burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm a little confused at this run too. I have .7 qpf and only 2.5 snow and 850s and 925s are good here too. 750mb warm nose gets you for the second half. If the nam is to be believed all the cashing in has to be done on the front end, mountains included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hi Res Nam has me going to rain. The low in TN Is still wreaking havoc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam has me going to rain. The low in TN Is still wreaking havoc It's a Miller B setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Great post! Puts in perspective that wet bulb can potentially be huge for western folks in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Hr 28-33 redeemed itself up here anyway. @BornAgain13 you are literally either puking fatties or on the rain/snow line. Yeah man right on the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hi Res snow- not compete yet for northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 No doubt , the NAM'S are a central/northern VA Snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 meh.. i'm crossing fingers for next week. i need a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: It's a Miller B setup. Miller A/B hybrid I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 As for the mountains of NC. Going to Maggie Valley I think I’ll see snow after 6pm maybe lasting through 10 or 11pm but then mixing issues sleet even freezing rain. But then I noticed the low In Tennessee bringing a round two of snow 2am to 6-7am so really the mountains see two thumps. The upstate and ne Georgia a window of opportunity maybe 7pm to midnight then sleet and rain. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: No doubt , the NAM'S are a central/northern VA Snowstorm Looking at qpf 12k demolishes me with .94 qpf and 9.8” on Kuchera. Has you around .90 but 3-5” range down that way. I really think rates will overcome some of this but it may not be and very well most likely won’t be 10:1 down that way. Prolly 6:1/8:1. Tomorrow’s high temps are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM has been verifying rather warm lately.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 That warm nose is so freaking strong... Every other model needs vast improvements if it can't see a warm nose that strong and the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Still every other model looks good for western NC besides the NAM. Not to worried unless they trend toward the NAM. Rather have all the other short range plus euro etc in my corner then one model which is NAM. Don't give up and cliff dive.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm a little confused at this run too. I have .7 qpf and only 2.5 snow and 850s and 925s are good here too. Our warm nose has been around 700MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, wxduncan said: Still every other model looks good for western NC besides the NAM. Not to worried unless they trend toward the NAM. Rather have all the other short range plus euro etc in my corner then one model which is NAM. Don't give up and cliff dive.... Honestly big picture wise the NAM trended towards the other models that run. But it's much later timing of the front end of the precip and the raging warm nose it's showing are causing the big differences. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looking over 3k/12k other thing that stands out to me is even though the s/w is a weaker initially the dynamics are def there and the storm in general is just slightly delayed compared to 18z hence the precip shield expansion taking a little longer to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxduncan said: Still every other model looks good for western NC besides the NAM. Not to worried unless they trend toward the NAM. Rather have all the other short range plus euro etc in my corner then one model which is NAM. Don't give up and cliff dive.... Here’s the real question..... if the tables were turned and EURO/RAP/HRR/ICON ect ect were all showing warm nose but NAM was alone and showing your dream snow scenario would the forum hug it? If not why bother worrying in this current scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Looking over 3k/12k other thing that stands out to me is even though the s/w is a weaker initially the dynamics are def there and the storm in general is just slightly delayed compared to 18z hence the precip shield expansion taking a little longer to get going. Like the last storm man , I believe you are in a great spot. I'm literally on the edge of something extremely minor and something much bigger... usually the minor wins unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: Here’s the real question..... if the tables were turned and EURO/RAP/HRR/ICON ect ect were all showing warm nose but NAM was alone and showing your dream snow scenario would the forum hug it? If not why bother worrying in this current scenario That Is a great thought, although the NAM is usually real good at "sniffing with a warm nose." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Here’s the real question..... if the tables were turned and EURO/RAP/HRR/ICON ect ect were all showing warm nose but NAM was alone and showing your dream snow scenario would the forum hug it? If not why bother worrying in this current scenario Then that's a different story yeah I would be worried because that's 4 plus models versus 1 model. So to me changes nothing sure NAM is good at showing the Warm Nose but no reason to cliff dive I could care less if I get Snow or not been like this for years. God speed not worried at all. Stating my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If the NAM has a warm nose I certainly wouldn’t discredit it. NAM is normally really good in its range. Maybe take a blend of NAM and hrrrrr . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m not too worried about the warm nose. I care more about the intensity of the front end precip out ahead of the warm nose and the NAM isn’t very impressive in that regard. If we get heavy front end precip we can get accumulations east of the mountains... if we don’t, then we won’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Next possible event should be labeled as __-__ more than likely snowless event letdown part 37! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hi Res snow- not compete yet for northern areas I’d say this is closer to reality especially for Piedmont and foothills. We’ll be lucky to see another dusting and if we do it’ll be gone within a few hours. After the way things have gone all winter I just can’t get excited for any model run. Depressing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like this may be a severe event for the OBX. Things are trending stormy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: @wncsnow pretty bullish for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Maybe GSP see something different or just is not buying the nam those totals are not bad 3-4 for my area. Can't wait to read there discussion late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now