Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @Buddy1987 I think you're in a fantastic spot for this. The NAM was just about perfect. We get a 700mb FGEN band pivoting over us for hours. It would be a mauling as pictured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Warm nose is around the 750mb layer here but it isnt egregious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:20 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Expand Goodness jumped about 50-75 miles back NW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:24 PM, SnowDawg said: 3km NAM came back in more aggressive with the warm nose than it did at 06z. Ton of QPF went to sleet that run. Again pretty high up there cause the 850s and 925s are well below freezing til bulk of the precip is basically gone. Expand That warm nose as modeled on the nam is hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:30 PM, franklin NCwx said: That warm nose as modeled on the nam is hard to believe Expand Why do you say that? At least in central NC it’s pretty typical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @Buddy1987 @Disc could this be trending into a much more bigger snow than originally thought? Geez , the NAM smoked us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:30 PM, franklin NCwx said: That warm nose as modeled on the nam is hard to believe Expand Been thinking the same myself. Seems like an outlier, but I also know it's history with sniffing out warm noses and after that last bust in January it certainly shakes the confidence a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hopefully you get something BullCity, I am just on the other side of 85 so it’s definitely a no go. I m just looking for next weekend. If that doesn’t happen, I want 70-80 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:32 PM, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987 @Disc could this be trending into a much more bigger snow than originally thought? Geez , the NAM smoked us Expand For the I-81 corridor yes. However, more amped means more warmth. Still think you probably end up with a heavy front-end thump too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I just don’t see this being a big deal for most on this forum. Hopefully Bornagain can score here but this whole thing is iffy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:34 PM, Disc said: For the I-81 corridor yes. However, more amped means more warmth. Still think you probably end up with a heavy front-end thump too. Expand Taken verbatim , NAM would be 6-8" here and 8-12"+ for yall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 I don't think this will Amp up more than what it's showing now on the nam. Euro has been pretty consistent and GFS and their ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Classic sleet sounding. One reason I lean towards more of a moderate impact event is a trend towards colder in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @Disc will Winter Storm Watches be issued this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:32 PM, Dunkman said: Why do you say that? At least in central NC it’s pretty typical. Expand That's not how it works here in the southern mtns. When we have a warm nose it pokes it's head in from 850-750. 850 Temps are well below freezing and stay that way until the end. This is why we mostly always do rain or snow and very little freezing rain here. Speaking specifically for my area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:32 PM, SnowDawg said: Been thinking the same myself. Seems like an outlier, but I also know it's history with sniffing out warm noses and after that last bust in January it certainly shakes the confidence a bit. Expand But 850 Temps stay well below freezing for most of the event. You always see that erode quickly with a true warm nose 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:24 PM, BornAgain13 said: 12z NAM hammers central/southern VA Expand You’re in the sweet spot. Jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What gives me pause at the moment is the HRRR. My question is, what is it seeing or not seeing in comparison to the NAM? Why does there appear to be so little moisture with the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:40 PM, NorthHillsWx said: You’re in the sweet spot. Jealous. Expand I would wait until the GFS, Euro and UK to exclaim any sweet spots. NAM is the furthest North, even the Hi Res Nam is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What’s weird is that if you compare the position of the low at hr 42 from 06 to 12z, the low actually is about 25-50 miles further out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:41 PM, Tealsnowball said: What gives me pause at the moment is the HRRR. My question is, what is it seeing or not seeing in comparison to the NAM? Why does there appear to be so little moisture with the HRRR? Expand The HRRR could be right of course. That said it’s shown very little skill outside of 6-8 hours this winter from what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t worry too much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I think we have our goal posts on amperage. Nam being the most extreme possibility and hrrr being the most suppressed possibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:37 PM, BornAgain13 said: @Disc will Winter Storm Watches be issued this afternoon? Expand Check back this afternoon. Something will be hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:41 PM, Tealsnowball said: What gives me pause at the moment is the HRRR. My question is, what is it seeing or not seeing in comparison to the NAM? Why does there appear to be so little moisture with the HRRR? Expand Interesting thing on the HRRR is the places that actually get heavy enough precip, it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:41 PM, Tealsnowball said: What gives me pause at the moment is the HRRR. My question is, what is it seeing or not seeing in comparison to the NAM? Why does there appear to be so little moisture with the HRRR? Expand It drives a sfc LP to Detroit. That, and it's the long range HRRR. It will begin to become useful this time tomorrow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:46 PM, Disc said: It drives a sfc LP to Detroit. That, and it's the long range HRRR. It will begin to become useful this time tomorrow. Expand The HRRR at this range with the last event had me getting 7" of snow. I got 2.5". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NWS in Atlanta aint impressed with no Models or ensembles..... They just issued a statement 1, 1.5 inches in the NE Mountains..... Nada anywhere else basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:32 PM, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Hopefully you get something BullCity, I am just on the other side of 85 so it’s definitely a no go. I m just looking for next weekend. If that doesn’t happen, I want 70-80 degrees. Expand Thanks man. I honestly do think it's fairly similar to the last setup, just a warm nose in the back third of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Honestly, the place I like the most not in the mountains or VA with this is from roughly @burrel2's house to Charlotte. They might have the best timing with regards to temps and precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 On 2/5/2021 at 2:40 PM, NorthHillsWx said: You’re in the sweet spot. Jealous. Expand I personally think the sweet spot is just to my NW , closer to @Buddy1987 and @Disc. But we will see what the rest of the data shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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