jjwxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Are we really losing another one? Lol Congrats MA/NE. Common theme this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Well im almost ready to buy in! Def have been great for getting the higher rates and more precip than whats been modeled for the last couple of months here. I think that will benefit us in NW SC for once. Early onset with precip and a quick xhange over looks very likely to me. Yea and even the dumpster fire nam shows that our thermal profiles are fine even with that solution to score a front end thump. The problem with the nam is there’s no appreciable precip with the initial waa. Have to hope that’s wrong.(it’s on an island with that idea for now). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Yeah, seems very severe. The drastic swings need to be ignored sure over a 3suite constant if it goes 25 miles or so each time sure...... but 100 miles NW in one swing.... nah I wouldn’t buy that even if it swung in my favor. Everyone RELAX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Another thing with the latest NAM was it was super slow with the precip. 3-6 hours or so slower than the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Cold rain on this Dumpster Fire??? (Asking for a Friend) & you don't say, that NW trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 FWIW, the 18z hrrr looks good for the upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @Disc or anyone for that matter. I would love to get a sounding when the fgen at 700 is over southern VA. That band will make up for borderline 850s mark my words. Don’t give up yet @BornAgain13 Nam notorious for doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Huge impact in the low in the TN valley getting amped up. 06z was our peak run for snow in NGA and the Western Carolinas and the QPF looked like this: Now it's this: This trend keeps up its turning into a true Miller B Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Huge impact in the low in the TN valley getting amped up. 06z was our peak run for snow in NGA and the Western Carolinas and the QPF looked like this: Now it's this: This trend keeps up its turning into a true Miller B Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE storm. Yep, that is screwing up everything and the hi res models are trending stronger and stronger with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Tennessee can’t keep a coach. Let’s hope they can’t keep a low. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 And the RGEM says hold up a minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: And the RGEM says hold up a minute! Looks like the Euro, lighter precip, more in the TN valley yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Looks like the Euro, lighter precip, more in the TN valley yet again Actually trended a here further south and looked a little weaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The High over the NE built in a touch further south this run compared to 12z. Just small details at this point not really much more to go off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still a pretty big difference between RGEM and 12km NAM, here's hr 36 and hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong! The ICON is a model A snow Weenie made in their moms basement apparentlY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, WXNewton said: I don't know much about the ICON, but that sucker has been rock stead on its output, it's either really right or really wrong! I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I still wouldn’t overthink the NAM for those who are going to pound an adult drink back in frustration. It has a known problem with overdoing convective processes, specifically 3k. Tends to have too much of a convective nature to it, which obv could affect temp profiles, etc (latent heat release from convective elements etc..) I wouldn’t fully discount it but more or less use it as a tool. Seems to be the most amped model at this juncture as well. Icon has been absolutely rock solid and to my knowledge (someone can correct me if I’m wrong) but has verification scores that would be acceptable to the likes of GFS and CMC I always like NAM thermals in CAD , but it’s about worthless imo with anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS trending NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS trending NW The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did? Snow THREAT? On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows. We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either. 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, jburns said: The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did? Snow THREAT? On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows. We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either. I will take the blame lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I will take the blame lol No more thread starting for you! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: No more thread starting for you! Lol Hey now lets wait and see what happens first. I thought changing my profile pic may change mojo but alas.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 DC stole our snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, jburns said: The main problem here is you. Why did you title the thread the way you did? Snow THREAT? On Christmas Eve everyone says Santa is coming tonight. Sure enough he shows. We don’t say there is a Santa Threat. If we did the old SOB wouldn’t show up either. Now that is funny . Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Scrolling back in time there have been many threads started with the word threat or threats in them so I'm not the lone ranger, just saying! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pack it up. We are running out of time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Scrolling back in time there have been many threads started with the word threat or threats in them so I'm not the lone ranger, just saying! I will start the next thread and it will be an epic one :+) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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