Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The systems evolution wrt 6hr qpf and 500 vort: 850 temps: I'm guessing it sees light rates and marginal temps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 But it is nice to see it not make a significant jump back toward a more suppressed solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From WPC: 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ratios will be your enemy this weekend most likely. It's looking like about 8:1 along the Plateau at hr 60 but it drops quickly down to 3:1or 4:1 over Knoxville and valley area. That's sleet ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hopefully Euro comes inline with the American Suite. It does have a bit of warm bias so, if the lower amounts are based on that and not proximity of System then we may all be still looking at half way decent amounts with its depiction. Just add higher Ratios of maybe 2 to 3. Hopefully, the further North model solutions will verify. Euro could be just under forecasting qpf, particularly on northern flank as John alluded to irt southern branch systems this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Prior post was in wrong thread..moved it to the right one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 00 nam looking good @48 snowing all over east tn. But not as amped as earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Swing and a miss for the RGEM that time. Nails North Carolina instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Swing and a miss for the RGEM that time. Nails North Carolina instead. Crap ! Lol. That's not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Swing and a miss for the RGEM that time. Nails North Carolina instead. I believe that’s the first time it’s had this system though right? Seems like it had nothing at all before . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Crap ! Lol. That's not good at all. We will see where the 0z modeling goes the rest of the way. The RGEM is usually better with Northern stream systems vs Southern stream systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: I believe that’s the first time it’s had this system though right? Seems like it had nothing at all before . It actually snowed on East Tennessee at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like the 0z suite(so far) is a slightly later phase and also a very slightly east coastal low. The 0z GFS looks similar to 18z but with maybe less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It actually snowed on East Tennessee at 18z. You are correct... I just ran back through them and 18z was the first one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z GFS is still a big hitter for most of the eastern valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff H Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Check out the Icon for next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z CMC has it now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I believe there could be even more changes with this one...even though we’re now in the mesoscale model range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Improved run of the Euro at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 John, if you can reel in 2-4 inches of snow for the Chatty area when you come bebopping into town that would be great. You go to Hixson if I remember from posts from the previous years. We're on the other side of the lake in Ooltewah. Shoot us at least a good ground cover over this way. Oh, and bring your own milk and bread. Channel 9 just showed high end snow amounts of 1.1" from Saturday night through Sunday night. Our stores will be empty. Edit: Snow was on the NAM. All other maps show rain Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 06z RGEM is back to being a big hitter. The GFS is as well. The NAM is nice and a little further south. MRX is riding with the SREF. Which we all know will suddenly jump to 10 inch plumes at some point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: John, if you can reel in 2-4 inches of snow for the Chatty area when you come bebopping into town that would be great. You go to Hixson if I remember from posts from the previous years. We're on the other side of the lake in Ooltewah. Shoot us at least a good ground cover over this way. Oh, and bring your own milk and bread. Channel 9 just showed high end snow amounts of 1.1" from Saturday night through Sunday night. Our stores will be empty. Edit: Snow was on the NAM. All other maps show rain Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk I believe 6 years ago yesterday it snowed about 1.5 inches while I was in Hixon. It's the only time I've seen a flake there. Little system worked almost due east across the southern border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Woke up to see the 0Z and 6Z models said, “Lol, southeast Tennessee.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Kuchera ratios aren't available for the 6 and 18z runs, but it's probably a good bet that the ratios will be less than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Here are the GFS snow growth panels. I've never had access to these before, so I don't have experience using them, but thought I'd throw them up here in case anyone wanted to look: Here is the legend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z EPS members: Control Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Normally I would like several of the members being SE of us. This is a WAA precip slug, at least at first, and will likely verify N and NW, but I'm not sure if that precip in NC is due to the members seeing the system further south, or CAD. I suspect the later. I'm at 1300 feet on the plateau and am glad this one is coming through at night, lol. I still am not sure I like my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Sillin is primarily posting for NE folks, but it will be interesting to see how/ if this correlates to the 12z runs here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That may mean it is digging more already, which I think would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now