Jessy89 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wonder when GSP rolls out a warning for western NC?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 For whatever reason the 700mbar frontogenesis band, that is responsible for delivering our precip out ahead of the heaviest rates with the 850mbar frontogenesis in the evening, was a lot weaker and slower that run. This is it and it's precip response from the good 06z run this morning valid 2pm tomorrow: And this is the same timestamp on the latest run: As @burrel2 said this is the crucial part of the storm, not the warm nose. This earlier onset and more QPF ahead of the best forcing and rates would help cool the column and have us primed and ready to accumulate snow immediately once the best rates arrived in the evening. Without it the whole thing is screwed up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @wncsnow pretty bullish for you! The storm in early January that busted they had me in 4 to 6. I got .75. The last storm a week ago was saved with that warm front band but they still forecasted more than what fell. It sucks being under a winter storm warning and having bare ground the next afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Does GSP include sleet in their snow totals like they do in the text products? Cause specifically my forecast is for 2-4 inches of snow and sleet, and hell with that NAM look I could have 1-1.5 inches of sleet alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Even though the NWS hasn't lowered amounts yet, local Mets are starting to. Jason Boyer has, and Foothills weather network are about to as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Again though, it's kind of on an island with bringing the precip in that late. Most other modeling starts here sometime between 1-4. It holds back until like 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 @buckeyefan1 , any chance you can show a comparison of the 18z/0z ICON Snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z RGEM still looks good... but it has a cold bias I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Icon and rgem hold steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 RGEM isn't that good here, misses us with the heaviest front end precip. Not many models are showing legit warning criteria except for higher elevations north of 40 and in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 0z RGEM still looks good... but it has a cold bias I believe...I believe it was showing a major ice storm for I-40 corridor less than 12 hours out with last system and we had 34 and rain all day. That left a pretty bad taste in my mouth for the RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM isn't that good here, misses us with the heaviest front end precip. Not many models are showing legit warning criteria except for higher elevations north of 40 and in VA Puts 1-1.5" in my back yard. I would take it here given how this winter is. I'm in Hoscton, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not a fan of the RGEM either. It may have its strengths, but the fine lines of wintry precip isn't one of them. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The footprint of snow lines up pretty well when comparing the NAM and RGEM. The Nam is more robost with the snow totals from N.NC through VA. One big difference is the RGEM is showing heavier totals in the upstate. That heavier totals in the upstate also line up with the greater accumulations that were show on the RAP model earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, ST21 said: Puts 1-1.5" in my back yard. I would take it here given how this winter is. I'm in Hoscton, GA GSP with the sweet spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snow dog said: GSP with the sweet spot! It looks like our Atlanta local is going with the NAM model. Theirs looks like it has the warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Haha... this thread needs a little of what the WRF-ARW2 is jacked up on! Probably doesn’t belong here at this point, but hey it made me laugh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Gimme some of that!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 TBH give me 3 inches with this storm and I would be happy. And be done with winter. After this storm we don't get something with this setup coming up over the next week or two we are running out of chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Haha... this thread needs a little of what the WRF-ARW2 is jacked up on! Probably doesn’t belong here at this point, but hey it made me laugh. That was from lunchtime run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Help me GFS kenobi. You're our only hope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Help me GFS kenobi. You're our only hope. Better run for Catawba and Alexander counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Help me GFS kenobi. You're our only hope. If we can avoid the Warm Nose this could happen for Hickory west. We shall see so glad to be moving to Buffalo later this Month for a new Job will be beat winter down here lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, wxduncan said: If we can avoid the Warm Nose this could happen for Hickory west. We shall see so glad to be moving to Buffalo later this Month for a new Job will be beat winter down here lol. Wow! That will be a big change, in so many ways: Valdese, NC, to Buffalo, NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, calculus1 said: Wow! That will be a big change, in so many ways: Valdese, NC, to Buffalo, NY. Yeah it will be but I look at it this way better pay/job. And better Winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: Yeah it will be but I look at it this way better pay/job. And better Winters Nothing wrong with following your career goals and cashing in on snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Canadian is super dry for western and even Northern areas in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 03z rap holds firm and smokes the upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now