burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Front end thumps usually work out here. I’ll add that by the time we have questionable 850mb temps late tomorrow evening it doesn’t matter Bc the precip has moved out. This looks like a quick hitting dump that’ll drop 3-5 inches across the upstate from 3pm-7pm Saturday. I don’t see any mixing coming in to the picture until rates slack off and the dry slot moves in around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Also folks , once again, it will snow during the overnight hours without any sun angle... also the ground temps are fairly cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Every model at 6z is big improvement from 0z cycle. Great trends The gfs looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I feel good about at least 5 inches here after pouring over the data. Let the record show the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime was only 5.75 inches from the January 2011 storm. what could go wrong? Only thing I see at this point is rates not materializing like depicted which we need to cool the boundary layer tomorrow afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The storm seems to have speed up by almost 6 hours since yesterday afternoon. Snow should be wrapping up by around 8 am at the latest in the triad (earlier if we flip to rain). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I feel good about at least 5 inches here after pouring over the data. Let the record show the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime was only 5.75 inches from the January 2011 storm. what could go wrong? Only thing I see at this point is rates not materializing like depicted which we need to cool the boundary layer tomorrow afternoon. I don't know about that to be honest. These 10:1 maps can't be trusted. Maybe 1-2 inches if the stars align. But that's just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I don't know about that to be honest. These 10:1 maps can't be trusted. Maybe 1-2 inches if the stars align. But that's just my opinion. I’m not basing my thoughts off clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, burrel2 said: I’m not basing my thoughts off clown maps. Time will tell. I feel good about seeing something. Just not sure on amounts yet. GSP still says rain along and south of 85 in their latest discussion but did state small changes could lead to a bigger storm. 6Z has those changes so we'll see where it trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I was wondering when you would show up. Better wake up Oconee too. Seems like our snow systems always come out of nowhere like this. Ive been watching this one for 3 days. Love the set up and potential. Unreal after the overnight models...hard to find a bad run anywhere...thats crazy the agreement on the 85 snow line! Ill be thrilled to get a covered ground tbh! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I would gladly take 4-6 and cash out for the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: My local forecast shows rain and 35 on Saturday night rising into the mid 50’s on Sunday. Do I believe the weather models or the National Weather Service? Should be a fun ride for Upstate SC late this weekend either way. “Hey, it’s gonna snow bigly this weekend, guys!” Meanwhile, at your regional NWS office... 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Morning fellas. Not gonna lie was nervous to wake up and check the overnight stuff. Was fearing a disaster with some weak pos on euro or 6z trending the wrong way. Pleasant surprise to see models converging on a nice setup for a good portion of the forum rather than just extreme nw areas. Here’s to a good day of model runs and winter storm watches with the afternoon package! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From RAH’s forecast discussion this morning: Quote The big question remains if the precipitation will remain all liquid or if some wintry precip will mix in toward daybreak Sunday. Lows are expected to bottom out in the 32-36 degree range Saturday night, which is cold enough for some snow, especially across the northern and western Piedmont. Will keep mention of rain/snow mix in the forecast, though as only a dusting to less than an inch of accumulation would occur, no significant impacts are expected at this time. As much as it hurts down deep, I’ll defer to their good judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It’s nice to see the trends this morning. I just might squeeze out enough to make a snowball 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waitingfor88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GSP forecast discussion this am mentions “warm nose” three times... So skim past that all three times and focus on the part that mentions “possible accums even in the upstate” keep hope alive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Waitingfor88 said: GSP forecast discussion this am mentions “warm nose” three times... So skim past that all three times and focus on the part that mentions “possible accums even in the upstate” keep hope alive! I m curious what the wording will be after they digest the full 06 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 6Z runs give me hope for a decent storm but the RDPS and especially the HRRR look wonky and have quite a bit less. I know the HRRR isn't that great but it looks completely different than the NAM or Euro. Hopefully it's just out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I would gladly take 4-6 and cash out for the winter Winter may just be getting started per the euro ensembles: Gonna be a fun 10 day stretch, maybe longer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Winter may just be getting started per the euro ensembles: Gonna be a fun 10 day stretch, maybe longer Oh I meant 4-6 ft 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Here’s some gsp goodness 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Here’s the added gfs with the nam for gsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, HKY1894 said: Every model at 6z is big improvement from 0z cycle. Great trends The gfs looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I can totally understand RAH's hesitancy. Even the 6z NAM never gets temps below freezing. If the NAM plays out as depicted, we certainly would get a few inches accumulation, but I could also easily see a relatively quick changeover to rain or flipping back and forth depending on rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WGHP’s call map had only a dusting to 1” in the mountains with absolutely nothing in the lower elevations. Is it time to pass on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: I feel good about at least 5 inches here after pouring over the data. Let the record show the biggest snowstorm of my lifetime was only 5.75 inches from the January 2011 storm. what could go wrong? Only thing I see at this point is rates not materializing like depicted which we need to cool the boundary layer tomorrow afternoon. That would be amazing for you folks in the Clemson area. Clemson/Anderson folks deserve a "win". Good luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The early January 2017 bust still looms large in everyone’s minds. Me and some met buddies who were gearing up for 6-12 to close out our last semester got a night of cold rain, and basically every office/media org had to put out some overwrought mea culpa on what they got wrong. My point is that bust still ignites a pretty visceral reaction and media/NWS will likely be ultra conservative in any setup that mirrors it. I mean, I don’t remember how this forum was but I can tell you the meteorology group chat I was in was absolutely melting down. So that event I believe still colors and frames a lot of expectations around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: WGHP’s call map had only a dusting to 1” in the mountains with absolutely nothing in the lower elevations. Is it time to pass on this one? Nah, really no need for them to change anything until this afternoon session Jmo that’s 24-30 hrs plenty of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @BIG FROSTY ALERT! You got GFS’d! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: The early January 2017 bust still looms large in everyone’s minds. Me and some met buddies who were gearing up for 6-12 to close out our last semester got a night of cold rain, and basically every office/media org had to put out some overwrought mea culpa on what they got wrong. My point is that bust still ignites a pretty visceral reaction and media/NWS will likely be ultra conservative in any setup that mirrors it. I mean, I don’t remember how this forum was but I can tell you the meteorology group chat I was in was absolutely melting down. So that event I believe still colors and frames a lot of expectations around here. My buddy got Married that Saturday AM in Mooresville but if I remember correct the HRRR starting firing warning shots about being warmer even right along 85 and especially points south around Lunch on Friday I wish I still had the screenshots from that one. We ended up between like 5-6” I believe but we’re forecasted 8-12” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm not well versed on jet streaks, but I think this is a good look for the piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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