Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 As John noted the RGEM went from a total whiff at 0z to a more substantial solution at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 It's rare that you see the Cobb algorithm for snow higher than the 10:1 output, but there it is for the NAM at TYS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It's rare that you see the Cobb algorithm for snow higher than the 10:1 output, but there it is for the NAM at TYS.What’s the difference? I always wondered what the Cobb was. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is a fantastic product put together by Jack Sillin. He is definitely a recommended new follow for TwitterWx peeps. If he can figure out how to automate this product I think it will be a great tool for the toolbox. What this says to me for the Tennessee Valley is there is a chance for more amplification. Increased ridging in Alaska and a more robust (deeper) low coming into the northwest vs the forecast could help this dive a bit more coming into the southern plains, creating a track just to the west or northwest of where it's currently projected and a little stronger than currently projected. Time will tell, but definitely something to watch to see how the globals react to the new data. I wonder if this data was used in the 12z mesoscale models? Since there was a bump back northwest and what looked like the upper level energy being a bit stronger, I'd say it likely was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is a fantastic product put together by Jack Sillin. He is definitely a recommended new follow for TwitterWx peeps. If he can figure out how to automate this product I think it will be a great tool for the toolbox. What this says to me for the Tennessee Valley is there is a chance for more amplification. Increased ridging in Alaska and a more robust (deeper) low coming into the northwest vs the forecast could help this dive a bit more coming into the southern plains, creating a track just to the west or northwest of where it's currently projected and a little stronger than currently projected. Time will tell, but definitely something to watch to see how the globals react to the new data. I wonder if this data was used in the 12z mesoscale models? Since there was a bump back northwest and what looked like the upper level energy being a bit stronger, I'd say it likely was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM's energy already looks better at 12z. (past 3 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gonna be better than the 6z I think, but not sure by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z Saturday at around 5PM vs 12z at the same time: Much more precip to the west in OK and Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I don't think that kicker racing in from the northwest is doing us any favors, but it does look better at the surface. This system just kind of developed right under our nose, so it's almost a bonus to be discussing winter this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: I don't think that kicker racing in from the northwest is doing us any favors, but it does look better at the surface. This system just kind of developed right under our nose, so it's almost a bonus to be discussing winter this weekend. I wonder what implications, if any, that kicker digging more would have on the evolution of this system. Not saying that will happen, but if the Sillin info is an indication, that kicker might end up digging more based on the Pac set up and that might allow more room for this one to amplify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Kuchera ratios aren't available for the 6 and 18z runs, but it's probably a good bet that the ratios will be less than 10:1. I’m not going to disagree with you and I’ve only been following valley weather/climate for the last five years or so-I’m no expert. That said, in previous southern locations I lived I rarely ever had a melted equivalence of less than 10:1. In fact the lowest I’ve ever gotten is 8:1 and that was in an absolute slopstorm. Again not arguing but I think 10:1 is fair for most assuming no significant mixing. I actually did a project with KSHB when I lived in KC to determine the average ratio for the winter events there in 2006. The lead met was certain it would be around 10-12:1, it ended up being 18:1 which was significant because he said 20:1 ratios were rare outside of lake/ocean/orographic impacted locations, which KC obviously has none of. That said, if a 3” snow falls and the nws logs it as 1.7” like they seem to do here a lot then 15:1 can become 8:1 rather quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Save the itchy algae! said: I’m not going to disagree with you and I’ve only been following valley weather/climate for the last five years or so-I’m no expert. That said, in previous southern locations I lived I rarely ever had a melted equivalence of less than 10:1. In fact the lowest I’ve ever gotten is 8:1 and that was in an absolute slopstorm. Again not arguing but I think 10:1 is fair for most assuming no significant mixing. I actually did a project with KSHB when I lived in KC to determine the average ratio for the winter events there in 2006. The lead met was certain it would be around 10-12:1, it ended up being 18:1 which was significant because he said 20:1 ratios were rare outside of lake/ocean/orographic impacted locations, which KC obviously has none of. That said, if a 3” snow falls and the nws logs it as 1.7” like they seem to do here a lot then 15:1 can become 8:1 rather quickly. Sounds like you know more than I do, so I'm happy to go with your analysis! I guess I'm getting so jaded about the whole thing that I default to "what could go wrong" mode, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Twill be a fine NAMing for N of 40 areas, I believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 And I should add, unfortunately, east of BNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @Holston_River_RamblerI don’t know, the wiser person would take the ‘what could go wrong with this’ mindset and work backwards to gain insight. You got me beat already. I just measured snow and made a nice presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Save the itchy algae! said: I just measured snow and made a nice presentation. That's more than I've done, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That is a consolidated SLP on the NAM. If real, that could get a lot stronger. I know what the pressure says on the coast but look at the shape of the storm. It is an expansive, comma shaped winter storm. Let’s see if any other modeling bites. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Really pretty evolution on the NAM: Just a wee bit colder and that could be a memorable event, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 And if it ends up digging a little more and as Carver's said, has more consolidated Gulf Low that moves to the SE coast, some eastern areas could get in on the 700mb FGEN boundary they're getting excited about in the SE and MA forums (people who live near Roanoke and Blacksburg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice bump on the 3k also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That is a consolidated SLP on the NAM. If real, that could get a lot stronger. I know what the pressure says on the coast but look at the shape of the storm. It is an expansive, comma shaped winter storm. Let’s see if any other modeling bites.It better dig if it gets stronger or Lexington is in play. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Need to call a lawyer for this storm...I think I have whiplash due to so many reversals of reversals on modeling. LOL. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Will be interesting to see if the RGEM continues to build on its solution from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Need to call a lawyer for this storm...I think I have whiplash due to so many reversals of reversals on modeling. LOL.I still think something happened with the mods to throw them off a few days ago. Incomplete data or something . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I know it's been said, but at least for east Tennessee this winter has been infinitely better than the previous 2 winters. Even for middle and west Tennessee I bet it's had to at least feel like a fairly normal winter to this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I know it's been said, but at least for east Tennessee this winter has been infinitely better than the previous 2 winters. Even for middle and west Tennessee I bet it's had to at least feel like a fairly normal winter to this point.Oh it’s been night and day better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So far with the energy over the 4 corners, the RGEM looks very very similar to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It might be digging just a hair more and I mean a hair's breadth, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Def digging a litte more over OK at hour at 18 - 21z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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