Feb 7th discussion/obs

[Animal]

12z nam

[Animal]

15 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Looks like we just got NAM'd

Crushed..hammered 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Crushed..hammered 

Check out the 3k Nam

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAM 10:1 ratios likely overdone but waiting on rest of 12z.

Have a suspicion this will be a 3-6" event up here when all is said and done. Has that 'normal' winter weather event look for a change with no bells and whistles etc

[Heisy]

I’d ignore the 12km and stick with the 3km, that being said it’s still a very good hit for a progressive system. If that fgen band forms as the NAM says someone inside the max axis would have a shot at 8” of heavy wet snow as it should promote heavy rates and good snow growth

[bpjones595]

NAM 10:1 ratios likely overdone but waiting on rest of 12z.
Have a suspicion this will be a 3-6" event up here when all is said and done. Has that 'normal' winter weather event look for a change with no bells and whistles etc

I think the 3km NAM lines up with that thinking as well. Maybe a tad on the high end but definitely not the area wide 8-12”


.

[MJO812]

Rgem is more amped

[Heisy]

Rgem looks really good curious where it goes from there heh

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:

I think the 3km NAM lines up with that thinking as well. Maybe a tad on the high end but definitely not the area wide 8-12”


.

It will be a quick mover. These are one of our most common setups for snow around here. Wave forms along baroclinic wave left behind from this AM's departing system. Not saying it can't overachiever but in general thru the years I've seen these trailing waves drop a solid thump with the f gen banding then usually just lightly accumulating snow behind that also zips out quickly.

These systems are textbook...minor warning event. The very high end is probably a 5-10" for whoever gets under the best lift and has ratios....which will be a challenge in and along I 95. Just figuring out the snow axis still seems the challenge moving forward. 

Eta: the higher probability for better ratios and accums would likely favor similar areas that got hit last week in E PA. Probably will move our snow depth maps progressively farther S and E over the next 10 days btw

[Heisy]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It will be a quick mover. These are one of our most common setups for snow around here. Wave forms along baroclinic wave left behind from this AM's departing system. Not saying it can't overachiever but in general thru the years I've seen these trailing waves drop a solid thump with the f gen banding then usually just lightly accumulating snow behind that also zips out quickly.

These systems are textbook...minor warning event. The very high end is probably a 5-10" for whoever gets under the best lift and has ratios....which will be a challenge in and along I 95. Just figuring out the snow axis still seems the challenge moving forward. 

I’d favor just SE of the city right now for the isolated 8-9” pops but that could change if this trend continues

[Blue Dream]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’d favor just SE of the city right now for the isolated 8-9” pops but that could change if this trend continues

I'm going to be in Ocean City this weekend...rough commute home on Sunday morning?

[Heisy]

4 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

I'm going to be in Ocean City this weekend...rough commute home on Sunday morning?

I would certainly stay tuned as sunday am is the heaviest part of the event. It’s a heavy wet snow so might have issues sticking to the roads at first, but if it’s heavy enough it WILl stick and the large snowflakes we’ll see should stick fast once the column cools. Could make things very slippery, of course main roads always better. You’ll know once you wake up Sunday if it’s worth it

[Animal]

icon in on the storm..

[Heisy]

Icon is the new king, all hail the king

[Ralph Wiggum]

RGEM ftw!

[Heisy]

Holy crap check out icon day 6-8

[The Iceman]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Holy crap check out icon day 6-8

Can you post it? Only out to 120 on tt. Is it similar to 00z with the 3 day wave train thing going? 

[ChescoWx]

I strongly suspect Sunday will be an elevation driven event with marginal boundary layer temps at play....some folks S and E of the fall line will lose some of that accumulating snow to cooling down the column....snow depth is indeed the better way to view this event IMOH

[chrisl]

FWIW the Euro is way colder than the other models at the surface early Sunday morning before the storm starts. Wondering if its reading the snowpack depth over E.PA better than the American models. Despite the difference most modeling keeps the surface at 32 here during the actual event with soundings showing cold through the column for it to be all snow

[Animal]

+ Canadian on board.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Animal said:

+ Canadian on board.

CRAS is a pummeling. Came N and W

[MJO812]

Ukie

[The Iceman]

Overall things look pretty good for a nice 6-8 hour event that drops 3-6" for much of the area with an outside shot of 6-10" in a narrow corridor with the heaviest rates. I don't believe this will be elevation dependent, more so rate dependent when it comes to accumulation.

[The Iceman]

Based on mt Holly's afd this morning, I'd be surprised if winter storm watches go up this afternoon. They seem pretty down on the threat... Seem to think it maxes out as a general area of 1-3" at this time.

 

The long term period will begin with another coastal low that
is expected to pass close enough to the Mid Atlantic region to
bring some impactful weather. The 00z guidance did not change
much from earlier guidance, so will will continue with an
increase in precipitation probabilities across the area. All
available guidance now brings precipitation to the area, with
much of the region at least starting out as snow, with areas
along and north of the I-95 corridor remaining mostly snow
through the evening, and areas farther south, especially eastern
Maryland, much of Delaware, and southern/eastern New Jersey
changing over to rain before the precipitation ends. Farther
north and west, the QPF amounts are less where temperatures are
cold enough for all snow, while farther south and east where the
QPF amounts are higher where temperatures will warm faster. So
the current snowfall forecast does not have a large range,
generally 1-3 inches. If a northwestward trend continues, higher
amounts could shift north and westward. The best timing
currently is for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning
through early afternoon Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening, the low will continue to move far enough to our
northeast that precipitation will end across the area

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Overall things look pretty good for a nice 6-8 hour event that drops 3-6" for much of the area with an outside shot of 6-10" in a narrow corridor with the heaviest rates. I don't believe this will be elevation dependent, more so rate dependent when it comes to accumulation.

You're probably too young (maybe not born?) but back in the day Elliot Abrams would call this type of storm a "Quick Six" referring to Birds receiver Mike Quick. The storm comes in dumps a sizeable amount then races out...

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're probably too young (maybe not born?) but back in the day Elliot Abrams would call this type of storm a "Quick Six" referring to Birds receiver Mike Quick. The storm comes in dumps a sizeable amount then races out...

I remember...our most avg storm systems of the 80s decade resembled this.

Usually standard i95 dividing line, wet snow low ratios. Type of system news outlets used to (and still do?) start with 1-3" then start nudging upward. Like a few of us suggested, not a massive upside. Seems with these systems a 10" lolli is generally the highest end. Guess we'll see. 

[Birds~69]

This would be perfect for Superbowl Sunday. Storm comes in early Sun morning (3-4am?)....snows till late morning/noonish? I shovel, get my shit together by mid/late afternoon then plant my ass on the recliner for the Superbowl w/a cold one(s)...

6abc/Accuweather noon map: 

[hazwoper]

24 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Based on mt Holly's afd this morning, I'd be surprised if winter storm watches go up this afternoon. They seem pretty down on the threat... Seem to think it maxes out as a general area of 1-3" at this time.

 

The long term period will begin with another coastal low that
is expected to pass close enough to the Mid Atlantic region to
bring some impactful weather. The 00z guidance did not change
much from earlier guidance, so will will continue with an
increase in precipitation probabilities across the area. All
available guidance now brings precipitation to the area, with
much of the region at least starting out as snow, with areas
along and north of the I-95 corridor remaining mostly snow
through the evening, and areas farther south, especially eastern
Maryland, much of Delaware, and southern/eastern New Jersey
changing over to rain before the precipitation ends. Farther
north and west, the QPF amounts are less where temperatures are
cold enough for all snow, while farther south and east where the
QPF amounts are higher where temperatures will warm faster. So
the current snowfall forecast does not have a large range,
generally 1-3 inches. If a northwestward trend continues, higher
amounts could shift north and westward. The best timing
currently is for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning
through early afternoon Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening, the low will continue to move far enough to our
northeast that precipitation will end across the area

that was from 9:20am before the 12Z guidance.  I'd expect them to come up a bit and probably issue a WSWatch this afternoon.

[RedSky]

40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're probably too young (maybe not born?) but back in the day Elliot Abrams would call this type of storm a "Quick Six" referring to Birds receiver Mike Quick. The storm comes in dumps a sizeable amount then races out...

1980-1992 this was the way we got our bigger snow outside blizz 83 and the Jan 87 storm. What a horrible time to be alive for snow. The 83 storm was followed by a mild normal to above normal month melted away on the fast side and the winter was pretty much done following it. 

"the frozen mud era" 

 

 

[MJO812]

Euro is already more amplified at 30 hours

Higher heights in the east