Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gonna have to duck out soon for a run into Knoxville, but here is the precip at hour 39 - 42: no precip type panels available for RGEM on trueweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yuck... it doesn’t like the boundary layer in the valley. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Interesting how often the finger of death shows up in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Overall, take some time to look at the snow accumulation trend since 0z. At 0z, Kentucky wasn't even in the game. The storm has trended the entire state of West Virginia to the west at that latitude. They system is not done on that accumulation map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z RGEM is nearly 150 miles west of its 0z run with the westward expanse of its snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 At 0z the snow axis went from SW NC to roughly Va Beach. At 12z it goes from the Plateau to Boston and is a legit winter storm for the NE with accumulations of 1' in the big cities. So the trend is a more expansive system and moving the snow axis NW due to further backing of the system. I have no idea what the end game is on this, but I don't think the RGEM has caught up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I wouldn’t be surprised if this system ticks further west still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BNAwx said: I wouldn’t be surprised if this system ticks further west still. Ninja. Was just typing this. Man, modeling is really backing west at 12z. The GFS is much closer to the coast in the NE which tells me this isn't done trending here. The western extent of the snow shield is expanding west on most modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ninja. Was just typing this. Man, modeling is really backing west at 12z. The GFS is much closer to the coast in the NE which tells me this isn't done trending here. The western extent of the snow shield is expanding west on most modeling. So is the precip shield expanding west or is the system trending west?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: So is the precip shield expanding west or is the system trending west? . Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 BothI don’t like that for the valley. What do you think?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What would this do to the temp profile in the Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: So is the precip shield expanding west or is the system trending west? . The storm itself has a more northerly(vs east) component to it than it has had during the previous two runs on most modeling. In my book, a storm which is backing(and on the coast) is a good thing. Obviously we don't want it backing if it was in the Piedmont. Someone had suggested downscoping might be a factor, and that might be what we are seeing in the Central Valley. Not sure. A really consolidated storm like the NAM is what we need. These sort of strung out solutions where the phases is late or partial don't cut it. I think the trend is for a strengthening storm. Again, very little runway left as this begins tomorrow. Pretty big move west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Northerly component meaning the axis of snow has shifted more to a "due north" look than sliding to the NE. So, NNE vs just NE if that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I don't know how to describe that trailing energy, but it seems some of the models are keying on it for any hope of accums west of the Plateau. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t like that for the valley. What do you think? . I think we want a more consolidated system and better phase. Not sure if that happens, but that would overcome the downslope IMO. TYS and TRI really need the slp tracking more west of where it is. I don't think the backing will hurt us, but having a strung out system which is in two parts will cause all sorts of problems not the least of which is getting dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z CMC is going to be a good test. It has a very sharp snow axis gradient on its westward side. If it shifts, we should easily be able to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Additionally, we may be seeing the system experience some "sheer" from the Smokies. If it continues to back west, we get a better system and the sheer is reduced. Right now, the spine of the Smokies is just shredding the moisture transport into the region. One more shift, and I "think" that would improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Coach B said: I don't know how to describe that trailing energy, but it seems some of the models are keying on it for any hope of accums west of the Plateau. I never like to have to bank on the trailing energy, or at least its been my experience that it more often than not over modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not to change the subject, but the GFS is much more impactful with the second system...will jump over to the other thread for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Bigbald said: I never like to have to bank on the trailing energy, or at least its been my experience that it more often than not over modeled. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Middle and western forum folks might want to turn their attention to what is going on just after 100. I am keeping that conversation in the main thread, but that is an impressive mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 There may be 1" of liquid equivalent falling in the form of ice, sleet and snow in west TN. Also working into middle TN as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilton01 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: There may be 1" of liquid equivalent falling in the form of ice, sleet and snow in west TN. Also working into middle TN as well... Remember the good days years ago when snow in middle and west tn usually meant good things for east tn.. Rarely seems to happen that way anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z CMC is going to be a good test. It has a very sharp snow axis gradient on its westward side. If it shifts, we should easily be able to see it. Is Crossville/Monterey still looking de ent for this system? Seems like the models show good accums for us but at the same time it looked like we were on the far western edge earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm not a fan of the GFS increasing downslope flow over the mountains. At least for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: Is Crossville/Monterey still looking de ent for this system? Seems like the models show good accums for us but at the same time it looked like we were on the far western edge earlier The trend at 12z is a big move northwest with the snow axis. The CMC has now placed the northern Plateau in the game. If the CMC is correct, would think Monterey and Crossville would be in the game now. It is crazy how far west this has come since 0z. I just don't think modeling has caught up so I am not sure where this ends up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Math/Met said: I'm not a fan of the GFS increasing downslope flow over the mountains. At least for my area. Yep, think it is a problem for those in the foothills on the west slopes. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z GEFS mean is stout for much of the Plateau and eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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