buckeyefan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 18z euro Euro def the most southeast of guidance. Has been very topsy turvy as of late. Having a hard time really entrusting in it regardless of what my backyard sees. All models have made a significant jump albeit CMC is leaning more toward the camp of the Euro. Interesting to see what ensembles show but we’re almost at the time of the op being the predominant choice to view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Euro def the most southeast of guidance. Has been very topsy turvy as of late. Having a hard time really entrusting in it regardless of what my backyard sees. All models have made a significant jump albeit CMC is leaning more toward the camp of the Euro. Interesting to see what ensembles show but we’re almost at the time of the op being the predominant choice to view. Yeah I like that narrow strip being over me , but I believe it will be more expansive to the NW ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Feel confident I will get a front end burst of snow here Saturday evening. Not confident it cools down enough to stick before changing over to sleet/rain. But I would take seeing moderate snow falling as a win on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I will say, front end thumps tend to over perform... imo. Lots of times model under estimate how much liquid falls out ahead of the waa. Wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a couple inches across a wide swath of our area before changing over. I remember around 2005 or 2006 I got 3 inches from a front end thump that looked like it would snow quickly changing to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: @BullCityWx is there anything stopping this storm from amping more vs being suppressed? I get the northern stream interaction but anything up top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: @BullCityWx is there anything stopping this storm from amping more vs being suppressed? I get the northern stream interaction but anything up top? I mean it is pretty progressive which I would think would limit the latitude it would gain. That being said, I think you’ll end up okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Just looks Flatter to me. Just doesn’t look full negative tilt not so much that it’s that much Further South. Jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 HRRR starting to get in range. What's up with the low in Tennessee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z EPS ensembles were interesting...10/51 give the SC midlands snowSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Let's see what the NAM has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Small shift south with 540 line at hr 42. Surface temps running several degrees warmer along 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pretty big shift south with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yea its just a bit too warm here at the surface then turns to sleet later on.. May be a mountain special. Only an inch or 2 max here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Big run up here from the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good chance of sig accumulations in the higher elevations. It's just going to be tough further east until that arctic air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wow said: Good chance of sig accumulations in the higher elevations. It's just going to be tough further east until that arctic air moves in. I agree. I think northern mountains from Yancey to Watauga will get 4 to 8 maybe more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well will see what mount airy can muster this time. Atleast we have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Tight gradient sheesh. 1 or 2 here and up to 8 inches 20 miles to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nam 3km Trended further south with frozen precip and 850s trended much further south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This could be so much more if just a couple of degrees colder at the surface. Same song; second verse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 3km is slightly better here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I just got NAME'D with 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3km trended a little better for foothills than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: 3km trended a little better for foothills than 18z. Yep. One more south trend and we will be in a good spot. I do think we get sleet here either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Yep. One more south trend and we will be in a good spot. I do think we get sleet here either way Yeah me too, I had a feeling the Nam might settle down a little bit. The 12km had more of a snow hole around area, not sure what that's about but it almost looked like the moisture shifted as the low moved from the gulf to Atlantic coast. That definitely hurt us that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow warm nose is killer. Soundings have me at or below freezing the whole event but after the few hour thump at the start it's all sleet and zr from there. Warm nose is way up there compared to normal though, like 750-775 mbar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, SnowDawg said: Wow warm nose is killer. Soundings have me at or below freezing the whole event but after the few hour thump at the start it's all sleet and zr from there. Warm nose is way up there compared to normal though, like 750-775 mbar. Yup its a super high warm nose. Strange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It really stinks that the new GFS model keeps stalling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now