Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side. . Was mainly kidding. LOL. Great write-up this evening by MRX BTW. Also mentioned the potential in the LR as well. Sounds like they are using ensembles quite a bit which speaks to the inconsistency of operational and even short range modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side. .Just to add on this.... if there is an boundary laying across the valley it should help limit downsloping some. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX does have a snow map posted if someone wants to show it. I would probably shift heaviest amounts to the Plateau, but overall fits modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX does have a snow map posted if someone wants to show it. I would probably shift heaviest amounts to the Plateau, but overall fits modeling.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: That said, the HRRR is at the end of it's range on the extended 18z version where it's really really unreliable. It currently shows MBY with .1 precip from this with all other modeling showing .5-.7ish. That Model overall has done poorly for this area. Until it improves, definitely not a fan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Was mainly kidding. LOL. Great write-up this evening by MRX BTW. Also mentioned the potential in the LR as well. Sounds like they are using ensembles quite a bit which speaks to the inconsistency of operational and even short range modeling. Kidding about what? I must have missed something. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: . Unless there's a big shift, I'll be shocked if Oneida gets less snow than Knoxville. That would be extremely rare in the set up shown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 SWS here. ...Winter Storm Watch for the Far East Tennessee Mountain,southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina from Saturday evening through Noon Sunday... ...Snowfall Expected Across Much of the Tennessee Valley and Plateau Saturday Night and Early Sunday Morning... A weather system will sweep through the area Saturday night through Sunday morning bringing rain and snowfall to much of the region. Precipitation will begin as a wintry mix Saturday evening becoming all snow early Sunday morning. Periods of moderate snow is possible at times between midnight and daybreak Sunday. Snowfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected across the Mountains with 1 to 3 inches possible across much of the Tennessee valley and Plateau. Travel conditions may deteriorate Saturday night, especially across the secondary roads, bridges and overpasses. Sunday morning commute may be difficult. Confidence of snowfall forecast is moderate to high across the higher elevations, especially areas within the watch area. Low confidence of snowfall totals across the Tennessee valley. The forecast and snowfall totals will continue to be refined, so stay tuned for the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z gfs no snow in valley warm nose of hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I JUST WANT SNOW, BRING ME THE SNOW! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX indeed kicked the lower elevation call to the next shift...right thing to do with modeling still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX indeed kicked the lower elevation call to the next shift...right thing to do with modeling still all over the place. Still surprised they they put 1-3” in the valley with all the uncertainty . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 18z gfs no snow in valley warm nose of hell. MRX mentions the GFS being on an island and probably too warm with the warm nose. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I don't think temps will be a big issue with the precip on the back side. I am just not sure that precip amounts are going to be high enough to get 2-4." With it being at night, that could help. Just seems like the overall system is less juicy. The mountains usually outperform valley locations here in terms of precip amounts - should have mentioned that earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Does anyone have the 18Z EURO? Or did I miss it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just out @McMinnWx 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z RGEM showing the plateau and highland rim some love: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah, nice to have the Euro and RGEM singing the same song now. That is a good combo. Was just coming over to post that the Euro bumped up totals in general by about .5-1". 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just out @McMinnWx Thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z GEFS mean is very similar to the 18z Euro for system one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not that the ground is warm at all because we've just not had any warm weather lately, but it's already frosty and down to 30 here. My grandpa always said if it clouds up in a frost look for snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR looks Euro/ RGEMish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 More boundary layer issues in some parts of the valley tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 That Upper Cumberland tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Still wild blue yonder range for the HRRR but good to see it coming off throwing out .1 qpf here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: That Upper Cumberland tho. Big South Fork for the win!! Man, if I had a 4WD truck, I would be there tomorrow PM, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 hours ago, Coach B said: Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard. Here's Iowa State's discussion of compaction. Pretty interesting and it just adds more value to their awesome meteogram page. I have it up in a browser tab 24/7. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/compaction.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR looks Euro/ RGEMishLOL at that dollop on Knox Co. that ain’t happening. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z NAM (3k and 12K) have run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 They both rocked my area. I'm universally in 4+ inches across modeling. What can go wrong 24 hours out?? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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