't model consensus for the event. It's literally on every single model, the only inconsistency in the modeling is probably from Athens south. They are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, continuing their very long tradition of not issuing a Winter Storm Warning outside the mountains unless circumstances are just slam dunk dire. 

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm most baffled by their statement that there isn't model consensus for the event. It's literally on every single model, the only inconsistency in the modeling is probably from Athens south. They are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, continuing their very long tradition of not issuing a Winter Storm Warning outside the mountains unless circumstances are just slam dunk dire. 

I honestly don't get any part of their Afd for tonight, seems like they made every statement possible as to why not to issue anything outside their normal areas. 6z HRRR looks off to me..if it's downsloping, then NC side doesn't add up. While I think the 6z NAM is overdone (although their is support from several 0z GEFS members), I don't see anything to argue against winter products I-40 north and plateau west.

[TellicoWx]

Think they have stage fright from the last couple systems (especially in the valley)

[John1122]

The 09z RAP bumped totals across the eastern rim, Plateau and Knoxville area vs the 03z run. Has a monster downsloping element in NETN.

Roane/Western Knox went from virtually nothing to around 2 inches.  

[Shocker0]

OHX is insistent at only 1-2" here despite almost all models hinting anywhere from 3-7"

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hopefully we can get some virga falling over the area by noon to help lock these temps in. 

Looks like 40 North should keep the clouds today:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro:

[McMinnWx]

This has been an interesting system to monitor in the aspect that it was there, it disappeared, and then it returned. Hope everyone cashes in to some degree today!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Apparently the disturbance was onshore as of 0z last night, so "hopefully" no more big flippty floppities:

 

[McMinnWx]

The 12Z NAM is being bullish about snow in southeast TN. It’s like it isn’t even seeing a warm nose. 

[Kentucky]

12z Nam through 33

[1234snow]

Dry slot in the valley is becoming more pronounced on all models. Looks like the jackpot will be close to John and into Kentucky.

[PowellVolz]

MRX morning update says to delay the onset of precipitation. More of this that falls overnight the better.


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[McMinnWx]

I would imagine this latest disco is good news for us valley folk. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS has a definite uptick in snow accumulation - both Kuchera and non-Kuchera.  The 12z suite across the board has seen a slight uptick in general - so far.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS on right and 6z on left for comparison.

[PowellVolz]

12z GFS has a definite uptick in snow accumulation - both Kuchera and non-Kuchera.  The 12z suite across the board has seen a slight uptick in general - so far.

Something I was thinking about.... with the overcast sky and temps in the valley running behind schedule, I’m wondering if the mods are picking up on surface temps getting trapped in the valley and staying below what the mods were saying?


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[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Something I was thinking about.... with the overcast sky and temps in the valley running behind schedule, I’m wondering if the mods are picking up on surface temps getting trapped in the valley and staying below what the mods were saying?


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Not sure.  Would have to check. I just assumed it was a slight increase in the qpf.

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC is continuing the trend of bumping up totals slightly, but especially on the Plateau.