TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Anyone else lost trying to decipher that AFD..so they are basing the advisory area with where the warm nose lines up, but the warm nose will have little impact on the ptype? Moisture moves out right as warm nose exits? I'm lost lol.. here's latest HRRR with 850c, looks like nose is gone and bulk of the moisture is behind the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 9:36 PM, TellicoWx said: Anyone else lost trying to decipher that AFD..so they are basing the advisory area with where the warm nose lines up, but the warm nose will have little impact on the ptype? Moisture moves out right as warm nose exits? I'm lost lol.. here's latest HRRR with 850c, looks like nose is gone and bulk of the moisture is behind the nose. Expand My confusion started with the models, so they went with 4 models and all 3 Hr models were golden then they post that. Very confusing to the general public lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 RGEM just about doubled around Knoxville . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Maybe they forgot to refresh their browser or got hit with the NCEP data feed issue and stuck on yesterday's runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 9:39 PM, Kasper said: My confusion started with the models, so they went with 4 models and all 3 Hr models were golden then they post that. Very confusing to the general public lol That was my thoughts. When I read the 4 mods they are rolling with I was expecting 2-4” north of 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 9:34 PM, PowellVolz said: Wet as in rain or high precipitation amounts?.Sorry, I meant more QPF and more snow! For some reason Tapatalk won’t let me post images. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Some sleet/ snow mix just now up here in MoCo. Temps generally in the mid 40s and DPs in the mid - upper 20s around me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just me but if there is a potential snowfall in the central valley, I always look at the HRRR/3k first (they are usually the stingiest 9 out of 10x). If they are onboard then I pay a lot closer attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 9:44 PM, 1234snow said: Sorry, I meant more QPF and more snow! For some reason Tapatalk won’t let me post images. Save the photos to your library and post them that way. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 20z HRRR, liking the plateau more and more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Interesting that snow and frozen precipitation being reported per mping north of Atlanta . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 9:58 PM, PowellVolz said: Interesting that snow and frozen precipitation being reported per mping north of Atlanta . Expand Probably caused by MRXs warm nose 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 FWIW 18z GFS 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sleet is showing up as far south as Anniston AL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:04 PM, bearman said: Ice is showing up as far south as Anniston AL Expand Spann said earlier it's been sleeting off/on around Birmingham 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:00 PM, TellicoWx said: Probably caused by MRXs warm nose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 21z RAP even starting to throw Chatty a bone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Explain how Oak Ridge is under a winter weather advisory but Knox county is not. What is the reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 9:58 PM, PowellVolz said: Interesting that snow and frozen precipitation being reported per mping north of Atlanta . Expand CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:14 PM, Reb said: CAD? Expand Maybe Atlanta but would that effect North Central AL? I thought the same thing about Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:14 PM, Reb said: CAD? Expand Not CAD, 850s are below 0 all way down into that area. Sounding has some very dry air, then 850s crash..what can make it thru is falling as sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:12 PM, bearman said: Explain how Oak Ridge is under a winter weather advisory but Knox county is not. What is the reasoning? Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:20 PM, TellicoWx said: Not CAD, 850s are below 0 all way down into that area. Sounding has some very dry air, then 850s crash..what can make it thru is falling as sleet.That’s going to take a strong push for Knoxville, north to get above 0c IMO. Unless there’s a warm layer somewhere else in the column. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:12 PM, bearman said: Explain how Oak Ridge is under a winter weather advisory but Knox county is not. What is the reasoning?Warm pinkie though Claxton . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:28 PM, PowellVolz said: Warm pinkie though Claxton . Expand At least it’s not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:26 PM, PowellVolz said: That’s going to take a strong push for Knoxville, north to get above 0c IMO. Unless there’s a warm layer somewhere else in the column. . Expand It's supposed to erode away by 01z and start moving up the valley 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Downsloping, warm nose, snow bubble is right over the home base. Can see it in all model predictions and the National Weather Service disco. #superbowlsnowshowfail I just can't see model increases in precipitation mattering all that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/6/2021 at 10:53 PM, suzbyrd said: Downsloping, warm nose, snow bubble is right over the home base. Can see it in all model predictions and the National Weather Service disco. #superbowlsnowshowfail I just can't see model increases in precipitation mattering all that muchWhere’s the home base? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Radar showing snow down in Gainesville, GA. Was that supposed to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Went out to change the batteries in one of my weather station sensors and found that all my snow hadn't melted off . My grandma would always say it was sticking around for the next one to visit. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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