BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 One thing I've noticed in NAM extracted data is a lot of locations are getting down to 32. Little things like that can change the game with this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: One thing I've noticed in NAM extracted data is a lot of locations are getting down to 32. Little things like that can change the game with this thing. Weirdly too, the 3K had slightly higher totals in areas where the 12k cut. I can’t recall too many times where I’ve seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: One thing I've noticed in NAM extracted data is a lot of locations are getting down to 32. Little things like that can change the game with this thing. Would that really matter though if there’s a warm nose present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: One thing I've noticed in NAM extracted data is a lot of locations are getting down to 32. Little things like that can change the game with this thing. The O6 NAM at 42 has Me around 31.7 with a slight WN from 900-950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Would that really matter though if there’s a warm nose present? Depends on how deep the warm nose is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: NWS in Atlanta aint impressed with no Models or ensembles..... They just issued a statement 1, 1.5 inches in the NE Mountains..... Nada anywhere else basically CJ on WYFF4 is also unenthusiastic about the event.....which brings hope? This is a Tough One To Call but as I say, heart break is for country music / I am ALL IN - come on upstate of SC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Buckley on Twitter just shared the WPC one and it’s got basically Nothing for anyone East of 321 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM 12 KM, NAM 3KM and 12z RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just a cautionary word to the wise here; don't bet on the short range GFS over the NAM just because it's prettier. Temper expectations outside of elevation. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Sadly, this is looking more like a fairly marginal event for most of us in this thread with maybe a couple of exceptions. Anyone swallowing verbatim (or even half of) what the models are serving up is going to be disappointed on Sunday. I hate to sound like Wildremann, but I’m going with what the professionals are forecasting. When is the last time this board went into storm mode for a winter event that effected the southeastern subforum? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, Disc said: It drives a sfc LP to Detroit. That, and it's the long range HRRR. It will begin to become useful this time tomorrow. That's always been my issue with the HRRR...by that time, the storm is right on top of you. It's really like a model you would use in the summer AM to help predict aftn thunderstorms (not sure how good it is with that) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, Disc said: @Buddy1987 I think you're in a fantastic spot for this. The NAM was just about perfect. We get a 700mb FGEN band pivoting over us for hours. It would be a mauling as pictured. The lift out of this alone would put crazy hourly rates down. Meatball aggregates just covering everything. You love to see this closer to game time. The fine details of the short range models picking up on enhanced banding structures. For me man these are the best setups for RNK office because they spring up and just demolish more often than not. Temps are borderline albeit I’m assuming wet bulb will benefit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 SREF plumes for Hickory are a little over 2". I expect an advisory for 1-2 here with maybe 1/2" of sleet and honestly that would be great if we could pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Buckley on Twitter just shared the WPC one and it’s got basically Nothing for anyone East of 321 lmao Just pulled this off the WPC page. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Kind of what I alluded to last night where I thought the storm still had the ability to amp and or phase some more. Better potential for BOOM factor but also could take some out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Kind of what I alluded to last night where I thought the storm still had the ability to amp and or phase some more. Better potential for BOOM factor but also could take some out of the game. Yeah thats the only down side to the BOOM. , is it might be better up this way but not good for most of the forum... maybe their can be a middle ground for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah thats the only down side to the BOOM. , is it might be better up this way but not good for most of the forum... maybe their can be a middle ground for everyone If the NAM's temp profiles are right, could be a raging sleet storm for many, even with some additional amplification (probably too cold but still) another issue with a more amplified storm in addition to WAA, is a dry slot south of the axis of heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 It would be typical for it to turn into a rain event for NC and a big snow in Central VA up to the NYC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS is more amped too but front end thump helps. We all know where this is going 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: GFS is more amped too but front end thump helps. We all know where this is going Looked like a great run to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: GFS is more amped too but front end thump helps. We all know where this is going It’s so uniform with its precip output. It is nice to have short range models that have the ability to sniff out deform band etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Looked like a great run to me It was because it has a lot of moisture at the front end. The low in the TN Valley screws up thermals towards the end in mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z trend is to cut totals on eastern edge and move heaviest accumulations right up the escarpment from NE GA into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, griteater said: That's always been my issue with the HRRR...by that time, the storm is right on top of you. It's really like a model you would use in the summer AM to help predict aftn thunderstorms (not sure how good it is with that) I generally use it in the summertime. It's good at picking up terrain induced afternoon thunderstorms, at least around here. And it's usually fairly spot on for initiation times. It also does okay with the finer details of smaller mesoscale components in a snow storm, but 6 hours out lead time, not sure who that benefits. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It would be typical for it to turn into a rain event for NC and a big snow in Central VA up to the NYC. Certainly very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gives the SC upstate folks some love! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Fabulous Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 20 hours ago, mercurydime said: I'm going to have to make up my mind soon on whether to try and go to WNCW in Spindale Saturday afternoon for my airshift that night, or to cut it here in the studio. I don't want to be driving back up my road to the house early Sunday morning in this potential weather. My favorite radio station. Happy you guys got your transmitter problem fixed. Signal is still a bit sketchy in the Statesville NC area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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