Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Models showed this possibility earlier, took it away, and now seem to be bringing it back for some of us. Doesn't really matter, John's making his annual trek to Nooga to watch the game and that means there's a 70% chance of snow along and north of I-40 at least! Good luck to everyone! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Good ole fashion Nam'ing happening at 18z for a good chunk of the state. Seems faster also, starting late afternoon on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Another good Nam'ing. Looks to start Saturday evening, so the timing should be good. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lock it in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Another good Nam'ing. Looks to start Saturday evening, so the timing should be good. My goodness . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sucks I work Sat sun Monday in knoxville might get stuck there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The trend from 12z to 18z at 500mb is almost as much as 6z to 12z. It keeps getting sharper and deeper. The trends aren’t done yet. Also of note this would be a wet snow. Some locations don’t get below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Highly recommend looking at the accumulation map on Tropical Tidbits for the 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Can someone post the 12z Euro clown for documentation purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area. Has 8" for Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area. Has 8" for Chattanooga. 3km not as generous, but definitely a strong signal. It’s more useful short term anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 MRX seems skeptical (and rightfully so after the flip flopping) on the Sat night/Sun morning storm. Here’s the portion of you their disco that pertains to this storm: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 400 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)... Key Messages: 1. Snow chances have increased Sat night and Sun morning, but confidence remains very low with how this system will evolve. 2. Dry with near to slightly below normal temps Sun afternoon warming above normal Mon. 3. Active weather next week with difficult to time precip chances, but milder temps early in the week cool below normal mid/late week. Discussion: Friday Night and Saturday... Fast, progressive upper level flow will remain across the TN Valley during this time at the base of broad troughing covering much of the northern tier of the country. Weak surface high pressure quickly moving across the Midwest and OH Valley will provide dry conditions and temps just below normal. Lows Fri night will dip into the 25-30 degree range with highs Sat in the upper 40`s to near 50. Saturday Night and Sunday... Well, this period has once again become more interesting as the 12Z NAM and deterministic ECMWF have trended toward the deterministic GFS and GEFS ensemble means in phasing northern and southern stream energy which gives the possibility of accumulating snow Sat night into Sun morning. However, the ECMWF ensemble mean, deterministic CMC, and CMC ensemble means still keep this energy separate leading to a drier forecast. Regarding the synoptic details, a fast moving northern stream mid/upper shortwave will progress across the Midwest states Sat night while a southern stream shortwave moves along the Gulf coast states with a surface response near the FL Panhandle. The N stream shortwave further deepens the broader longwave trough and sends a piece of true arctic air across the Midwest and Great Lakes in its wake, but the different solutions among the guidance stem from whether or not the N and S stream shortwaves can phase before all of the energy moves to our E. Consensus is for 850 mb temps to be -3 to -4 deg C Sat night with surface temps several degrees above freezing early in the night as the right entrance region of a 130- 140 kt H3 jet associated with the northern shortwave induces strengthening warm, moist advection and isentropic lift. The strength and duration of moisture advection and overall forcing will be determined by whether or not the features actually phase, so stayed with NBM slight chance PoPs Sat night/Sun morning, but blended WPC QPF with the GFS/ECMWF QPF to take into account some of the higher QPF probabilities. In terms of snowfall amounts, the aforementioned surface temps above freezing at the onset will lead to a rain/snow mix, but expect a quick transition to snow by late evening as the lower levels cool, possibly aided by dynamic cooling and wet bulbing. The temp profile and WPC/GFS/ECMWF blended QPF yields 0.5 to 2 inches of snow, which is a reasonable starting point based on the flip flopping guidance. This system will quickly exit NE Sun afternoon with dry conditions and highs only in the low/mid 40`s behind the associated cold front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area. Has 8" for Chattanooga. Wonder if Jeff is ready? Chattanooga and an early afternoon start time. This thing already has two strikes against it down that way..... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Tropical counts mixing and sometimes very cold rain as snow accumulation I've noticed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Tropical counts mixing and sometimes very cold rain as snow accumulation I've noticed. If you bring Chattanooga snow, you will be a legend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lol the forecast mentions nothing yet. Hate to be ones trying to forecast this coming weekend and week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Can't see the frozen maps yet, but the RGEM sure looks like it could be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Lol the forecast mentions nothing yet. Hate to be ones trying to forecast this coming weekend and week. Well in fairness this might be just an eastern half of TN event, so if I were them I’d wait a cycle or two and casually mention it as a possibility this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Not sure why, but the TT site just flat hammers a larger area. Has 8" for Chattanooga. TT's Positive Snow Depth Change always looks more realistic to me: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Can't see the frozen maps yet, but the RGEM sure looks like it could be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'm starting to get excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 As usual, surface temps are marginal for the eastern valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: As usual, surface temps are marginal for the eastern valley. Lock it in then...marginal temps is a sure sign something is looming in the great valley..lol jk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 As usual, surface temps are marginal for the eastern valley.This usually isn’t something we would normally say on here but marginal right now is ok considering one of the themes this winter has been high temperatures projected too high several times this year. Especially the last couple of weeks. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'll make this note as we all hope for the best. Models have performed poorly with northern stream events this year with too much snow, and have underperformed on southern stream events as a rule. So we can hopefully count on that again. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sorry about the last one, that was 12z GEFS by mistake. Here are 18z members: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z Euro coming in now. I think it is going to be pretty similar to 12z, maybe a smidge (and I mean little smidge) flatter with the energy, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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