NEGa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 hours ago, SnowDawg said: 3km NAM came back in more aggressive with the warm nose than it did at 06z. Ton of QPF went to sleet that run. Again pretty high up there cause the 850s and 925s are well below freezing til bulk of the precip is basically gone. That doesn’t surprise for habersham. It seems to happen in the majority of set ups like this. Rabun is usually a bit luckier being a bit farther north and having some higher elevation. I am at a decent elevation here. It nothing like clayton lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro very reminiscent of last month's awful storm. Extremely disorganized into almost two separate pieces with a big dry slot between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, SnowDawg said: Euro very reminiscent of last month's awful storm. Extremely disorganized into almost two separate pieces with a big dry slot between. That's a good point actually, it does look similar for western NC especially 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Lesser amounts but way wider spreadSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, NEGa said: That doesn’t surprise for habersham. It seems to happen in the majority of set ups like this. Rabun is usually a bit luckier being a bit farther north and having some higher elevation. I am at a decent elevation here. It nothing like clayton lol My gut tells me the NAM may be a bit too aggressive with the warm nose right now, but needless to say we really need that front end punch to be aggressive. With high rates, picking up just an extra hour or two over the NAM'S transition time could be significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, ozmaea said: what city are you in bornagain Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Dry Fork , NW of Danville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Can someone explain why pivitol shows mixing up here on the EURO but Weatherbell stays all snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 38 minutes ago, burrel2 said: That’s Kuchera from the 21z rap. Did you cheat us by cutting out the advert for how to lower our blood pressure quickly, or was the map a means to accomplish the same thing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Can someone explain why pivitol shows mixing up here on the EURO but Weatherbell stays all snow??Pivitol is lesser res...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: My gut tells me the NAM may be a bit too aggressive with the warm nose right now, but needless to say we really need that front end punch to be aggressive. With high rates, picking up just an extra hour or two over the NAM'S transition time could be significant. Never, ever, ever doubt a warm nose on the NAM. It may not be correct this time, but that model was made for sniffing them out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GSP has not update their show term discussion since the AM (3:30) shift. I assume that should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Never, ever, ever doubt a warm nose on the NAM. It may not be correct this time, but that model was made for sniffing them out I guess the NAM has gone back to giving my too much QPF, it has me over 1 inch for this system while the Euro has .25 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I expect RAH will issue WWA for their NW counties tomorrow morning. This pretty much looks to be a non-event in regards to impacts in the Triad. But A couple of hours of snow will be nice to see if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 so since ive only been in this region for a little over 4 years, ill ask the danville area folks.....when when nws blacksburg refers to miller a's as the biggest winter weather producers in this area, how big are they talking? i mean i know it wont be dec 2018, which was a nice treat, but how big do storms get in this region ie. danville biggest one day snow total. im very curious (sorry for slightly off topic but the morning discussion mentioned this so i was musing on it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: GSP has not update their show term discussion since the AM (3:30) shift. I assume that should be out soon. 3:15 AM for RAH and 4:30 AM for RNK, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: 3:15 AM for RAH and 4:30 AM for RNK, too. Long lead for short term to be quiet. Lots a data since the overnights runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, rowjimmy73 said: so since ive only been in this region for a little over 4 years, ill ask the danville area folks.....when when nws blacksburg refers to miller a's as the biggest winter weather producers in this area, how big are they talking? i mean i know it wont be dec 2018, which was a nice treat, but how big do storms get in this region ie. danville biggest one day snow total. im very curious (sorry for slightly off topic but the morning discussion mentioned this so i was musing on it) 1 of Danville biggest was December 2018. The city got 15" , where I live NW of there got 17" or so.... Miller A's usually produce 4-8" or 6-10" around these parts... sometimes their is mixing involved... now for the storm coming up, I dont believe Danville or up my way will reach that much, maybe 2-4" is a good guess from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 1 of Danville biggest was December 2018. The city got 15" , where I live NW of there got 17" or so.... Miller A's usually produce 4-8" or 6-10" around these parts... sometimes their is mixing involved... now for the storm coming up, I dont believe Danville or up my way will reach that much, maybe 2-4" is a good guess from me. Also Winter Storm Warning criteria for Danville is 4". Will be interested to see the trends the next 12+ hours to see if we reach that criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 1 of Danville biggest was December 2018. The city got 15" , where I live NW of there got 17" or so.... Miller A's usually produce 4-8" or 6-10" around these parts... sometimes their is mixing involved... now for the storm coming up, I dont believe Danville or up my way will reach that much, maybe 2-4" is a good guess from me. i'll continuely take the inch or 2 at a time and call it a winter. considering our yearly average in these parts, its a win. 2018 was the best snow ive experienced in years, such a quiet day, my daughters bday and just ripping snow. only other thing i've seen greater was pd2 and feb 83 in nj. Real live thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Having just driven from GSO to Cincy, let me instill some cold, hard ground truths about the snow coverage maps that were posted yesterday. They're wrong.....bigly. There is barely a drop of snow on the ground north of Beckley, WV. A stray shady spot, thats it. Nobody is going to benefit from ground cover keeping temps down, period. Now to offer some hope for cold, it's already colder than a witches titty here. Wind is howling all through the mountains of WV and VA, feels like low 20s here in Cincy. Its coming folks. You organize the QPF while I'm gone this week. I'm bringing a truckload of cold back with me on Friday. In the meantime, keep your sanity about tomorrow night. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Also Winter Storm Warning criteria for Danville is 4". Will be interested to see the trends the next 12+ hours to see if we reach that criteria I’m not sure anyone East of an imaginary line of Asheville(I-40)- Winston/GSO (I-40)- Hwy220 up to ROA gets more than D-2” event at most but that’s Jmo. West Jefferson NC - Wythville VA will be winner if I’m making Predictions .....(5-8”) for someone in that Area but no one will score more than that imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Having just driven from GSO to Cincy, let me instill some cold, hard ground truths about the snow coverage maps that were posted yesterday. They're wrong.....bigly. There is barely a drop of snow on the ground north of Beckley, WV. A stray shady spot, thats it. Nobody is going to benefit from ground cover keeping temps down, period. Now to offer some hope for cold, it's already colder than a witches titty here. Wind is howling all through the mountains of WV and VA, feels like low 20s here in Cincy. Its coming folks. You organize the QPF while I'm gone this week. I'm bringing a truckload of cold back with me on Friday. In the meantime, keep your sanity about tomorrow night. According to the Euro , you won't be bringing back no cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: According to the Euro , you won't be bringing back no cold I hear ya, but I'm not buying it. No strong SER in place, a very strong arctic core pushing south where high temps in Cincy will be 11° on Friday with lows of zero?? C'mon, when the HP is that strong we always feel it in the Carolinas. And this isnt a one and done, this is a week long, or more, event as forecasted up here. Something isnt adding up down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Disc said: Now show the real expected (1/10 chance) that’s what I’m hanging my hat on. I’m all in for this one. Dynamics ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Disc said: I'll take thagt inch in kdan. just the right kinda snow, easy on the eyes and melt away without help lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Disc said: Bullish for mountain areas. How much did you factor in the latest Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Can’t wait to see a region wide expected snowfall map. Surely the CWFA borders won’t be obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Bullish for mountain areas. How much did you factor in the latest Euro? I do not know their whole thinking. Their AFD will be out soon. I am off the forecast desk today and only re-posting what those in the office came up with. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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