The Iceman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Mt holly first call: Looks good, pretty bullish especially into s jersey. They don't seem to think the rain/snow line progresses past the shore at this time based on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 My buddy Glenn thinks it last into the afternoon on Sunday...5pm Fri on air totals for Sun: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mt holly first call: Looks good, pretty bullish especially into s jersey. They don't seem to think the rain/snow line progresses past the shore at this time based on that map. Really don't think that will pan out, way too far S.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Haven’t seen any snow maps for the RGEM or GFS. Guess that means they didn’t show much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Glenn's excited...he's twitching. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Really don't think that will pan out, way too far S.... You could be right. It will depend on where the FGEN band sets up for a time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Haven’t seen any snow maps for the RGEM or GFS. Guess that means they didn’t show much?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: The pink color should be changed to brown, that is mashed potatoes and gravy rates peeps are going to like that 3-4"/hr Btw, Herpderps has the crazy banding too. Not to this extreme but already 3-7" on the ground and more to come/still snowing heavily as the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Don't know if this has been said today, but Happy Weatherman's Day Mike! I second that @MGorse and @famartin 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not sure if this was noted, but Winter Storm Watches have been posted for a good chunk of the region: " Action Recommended Make preparations per the instructions Issued By Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware Description ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible. WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware. WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Borrowed from the Mid Atl sub, 18z euro is a nice hit and shows why even tho I think climo says I95 r/s line there is enough guidance still suggesting that central and southern NJ is very much still in the game: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Borrowed from the Mid Atl sub, 18z euro is a nice hit and shows why even tho I think climo says I95 r/s line there is enough guidance still suggesting that central and southern NJ is very much still in the game: Don’t forget Delaware too they have been screwed all year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Long range HRRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nam looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3k is inside the coast for a period but clearly shows the I95 r/s line. Quite a pasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m thinking a general 3-6” for the region with a stripe of up to 10” along or near I-95. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning? Its not done coming nw either. Icon is full on tuck right into Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Its not done coming nw either. Icon is full on tuck right into Delaware With i95 the r/s line. Models have shifted NW yet the fall line continues to be our #1 climo metric with this/these type systems. And fyi the icon is NOT over Delaware it never touches land or even that close tbh once it is N of NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 @Franklin0529 this is not tucked into DE. That is a perfect track I95 N and W. Not saying it can't continue to trend NW but I think I95 N and W is in a good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Franklin0529 this is not tucked into DE. That is a perfect track I95 N and W. Not saying it can't continue to trend NW but I think I95 N and W is in a good spot right now. My apologies. It looked worse earlier in the run. Either way I'm screwed here at the shore. Hard to get snow here. Even with the big storm I got 6" nyc got 17. Un real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Fox29 @ 10pm snow map. Seems like a safe bet at this point...glad the NJ folks are getting some accumulation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 First call wilmingto de(city) 10 inches my house - 11 inches oxford,pa - 7 inchrs pauls house - 8 incjes phl - 10 New hope, pa - 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 First call wilmingto de(city) 10 inches my house - 11 inches oxford,pa - 7 inchrs pauls house - 8 incjes phl - 10 New hope, pa - 13Being directly between Wilmington and Philly, I will take it! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Animal said: First call wilmingto de(city) 10 inches my house - 11 inches oxford,pa - 7 inchrs pauls house - 8 incjes phl - 10 New hope, pa - 13 Were you at Reese's? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Animal said: First call wilmingto de(city) 10 inches my house - 11 inches oxford,pa - 7 inchrs pauls house - 8 incjes phl - 10 New hope, pa - 13 Setting yourself up for another bust thread I see. Im j/k and I hope you're close to accurate, I would gladly take. Those numbers will be tough however with the system racing thru the region. GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Animal said: First call wilmingto de(city) 10 inches my house - 11 inches oxford,pa - 7 inchrs pauls house - 8 incjes phl - 10 New hope, pa - 13 My call along I-95 4-7” with isolated 8” amounts includes Northern De NE Md Delaware County Chester County Montgomery County Berks County PHL to Trenton to Allentown. Highest amounts fall line about 20 miles west and NW of I-95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: My call along I-95 4-7” with isolated 8” amounts includes Northern De NE Md Delaware County Chester County Montgomery County Berks County PHL to Trenton to Allentown. Highest amounts fall line about 20 miles west and NW of I-95 ? Think the highest will be SE of Philly at this point IMO? NJ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning? This is an easy answer: yes, I am. Can't speak for others. The biggest thing I've learned being on amwx is that a large number of folks pile onto the extreme bandwagon whenever something is progged to happen. Tornadoes, winter storms, hurricanes. Then a couple runs look bad and everyone screams bloodly murder. Then, almost always, something between "nothing" and "the best possible scenario" happens, everyone vows to be more rational moving forwards, and then apparently get amnesia and repeat the process for the next storm. In this case, the basic facts are that the models have objectively been sh*t this winter when it comes to cold, particularly in the PBL. They have consistently, with every storm we've had, suggested a rain snow line farther S&E than what actually happened. This has happened the last several years more generally. In addition, the models clearly didn't have a great handle on this storm until recently. We all thought it was headed out to sea and needed to thread the needle. Welp, it looks like it threaded the needle...it hit the phase with the northern stream. But almost every run of every model so far has moved the sfc low further N. That trend has to stop, soon, or this WILL be an issue for a lot of folks...and I don't think the forum is appreciating that risk adequately. The RPM keeps trending farther N, last I checked it had the heaviest axis up in the LV with philly just getting a couple inches...and 0...nada near the shore. Frankly I think that's more likely than the opposite with a big blast along the corridor, due to the pattern, and the model trend. As of the 00z run, it is now also showing 0" in PHL, and an axis NE to SW near Allentown gets over a foot. Now, that's one model, and I have seen it be **spectacularly** wrong before. Sometimes it picks up on things earlier than other models though. So, carry on looking at the other models. Nevertheless, I'm nervous, that trend has to stop. Otherwise by 12z tomorrow the models will all be tucked in with it. At the end of the day, my objective sense is, this could bust entirely...we could get nothing, or, the rpm could cave and move back south. It's already too late in terms of messaging now if this busts. People expect 3-6. The weenie in me hopes for the best. The meteorologist in me has questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning? If there is an elephant in the room here the air mass in place is tepid cold so it's a close call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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