eyewall Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Obviously there isn't much hope in Raleigh on this one, but also overall the BL temps suck once again (above freezing). This would be another quickly melting paste job at best. I would say you can probably halve or even quarter the GFS output there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: The early January 2017 bust still looms large in everyone’s minds. Me and some met buddies who were gearing up for 6-12 to close out our last semester got a night of cold rain, and basically every office/media org had to put out some overwrought mea culpa on what they got wrong. My point is that bust still ignites a pretty visceral reaction and media/NWS will likely be ultra conservative in any setup that mirrors it. I mean, I don’t remember how this forum was but I can tell you the meteorology group chat I was in was absolutely melting down. So that event I believe still colors and frames a lot of expectations around here. I remember that well. I was heading back to grad school in Winston-Salem but decided to stick around Chapel Hill because it looked like they'd be bullseyed. Whoops. Anyway fingers crossed, the trends from the 6z guidance seemed to put the northern ATL burbs (in which I unfortunately live now) in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Cloud cover moving in during the morning could be a huge help tomorrow. Noticed the Nam has thick cloud cover over WNC by 12Z. Temps for the most part max out area wide 38-42. Certainly a big difference from hitting 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The surface is problematic... but guys, we aren’t talking about an isothermal sounding from 800mb on down. In fact... we’ve got a down right frigid sounding thanks to a nice insitu wedge. That boundary layer isn’t deep enough and the snow that’s falling will be traveling through cold enough air that we will quickly hit 32 once rates pick up, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WBTV shows the Euro just in case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: Obviously there isn't much hope in Raleigh on this one, but also overall the BL temps suck once again (above freezing). This would be another quickly melting paste job at best. I would say you can probably halve or even quarter the GFS output there. Agreed. I've come to appreciate the "positive snow depth change" map on the NAM 3K to give me a more realistic understanding of actual accumulations. Looking at the numbers this morning a quick dusting to half and inch seems likely for most. That's better than it was last night. I've never been a fan of an event that can't get to freezing or below at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow, TSSN showing up on extracted data for Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I love these storms that just sort of pop up. When they do they trend better which is so much more fun than having to watch the 7 day storm fizzle lol it is certainly looking pretty good for a lot of us to see some snow this weekend. Obviously it would be better not to have a change over but a majority of the decent storms in this area usually do, esp with this type of set up. Even slashing the numbers by a half to a third still gives ne ga a couple of inches. I just hope this one can hang in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 TSSN also shows up for TDF which also falls to 32 during the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Why do the kuchera maps on Weatherbell show more than the kuchera on pivitol? Which is more accurate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The surface is problematic... but guys, we aren’t talking about an isothermal sounding from 800mb on down. In fact... we’ve got a down right frigid sounding thanks to a nice insitu wedge. That boundary layer isn’t deep enough and the snow that’s falling will be traveling through cold enough air that we will quickly hit 32 once rates pick up, imo. Im just 33 up the road but rate looks great as shown on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 51 minutes ago, NEGa said: I love these storms that just sort of pop up. When they do they trend better which is so much more fun than having to watch the 7 day storm fizzle lol it is certainly looking pretty good for a lot of us to see some snow this weekend. Obviously it would be better not to have a change over but a majority of the decent storms in this area usually do, esp with this type of set up. Even slashing the numbers by a half to a third still gives ne ga a couple of inches. I just hope this one can hang in there Yeah it never seems to fail ours pop up on short notice. I agree it looks good for most, although down my way I'm on the razors edge as usual. It will come down to the elevated warm layer here. Gfs and euro aren't as aggressive with it as the nam and new 12z hrrr isn't either. I do expect to see flakes fall at least for a while..even if its just a mix. Gainesville to gsp probably will be the sweet spot (outside mountains) I consider it all a bonus after the 4 to 5 inches I saw in gatlinburg earlier this week but unlike that snow, which was dry, this will be the big flake variety which would be nice. Believe it or not I even saw about a minute worth of sleet last evening around 630 while I was feeding the dog and it was 48 degrees. That is the second highest temp I've ever seen sleet before iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The surface is problematic... but guys, we aren’t talking about an isothermal sounding from 800mb on down. In fact... we’ve got a down right frigid sounding thanks to a nice insitu wedge. That boundary layer isn’t deep enough and the snow that’s falling will be traveling through cold enough air that we will quickly hit 32 once rates pick up, imo. Yep..if precip comes in just a couple of hours earlier too it will make a difference too...which has been the trend.. Although there is a fairly deep dry layer, some precip could reach the surface as early as 9 to 10 am up to 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nam at 33 not looking nearly as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Heavy snow at hr 39 after several hours of off and on/spotty snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Nam at 33 not looking nearly as good It looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: It looks good to me Looked a little slower and spottier at first but it’s definitely making it up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: It looks good to me outside of the mtns, you can cut those snow totals on maps down by at least 1/2 imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice front end thump on the NAM. .4" qpf in 6 hrs. Temps near freezing. Nice dynamics. A little further north with the banding than I feel comfortable with, but I'd like to lock it in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Warm nose made its return this run. Lets see what the rest of the 12z suite holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1km NAM from 1pm Sat to 5am Sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Lookout said: Yep..if precip comes in just a couple of hours earlier too it will make a difference too...which has been the trend.. Although there is a fairly deep dry layer, some precip could reach the surface as early as 9 to 10 am up to 85. Dude I've been wondering where you've been! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3km NAM came back in more aggressive with the warm nose than it did at 06z. Ton of QPF went to sleet that run. Again pretty high up there cause the 850s and 925s are well below freezing til bulk of the precip is basically gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Look, if you remember the last event, I think it's going to play out very similar except with more snow to the southwest. If you get under a good band, you've got a shot at a decent event. If you dont get under a band, you wont do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z NAM hammers central/southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Forecast Sounding Data for 36.02,-79.02 NAM 42 hour valid 06Z 07 Feb 2021 Station: 36.02,-79.02 Latitude: 36.02 Longitude: -79.02 Elevation: 119.83 Press Height Temp Dewpt Dir Spd M 1000.0 120 -9999.0 -9999.0 -9999 -9999 SFC 998.1 120 0.6 0.1 26 9 S 950.0 530 -1.0 -1.5 51 23 S 900.0 961 -2.3 -3.1 90 26 M 850.0 1414 -2.9 -3.4 125 37 S 800.0 1896 -0.2 -0.4 159 49 S 750.0 2416 0.8 0.6 191 61 M 700.0 2970 -0.0 -0.3 218 70 S 650.0 3561 -3.3 -3.6 234 70 S 600.0 4189 -7.3 -7.7 236 70 S 550.0 4862 -11.9 -12.3 232 77 M 500.0 5585 -16.5 -16.8 226 83 S 450.0 6367 -22.8 -23.7 226 91 M 400.0 7219 -28.9 -37.8 225 99 S 350.0 8164 -34.1 -55.6 224 103 M 300.0 9223 -42.9 -59.6 225 106 M 250.0 10428 -51.4 -65.7 230 110 M 200.0 11849 -58.0 -71.6 239 118 M 150.0 13657 -58.3 -80.9 244 121 M 100.0 16174 -63.9 -87.0 247 73 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 1km NAM from 1pm Sat to 5am Sun With backside action as it pulls through changing back to snow in the southern foothills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Heavy snow discussion from WPC ...Southern Appalachians to the Northeast... Days 2/3... The aforementioned trough moving east across the southern Plains Saturday will cross the far southern Appalachians Saturday night and turn northeast up the front side of the main trough and off the Northeastern Seaboard Sunday/Sunday night. Perhaps the 00Z guidance has brought about a reasonable consensus solution with a track over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday morning, with the surface low pressure tracking along the Carolina Coast with typical biases of a faster GFS solution and preference to the similar 00Z ECMWF/NAM/UKMET. Going forward, the parent wave will be in the CONUS raob network which will hopefully limit further track shifts. While track is in better agreement, there is still thermal and intensity uncertainty. Marginal thermal profiles over the southern/central Mid-Atlantic likely limits moderate snow rates to where low level frontogenesis and associated mesoscale bands set up. These are currently progged over southeast VA to the southern Delmarva Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong jet dynamics allow the low to quickly shift northeast off the Northeastern Seaboard Sunday into Sunday night with some northern stream trough supporting mainly light snow into interior New England Sunday afternoon/evening. Day 2.5 snow probabilities for 2 or more inches are low to moderate from the southern Appalachians all the way through central New England and moderate for New England on Day 3. The heaviest snow is likely to be in the southern Appalachians with low Day 2 probabilities for 4 or more inches over southwest VA and western NC and more low probabilities across New England on Day 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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