1234snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yep, think it is a problem for those in the foothills on the west slopes. Agree.I think it may trend for a problem for the whole valley at this rate. I’d also be concerned for the big I-95 cities in the northeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Edit: It is in agreement with its operational. The different snow algorithms are messing with my mind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From MRX afternoon update. Main focus will be the Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning system. The vertical temperature profile makes this forecast, as always, tricky and quite variable across the forecast area. Will rely heavily on ensembles to help fine-tune the area forecast but latest operational model runs of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are aligning to a potential significant snowfall. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z Euro out to hr 54. On a phone in Knoxville right now so this is all I have: https://imgur.com/a/UJv3cG5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z Euro out to hr 54. On a phone in Knoxville right now so this is all I have: https://imgur.com/a/UJv3cG5I’ll get some pics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro is slightly NW like the rest of the 12z suite. Its western edge of snow accumulation has definitely trended west over the forum area. Looks like modeling is defiintiely relying on the backside of the precip to be enhanced as the system along the coast pulls northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro is slightly NW like the rest of the 12z suite. Its western edge of snow accumulation has definitely trended west over the forum area. Looks like modeling is defiantly relying on the backside of the precip to be enhanced as the system along the coast pulls northward. I think that backside shield will help out totals west of the mountains. The 12z nam went from no backside at 06z to a pretty robust shield of precip. Hopefully that continues to beef up as we get inside a day this evening. Nice little “surprise” event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 00z12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: 00z 12z . Is this the EURO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Is this the EURO?Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 ICON model gets the Upper Plateau with accumulation too. It'll be cold enough at the surface all models. Thickness is low enough all models. See what the afternoon package says about the Plateau. Nashville unfortunately is victim of the stubborn boundary layer, but could still pull off sticking snow if a heavier bust. Issue is easterly wind downslope off the Plateau and some partial thickness issues which reflect the problem. A slightly stronger comma head would overcome for at least a dusting Nashville. Knoxville faces the dreaded warm Valley boundary layer early; but relative to Nashville, may have more time in QPF while cold enough. Not thinking much for Chattanooga though. (Thanks John trying to help though, lol.) On a positive, I think I like the system for northeast Tennessee into Virginia, and of course the Mountains. Maybe MRX yes TRI. Will have some Valley warm nose (partial thickness) issues mid-system, but should end cold with accumulating snow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 My annual trek to Chattanooga has been cancelled. Look for increased odds of snow south and east of 40 regardless of model output. 1 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 hours ago, PowellVolz said: What’s the difference? I always wondered what the Cobb was. . It's like an old school Kuchera. It takes into account melting and compaction for a usually more realistic snow total. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: It's like an old school Kuchera. It takes into account melting and compaction for a usually more realistic snow total. Interesting. I think for official measurements you are supposed to use a snowboard and sweep it clean every six hours. I've used a snowboard for several years now and it can vary quite a bit from old school ground measurements. If the ground is frozen solid, you'll get more with a ground measurement. If its warm and/or wet, you get significantly more on the snowboard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Parts of west and middle Tennessee will like the happy hour version of the 12k NAM..... Looks like the trailing piece is a touch stronger. East Tennessee will still do well also. Should be a decent snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX put border counties of East TN in a Winter Storm Watch for 3-6 inches. Kingsport 1-3 so that will be a Winter Weather Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM still showing pretty good snow. Looks like an initial thump, and then some backside snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Noticeable difference on that run was a further shift northwest with the backside snow and a dry slot in the valley in the middle of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The NAM is moving the snow axis about 150 miles a pop to the NW. Nice statewide run even it is less than favorable for MBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looked like the trailing ULL energy was more consolidated that run. No clue if it's right, but those north of I-40 in west and middle TN just sat up a bit straighter in their seats. Let's see what the 3k says and the rest of the 18z suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3k (apparently it's lightning quick on Pivotal, lol) agrees with the adjustment as it relates to the trailing energy. Maybe we can get some in west and/or middle on the board with this system. Looking less enthused for east Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll be interested to see if there are any adjustments at 0z. If the Lillo info is right, the RAOB data do seem to have an effect on model output, though I suspect it gets less as 0 hour nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like the Nam is either suggesting somewhat of a downsloping effect for the great Valley or just a bit of a warmer heat build up as sometimes does happen in that area even minus the downsloping affect. However, with the more expansive and stronger ULL, probably Downsloping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It’s less fun to chase near term systems when there are such swings in modeling this close to an event. Happy for those west of here, but wondering if Kentucky isn’t the true winner when all is said and done (on this side of the Apps) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I just think something is really off right now with modeling. I will say it makes since with the trough amplification to have a storm move sharply north - that makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why modeling took this long to get to this point. It has been obvious for weeks. We were dealing with out to see options just a few days ago. I really think we are entering a time frame where we need to see the cold driven to the Gulf Coast, and then have the boundary work back north...in order to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If I was MRX, I would kick valley location decisions to the next shift. LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I got NAM'd out the wazoo there but still don't trust it at all. MRX is waiting on the HRRR which is apparently the only model they really trust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That said, the HRRR is at the end of it's range on the extended 18z version where it's really really unreliable. It currently shows MBY with .1 precip from this with all other modeling showing .5-.7ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If I was MRX, I would kick valley location decisions to the next shift. LOL. MRX mentioned an inverted trough up the valley. If that is correct I can see the extra forcing helping with dynamic cooling. If that’s the case I can see this potentially busting on the high side. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 MRX was surprisingly unbullish for snowfall in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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