TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Anyone else lost trying to decipher that AFD..so they are basing the advisory area with where the warm nose lines up, but the warm nose will have little impact on the ptype? Moisture moves out right as warm nose exits? I'm lost lol.. here's latest HRRR with 850c, looks like nose is gone and bulk of the moisture is behind the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Anyone else lost trying to decipher that AFD..so they are basing the advisory area with where the warm nose lines up, but the warm nose will have little impact on the ptype? Moisture moves out right as warm nose exits? I'm lost lol.. here's latest HRRR with 850c, looks like nose is gone and bulk of the moisture is behind the nose. My confusion started with the models, so they went with 4 models and all 3 Hr models were golden then they post that. Very confusing to the general public lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 RGEM just about doubled around Knoxville . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Maybe they forgot to refresh their browser or got hit with the NCEP data feed issue and stuck on yesterday's runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 My confusion started with the models, so they went with 4 models and all 3 Hr models were golden then they post that. Very confusing to the general public lol That was my thoughts. When I read the 4 mods they are rolling with I was expecting 2-4” north of 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wet as in rain or high precipitation amounts?.Sorry, I meant more QPF and more snow! For some reason Tapatalk won’t let me post images. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Some sleet/ snow mix just now up here in MoCo. Temps generally in the mid 40s and DPs in the mid - upper 20s around me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just me but if there is a potential snowfall in the central valley, I always look at the HRRR/3k first (they are usually the stingiest 9 out of 10x). If they are onboard then I pay a lot closer attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sorry, I meant more QPF and more snow! For some reason Tapatalk won’t let me post images. Save the photos to your library and post them that way. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 20z HRRR, liking the plateau more and more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Interesting that snow and frozen precipitation being reported per mping north of Atlanta . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Interesting that snow and frozen precipitation being reported per mping north of Atlanta . Probably caused by MRXs warm nose 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 FWIW 18z GFS 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sleet is showing up as far south as Anniston AL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, bearman said: Ice is showing up as far south as Anniston AL Spann said earlier it's been sleeting off/on around Birmingham 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Probably caused by MRXs warm nose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 21z RAP even starting to throw Chatty a bone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Explain how Oak Ridge is under a winter weather advisory but Knox county is not. What is the reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Interesting that snow and frozen precipitation being reported per mping north of Atlanta . CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Reb said: CAD? Maybe Atlanta but would that effect North Central AL? I thought the same thing about Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Reb said: CAD? Not CAD, 850s are below 0 all way down into that area. Sounding has some very dry air, then 850s crash..what can make it thru is falling as sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, bearman said: Explain how Oak Ridge is under a winter weather advisory but Knox county is not. What is the reasoning? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not CAD, 850s are below 0 all way down into that area. Sounding has some very dry air, then 850s crash..what can make it thru is falling as sleet.That’s going to take a strong push for Knoxville, north to get above 0c IMO. Unless there’s a warm layer somewhere else in the column. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Explain how Oak Ridge is under a winter weather advisory but Knox county is not. What is the reasoning?Warm pinkie though Claxton . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Warm pinkie though Claxton . At least it’s not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: That’s going to take a strong push for Knoxville, north to get above 0c IMO. Unless there’s a warm layer somewhere else in the column. . It's supposed to erode away by 01z and start moving up the valley 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Downsloping, warm nose, snow bubble is right over the home base. Can see it in all model predictions and the National Weather Service disco. #superbowlsnowshowfail I just can't see model increases in precipitation mattering all that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Downsloping, warm nose, snow bubble is right over the home base. Can see it in all model predictions and the National Weather Service disco. #superbowlsnowshowfail I just can't see model increases in precipitation mattering all that muchWhere’s the home base? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Radar showing snow down in Gainesville, GA. Was that supposed to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Went out to change the batteries in one of my weather station sensors and found that all my snow hadn't melted off . My grandma would always say it was sticking around for the next one to visit. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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